Northern Presidentials on Saturday, 1/23/2010

[BIGEarl]

With cooperative weather conditions, on Saturday, 1/23, we’re planning to hike the Northern Presidentials; Madison, Adams, and Jefferson.

We plan to start early from Appalachia and hike an out-and-back. With the current conditions we expect the hike to run ~25% over book time.

I realize it's still early but Saturday is looking pretty good at this point. If the weather does not cooperate we have a couple very good alternate hikes lined up.

If you’re interested in joining the fun or want additional details; please respond to this thread or by PM.

 

[BIGEarl]

Quick update.... (in case you're interested)

I normally use several National Weather Service sites and a couple commercial sites when planning. After making the rounds this morning the Saturday predictions are all starting to converge.

Forecast for Saturday really looks like a Northern Presidentials kind of day. The wind prediction is down to a very comfortable level from the north/northwest, probability of precipitation is under 10% all day, high temperature is predicted at ~19 degrees, sky cover is way under 10% all day. Hopefully the snow consolidates this week and we have a Styrofoam surface to enjoy (anything that gives good snowshoe support would be great).

Unless there's a huge change we're on for the hike.

Where are my sunglasses?

 

[stu]

Hey Earl, pm sent. Stu

 

[Paradox]

Do you have a specific start time? I like around 7:00 am. Presumably Valley Way up and down.

 

[Paradox]

The expected wind speeds have increased considerably since last night.

 

[BIGEarl]

Do you have a specific start time? I like around 7:00 am. Presumably Valley Way up and down.

We normally hike a moderate pace, which is around book time or a little more. Planning for a total hike time of 125% of book time provides a cushion for breaks, pictures, etc. and is often where we finish.

Based on the White Mountain Guide printed edition (the numbers are different for the on-line edition), the loop from Appalachia to Jefferson and back comes in at 6400 feet, 14.3 miles, and a book time of 10hr 20min. (total @ 125% = 13hr).

We are planning to arrive at Appalachia for 5:30am and get started. This should have us back to the trailhead around 6:30pm, or perhaps a little earlier.

We’ll have a little headlight time on each end of the hike and a great day above the treeline in between.

 

[Paradox]

5:30am is just fine with me. I am leaving from Holderness, NH at about 4:00 am. Anybody, want to carpool from here? (here = WGS 84, 19 T 286225 4848591)

 

[BIGEarl]

5:30am is just fine with me. I am leaving from Holderness, NH at about 4:00 am. Anybody, want to carpool from here? (here = WGS 84, 19 T 286225 4848591)

Great! See you in the morning.

 

[stu]

Headed up to Gorham in a few hours. Weather looks tremendous. See ya!
Cheers, Stu

 

[BIGEarl]

Headed up to Gorham in a few hours. Weather looks tremendous. See ya!
Cheers, Stu

Terrific! We have a good group coming together for the day and as you stated, the weather looks tremendous!

See you in the morning.

 

[Paradox]

With the wind forecast I am going to hike something below the treeline. I appologize for my on again-off again.

John

 

[BIGEarl]

With the wind forecast I am going to hike something below the treeline. I appologize for my on again-off again.

John

John,

Thanks for letting me know.

I'm a little curious about what you see that I'm missing. The National Weather Service is forecasting low winds for the day tomorrow at 6288. Weather.com is also predicting low winds for the day (under 20mph all day on the summit of Washington and we'll be generally 1000 feet below the summit elevation). The NWS Winds Aloft forecast predicts low winds at 6000 feet and very low winds at 3000 feet of roughly 10mph.

What am I missing?

 

[Paradox]

Lately, I have been going with the NOAA site:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...4921875&site=btv&smap=1&marine=1&unit=0&lg=en

They had been predicting 8-10 mph for the summit of Mt Washington until this morning then the prediction went up to 33 -45 mpg, gusts to 60.

I am just checking it now (8 pm) so I could show you, and now the wind speed prediction is down to 8 mph.

I think it was Mark Twain who said "Predictions can be very difficult, particularly those involving the future."