Avalanche Lake

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I can tell you that someone just wrote a report that one in the party fell through the ice down at the Van Ho swamp just off the Loj road.

Here
 
I wouldnt trust it this early in the season, even if it is frozen over.
 
That's nuts. Here in Saranac Lake, the lakes havent even been frozen over for more than a few days.
 
I don't know about Avalanche Lake, but people were walking across Chapel Pond this morning. But, I think the weather is suppose to be kind of warm for the next couple of days, so it could all change.
 
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It's been above freezing and rainy all day today in Saranac Lake.
 
it doesn't need to be frozen to ride a snowmobile across it - one just can't stop riding!

Excellent point! Snowmobile tracks don't always mean it's safe to snowshoe or ski across.

How fast does a snowmobile have to be moving to cross open water? [fast-forward to 0:34 ]

And what kind of skis/snowshoes (and energy drink!!!) would a person need to do the same?
 
I'm sure most folks know this but just in case.
Besides moving faster than a person( at least some of us) a person with a pack exerts more weight per sq inch on the ice than a snowmobile does, so snowmobile tracks across a frozen lake might not mean it's safe for us.

Once it gets cold and there is a substantial ice thickness, in and outflowing water moving under the ice can thin the ice substantially. If crossing a body of water you are unfamiliar with, try to avoid areas where water is moving under the ice.

Objects like tree trunks protruding from the ice or from shore that are frozen in the ice's surface can weaken the nearby ice. The tree bark absorbs more heat than the reflective snowy surface and the ice may not be as thick nearby. Late in the winter season, the sun gets higher and warmer. The sun melts the snow on the shore and the soil absorbs heat, warming and eventually melting the ice nearby. I've crossed onto frozen lakes at 5am on a warm late Feb day only to find open water sometime requiring a running broad jump to get back to shore late in the afternoon.
Anytime I cross frozen water, I unbuckle my pack and sternum straps and loosen the shoulder straps. You don't want to be under the ice trying to surface or get out with a pack pulling you down.

I know this didn't answer the OP, but thought I'd throw it out there.
Usually, once there is a heavy sheet of ice on a lake, a day or even a few days of rain usually does nothing but pool and then freeze on top of the existing ice. Unsettling to walk on as you can keep falling thru the top skim of recently frozen rain.
 
give the HPIC a call (518-523-3441) and they will give you a current Ranger report on whether or not the ice is safe.

The rangers will never say the ice is safe - the standard recommendation is to stay off the ice. I advise that you just go and if there are no footprints there, use the trail.
 
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