ADK Weather today/tomorrow

[ADK Rick]

Just finished watching the band of heavy stuff come through on radar (from the comfort of my office in CT)....thinking of coming up tomorrow (fri) for some climbing (Basin/Saddleback)...anyone have any up-to-date info on how high the winds got today, how much rain or snow, ice tonight/tomorrow?

any info appreciated!

ADK Rick

 

[mavs00]

Winds are pretty tough to gage or predict. I like to use -THIS- website to predict stuff over the next 3 days or so.

It's more of an aviation tool, but it works as a descent rule of thumb for hiking. For instance, You can see that winds aloft (3000') right now at 1600 hrs UTC (remember UTC = ETS+4) over the adirondacks are around 40-55 knots (45-60 MPH). They may not be quite that high, but, you can surly bet it's blowing quite nicely right now. Toggle the time to 1800 UTC, 30 Sep 2005 (which is tomorrow at 2:00 PM) and you'll see the winds are down to zip.

You can goof around with temps too and you'll find that lows at the 3000' range will dip to about 0 C (32 F) tonight. Looking at our example of 1800 UTC, 30 Sep 2005 (2:00 PM ETS) you'll see that along with light winds you can expect temps of between 5-10 c (40-50 F).

Cool huh, I've found it very helpful (as a rule of thumb), particularly in winter. you can check things out at 6000' too for those higher summits

 

[weatherman]

So far...

a few reports of some minor-moderate wind damage with gusts to about 60 mph. There may be some pockets of blowdown. Things should improve dramatically over the next few hours. Tomorrow should be colder, but not too windy. Things should dry out quick enough to prevent much icing before it gets cold tonight (but I'd still bring some traction devices anyway as I tend to pack heavy for mental health reasons). Tomorrow should be a beauty, afternoon temps I'd guess in the 40s up high to 50s in the valleys.

This first big cold front of the season heralds more to come... they'll get stronger and wetter... bring on winter (eventually).
Weatherman

Edit: my educated guess seems to mesh with Mavs00's evidence-based forecast, whew!

 

[imarchant]

Winds are pretty tough to gage or predict. I like to use -THIS- website to predict stuff over the next 3 days or so.

It's more of an aviation tool, but it works as a descent rule of thumb for hiking. For instance, You can see that winds aloft (3000') right now at 1600 hrs UTC (remember UTC = ETS+4) over the adirondacks are around 40-55 knots (45-60 MPH). They may not be quite that high, but, you can surly bet it's blowing quite nicely right now. Toggle the time to 1800 UTC, 30 Sep 2005 (which is tomorrow at 2:00 PM) and you'll see the winds are down to zip.

You can goof around with temps too and you'll find that lows at the 3000' range will dip to about 0 C (32 F) tonight. Looking at our example of 1800 UTC, 30 Sep 2005 (2:00 PM ETS) you'll see that along with light winds you can expect temps of between 5-10 c (40-50 F).

Cool huh, I've found it very helpful (as a rule of thumb), particularly in winter. you can check things out at 6000' too for those higher summits

Good information! Another rule of thumb I use is subtract 4 Deg. F for every 1,000' vertical. So if you get a report for Lake Placid (elevation +/- 550). The temp at 3,000 would be 10 degrees cooler.

 

[ADK Rick]

Thanks!

Good info all. I'm not worried about wind tomorrow, just blowdown from today and the possibility for ice tomorrow morning. also, the forecast did mention the possibility of snow today up high.

ADK Rick

 

[mavs00]

And the cool thing is that it works over the whole US too......

Hiking Pikes Peak in Colorado this Saturday? Looks like you have cupecake conditions pushing through 12000 feet (mid 40, and light winds) at noon local time.

However be careful on Mt. Shasta in northern CA. At the same time there, your looking at winds around 50 MPH and temps in the low 30's (for wind chills in the low 10's) once you get around 12000 feet

Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet, huh.

--------------------

As for climbing those peaks, my guess is you'll be fine. btw, I actually would admit to being a little wary of wind conditions headed up the backside of Saddleback in 50+ MPH winds. Again, as for ice, you'll like hit those area after noon and given the weather Partly sunny (40-50s) and residual ice or snow probably be long gone.

Have fun.

 

[ADK Rick]

Yes, I had the cliffs in mind as part of my concern. I hope to make Basin summit by noon (anticipating a 6:30 launch from the garden, light permitting). Due to the shorter days and the fact that I will be alone, I am planning on the most direct route possible (orebed trail and return via same route)...just to be on the safe side.

Pouring right now in CT.

ADK Rick

 

[mavs00]

Hmmmmmmm, If I may suggest?

I'd consider going up via Slant rock, over Shorey and hiking basin first and them out over saddleback and down / out your original route. I suggest this for several reasons.

• Less climbing. Solo and moving at a descent pace, you reach Basin a little quicker this way (probably) and not have had to "go over" saddleback twice. It should take less time this way, NOT more. Less overall climbing too. If you haven't ever done it the trip, I'd have to say travel to the summit of Basin is easier goingvia Slant Rock than over Saddleback.
• Cliffs 1 time....... Not that they are particularly dangerous, but it certainly is the most exposed and trickiest part of the whole hike. I'd not want to go down and then back up them later, if I didn't have to, particularly solo.
• Finally, I LOVE the views provided coming up the WEST side of Basin.

Just food for thought................

 

[ADK Rick]

Mavs - funny, these are all the same considerations I was kicking around, and the one parameter that seems to differ from your advice is the amount of climbing...I cant believe the loop is less climbing, just from looking at the map...considering the extra climb/descent over the "shortcut". The orebed and back route is pretty much straight up and straight down...minimal SEL and SEG (senseless elevation loss/gain).

But I defer to those that have actually *been* there And views are always at the top of the list for importance.

ADK Rick

 

[mavs00]

My unofficial quick NG topo results

OUT and BACK (yours) - 14.5 miles / ~4000 feet

OVER Shorey short cut (mine) - ~15 miles / ~3750

A little difference, but more significant is that I think you'll find greater "ease of travel" (i.e better trail) headed up via Slant Rock / Shorey than you will going up / down the Ore Bed route. That only my opinion though.

Either way, have fun.

 

[Silverback]

My unofficial quick NG topo results

OUT and BACK (yours) - 14.5 miles / ~4000 feet

OVER Shorey short cut (mine) - ~15 miles / ~3750

A little difference, but more significant is that I think you'll find greater "ease of travel" (i.e better trail) headed up via Slant Rock / Shorey than you will going up / down the Ore Bed route. That only my opinion though.

Either way, have fun.

I absolutely second what Mavs said.

I would not want to come down the Saddleback rock wall in any case and the Shorey really isn't that bad. A better conditioned trail than Orebed, and a loop hike is always more interesting, anyway.

Looks like a great weekend. Enjoy the hike, those are two of my favorites.

 

[weatherman]

update

might want to bring along a saw... lots more reports of trees down throughout the region, though all on roads so no info on trails. Could be interesting.

 

[ADK Rick]

Excellent Advice!

Thanks for all the great input. I hiked the route Mavs and others suggested yesterday and it was great. I can see why this route is preferable...although there are plenty of steeps in both directions. I will post pics and a trip report soon.

A fair amount of ice up high.. and going *down* the north side of basin with the ice was pretty tricky, and it was darn cold on that side after the relative warmth of the open summit.

As for trees down...only saw one all day, and it was in the Garden parking lot. It fell during the day thursday and wiped out some poor person's new looking XTerra. Bummer.

ADK Rick