Trail to the Santanoni's
Good memory, rhihn. There is a sudden drop in the trail, about 60 feet or so, during which there are two downed trees to go around or over, (one of each as I recall) and then the trail comes to a low area, which starts the muddiest part. It's another 10-15 minutes or so from there to the start of the herd path, when it really gets muddy. The herd path is on State land, as opposed to the old route to Santanoni, which wasn't - See our friend James Burnside's description of his trip up Santanoni.
The path from the start of the herd path up the trail to the lean-to is the muddiest, sloppiest, wettest trail I have ever been on. I just got back from a three day trip, which called for 4 passes over this trail - and it is a trip. On our way in Sunday, Scoutmaster Tom missed a log and went in to the base of his butt. He said he was lucky to get some purchase with his poles, or I would have had to go over and help him out.
By the way, on our return from Panther and Santanoni on Monday, we saw a very clear foot print from what we think was a medium sized bear in the path - and it had not been there at 7:30 in the morning when we started our hike.
The trail up Panther Brook wasn't too bad to Times Square, but there were some first class mud slogs on the way over to Panther, and a whole bunch more on the way from Times Square over to Santanoni.
Granted, it had rained for three days before we got there, but I have been on this trail 3 separate times now, over several years, and while most of the trail from the Upper works up isn't too bad, especially in a dry year, the stretch between the cairn and the lean-to is never dry. Bring your long gaiters, extra dry socks, and a sense of humor if you go.