gambling w/ the weather this week

[arghman]

argh... I need some advice w/ weather. Was planning on staying at one of the AMC huts this wk, was holding off on reservations until a few days prior because of weather conditions.

NOAA forecast for Gorham/Berlin/Lincoln is for all days chances of thunderstorms except Weds.

I'm probably going to try to hike up Tues afternoon & stay that night in hopes of getting a good day Weds.

Who's got experience in hiking when there's a likelihood of thunderstorms? I won't go hiking above treeline w/ T-storms, but if I'm below treeline, how worried should I be?

 

[jbreen]

It's a coin toss...

You're right to be worried about being above treeline in a t/storm, but I find that when the weather turns hot (85+F), t/storms are forecast almost everyday. Most of the time it's a non-event. When the probability is > 50% or severe storms are called for, then the debate is over because I hike with my family.

This time of year, I do check the NOAA forecasts morning and night for they seem to change often.

 

[Quietman]

Wednesday definitely looks like the best day this week.
Whenever I am above treeline, I always keep an eye on the western sky where most storms approach from. From most places, you should be able to retreat before the storms are on top of you. Afternoon's are the best bet for active storms.

Have fun!! Hope your foot's better!

 

[Amicus]

Thunderstorms on top - Transistor radio gambit

Brent Scudder, who had to spend many a long summer hour above treeline compiling his excellent White Mountain View Guide and who was once a professional meteorologist, came up with the idea of bringing an old-fashioned AM transistor radio, for those situations where a storm came up suddenly and he couldn't see the lightning. By dialing to a spot without a station, he could hear the loud crackle of static at each flash, then count the delay until the thunder to enable calculation of the distance. He goes into this in a little detail in one of the appendices to his 2d Ed., published last year.

Needless to say, he doesn't recommend being above treeline when a thunderstorm seems imminent, but it that somehow happens, a transistor could be handy. You might even be able to catch the Sox!

 

[Waumbek]

"Eye on the Sky" forecast agrees that Wednesday may be the best chance this week. The forecast covers western NH, but whatever happens here will most likely drift east to the Prezzies. (There's a "recreation" tab for hikers on this page, but its forecast doesn't extend beyond one day, which says a lot about mountain weather variablilty.) Tuesday p.m. still looks dicey. Hiking above or below treeline in t-storms can be as scary as ****.

 

[weatherman]

One word about this week: Morning. Really, other than Wednesday, you stand a good chance of an electrifying experience if you're up high between 12-7 PM. Been there, done that. A lot. Below treeline the risk is less, of course, but I've been on ridges and seen lightning strike below me in valleys on occasion too. Some of it is getting used to it and deciding how much fun you can have with a little risk.

How's this idea: Hike up to the hut, arrive by lunchtime, procrastinate, eat an early dinner, then do an evening hike if the weather looks good. Sleep, rinse, repeat.

Enjoy.
Weatherman

 

[Mohamed Ellozy]

In Colorado the summer forecast is the same day after day: Sunny early in the morning, developping clouds around mid-morning and possibility of afternoon thunderstorms. So smart hikers start very early and plan to be below treeline by noon or shortly thereafter, keeping a watchful eye on the sky all the time. What if you get heavy rain below treeline? Well, that is why you bought raingear and brought it with you

Last night the forecast for the Lincoln area called for possible thunderstorms after noon (this morning's forecast put them off to mid-afternoon, but I made my plans last night). So I was at Lafayette campground at 7:15, then went up Falling Waters and over the ridge, safely in the hut by 11:47.

 

[Mike P.]

As others said, plan an early start

Try & pick a route to the hut in question that gets there with the minimal amount of time above treeline. (Valley Way for Madison, Ammo for LOC, OBP for Greenleaf) Then early the next morn go explore above treeline with the idea you'll be near the hut or heading down by early afternoon.

 

[arghman]

righto, it's Mizpah Hut & the debate was whether to
(a) be stupid & try to hike up Tues afternoon/evening amid likely T-storms
(b) get up there early Tues morning, hang around & enjoy the thunderstorms from within the hut, then enjoy a nice Weds.
(c) hike Weds & enjoy a (hopefully) nice day, stay at the hut, then hike down quickly Thurs before bad weather kicks in

(edit: so thanks everybody for steering me towards a sane & probably safe decision)

I ended up choosing (c) and not (b); I think I would have been very fidgety hanging around the hut for a few hours.

If anyone is interested in hiking Pierce or Eisenhower on Weds (esp. if you can give me a ride from the Crawford Path trailhead to Edmands Path ), PM me, I may be a little slow but it's a nice area to enjoy slowness.

 

[Waumbek]

NOAA forecast for Gorham/Berlin/Lincoln is for all days chances of thunderstorms except Weds.

NOAA is 1 for 4 so far. A very classy T-storm rolled through Franconia at 4.50 p.m. It was the first big one of the year. By 6 p.m., it had dumped about .75 inches of rain. No hail but crashing thumpers and crackling bolts; I think some fire crews were activated. All the e-hikers at home ran and disconnected their computers from power sources. I hope the real-time hikers up on the Ridge made it to cover.

 

[Jeff-B]

The warm air mass is generally out of the west/southwest with very warm temps for a few days. These are perfect conditions for thunderstorm activity which develops during the afternoon as temps rise. Very unstabile air.

On Thursday, according to models, it looks like a back-door cold front moves in and pushes the warm air far to the south for a few days, which will offer more relief from T-storms after the front passes, but kicks them off big time as the front is passing.
Then warm air rebounds late weekend and we do it all again.
Normal Summer business!

This is my best map site fro those who understand the graphics.

NOAA Maps

 

[Mohamed Ellozy]

A very classy T-storm rolled through Franconia at 4.50 p.m. It was the first big one of the year. By 6 p.m., it had dumped about .75 inches of rain.

We got it around 5:30 south of the notch and lost power for several hours. Impressive, glad I was not on a ridge! More of the same predicted for today.

 

[forestgnome]

Whenever I am above treeline, I always keep an eye on the western sky where most storms approach from. From most places, you should be able to retreat before the storms are on top of you.

This is true, however I once was hammered by hail and lightning while hiking just south of Mt Monroe as a dark mass of clouds slowly approached from the SW. Those stormclouds were miles away, and overhead was only a haze, when the terror started.

 

[Waumbek]

NOAA forecast for Gorham/Berlin/Lincoln is for all days chances of thunderstorms except Weds.

Make that 2 for 4. Today's t-storms came as two cells, one around 2.30 pm, one at 5.30 pm. Both were briefer that yesterday's, but the latter contained hail and damaging winds. Temps have dropped to high 50s. Arghman, you made the right call on today.

 

[Mohamed Ellozy]

Today's t-storms came as two cells, one around 2.30 pm, one at 5.30 pm. Both were briefer that yesterday's, but the latter contained hail and damaging winds.

South of the notch we basically missed both. We sure heard a few boomers, and there were very brief periods of heavy rain and high winds (I lost my phone line for about half an hour) but we got nothing serious. It was interesting to watch on the radar; it was fairly clear that both cells would miss us, but close enough that I powered off my computer twice .