Southern Presidentials - 3/9/2008 (Date Change)

[BIGEarl]

How about a late winter hike to the Southern Presidentials? (Monroe, Eisenhower, Pierce, and Jackson) on Saturday, March 9.

There are a couple of us interested in hitting the Southern Presidentials before the end of winter. The plan will be to meet at trailhead for the Webster-Jackson Trail in Crawford Notch to spot a vehicle, or more. Then we’ll head to Marshfield Station and hike a traverse back to Crawford Notch.

The expected route is Ammonoosuc Ravine Trail, Crawford Path, Webster Cliff Trail, and Webster-Jackson Trail, plus the summit loops for Monroe and Eisenhower. Anybody not interested in hitting the summits of Monroe or Eisenhower can follow the Crawford Path and we can plan a re-group on the “far side”. The distance and elevation including the summit loops for Monroe and Eisenhower are 11.8 miles and 3750 feet.

There are good bail-out opportunities at Pierce, via the Crawford Path, and the Mizpah Hut via the Mizpah Cutoff and Crawford Path.

Swiss Bobs? Bring ‘em if you got ‘em. The trail leading down to the Mizpah Hut and the trail off Jackson should be a blast.

Snowshoes and crampons are required.

The target meet time in Crawford Notch is 6:30am with an on-trail target of 7:00am. We will hike a moderate pace which should have us back to Crawford Notch and the Webster-Jackson trailhead around 5:00pm. Sunset is 5:44pm and may mean another winter hike without headlights, but bring one just in case we run late. For reference, the “book time” on this hike is 7hr 50min (I like to plan 25% over in winter).

Because of the amount of exposure between the Lakes of the Clouds Hut and Mount Pierce this is a weather-sensitive hike. We’ll be watching the forecasts closely as they develop through the week for suitable conditions. The early long-range indications are really good.

If you’re interested in joining this hike please respond to this thread or by PM or email.

 

[MattS]

Hey, I am interested (depending on the weather). I just sent you a PM.

Matt

 

[BIGEarl]

Date changed to Sunday - March 9.

The weather forecast shows Sunday as the better day this weekend. Let's plan to hike the Southern Predidentials on Sunday instead - meeting place and time remain the same.

See you in Crawford Notch.

Earl

 

[Jason Berard]

sounds good Earl! see you at the Highland Ctr. lot no later than 6:30am!

 

[Paradox]

Sunday is good for me it will be nice to meet you. See you at the Webster/Jackson parking lot at 6:30 with bells on.

 

[MadRiver]

sounds good Earl! see you at the Highland Ctr. lot no later than 6:30am!

We will be meeting at the Webster/Jackson parking lot which is the last parking lot after the Depot on your right before you head down the steep hill on 302.

 

[Jason Berard]

got it. see you guys there.

 

[BIGEarl]

Reminder: We make the change to Daylight Saving Time on Saturday Night/Sunday Morning.


6:30am on Sunday will probably feel like 5:30am.

 

[Puck]

I am checking with the wife on this one...I think I have enough points saved up.

It would be good to meet some of you characters

 

[Jason Berard]

I just picked up a Swiss-Bob....or "A$& Shingle of Death" as New Hampshire coined it, and I'm bringin' it sunday!!

 

[BIGEarl]

I just picked up a Swiss-Bob....or "A$& Shingle of Death" as New Hampshire coined it, and I'm bringin' it sunday!!

There's a good chance you'll be first to Mizpah.

 

[Paradox]

Hey Jason, where did you get your Shingle of Death? If I can I would like to pick one up for Sunday.

 

[Jason Berard]

I went to EMS, which usually has them, but they were all out.
They sent me next door to The Rugged Bear, which did still have some in stock, but not on sale...

 

[BIGEarl]

Update:

The latest forecast is showing a wind speed of ~30 knots (~35mph) from the west for noon on Sunday. The other key areas such as temperature, probability of precipitation, and sky cover are all acceptable. I’ll continue to watch the forecast closely.


Assuming everybody can deal with the time change, here is Sunday’s target list of hikers:

Planned Full Hike:
1Happyhiker (possible)
BIGEarl
Bunchberry (possible)
Jason Berard
MADRiver
Onestep (possible)
Paradox
Silverfox
Whichway
zman (possible)

Abbreviated Hike:
Kevin, Judy, and Emma (Monroe only)

Extended Hike:
Possibly two that will head for Washington from the hut


Are there any others interested in the hike?

 

[Kevin Judy and Emma]

Rain

Keep your fingers crossed there isn't too much rain overnight and into tomorrow. Crossing Monroe Brook can be tricky enough without any swelling.

MWO says it will be rain on the summits and an icy mix in the valleys as the cold air is trapped below by a warmer layer above. Then, of course, things will freeze, so it is probable we will be switching to crampons before the summit of Monroe.

KDT

 

[BIGEarl]

Today:
In the clouds with rain, possibly changing to freezing rain. Wind chills 15-25 above.
Highs: mid 30s°F
Wind: W shifting SE 20-35 mph, increasing to 30-45 mph w/ higher gusts likely

Tonight:
In the cloudys w/ rain gradually changing to snow. Wind chills 10 above, deteriorating to 25 below.
Lows: around 0°F
Wind: SE shifting W at 40-60 mph, increasing to 60-75 mph w/ higher gusts

Tomorrow:
In the clouds w/ a chance of snow and snow showers. Wind chills 35 - 45 below.
Highs: falling to middle singles below 0°F
Wind: W shifting NW at 65-85 mph w/ higher gusts

I was looking forward to seeing you two again.

Just curious, what weather source are you quoting? It seems that I'm missing something.

In the quoted forecast, "Tomorrow" probably means the full 24 hour period, but there is no way to know. The forecast conditions are possibly the worse to be experienced during the period, which would be the normal approach. Our interest is really from around 7:00am to 7:00pm. An hourly forecast give the opportunity to see the expected conditions during the target time window, and the trends coming in and going out.

I have taken another close look at the various hourly forecasts. The National Weather Service is forecasting a fairly constant wind for the summit of Mt. Washington in the mid-30's mph all day. Weather.com shows mid-30's to low 40's mph all day. Wunderground.com shows high-20's to low 30's mph all day. Even Accuweather.com shows the winds coming down to the upper 30's mph by late morning and then really falling off in the afternoon. The NWS Meteorological Development Lab MET forecast shows winds building late in the day, well after we have cleared Pierce and possibly after we're out.

Additionally, the National Weather Service shows a significant drop in wind level with elevation. In other words the forecast winds at 4000 - 5000 feet elevation is quite a bit less than the forecast for 6,288 feet (Mt. Washington summit). Our hike is planned for the lower areas. I can understand a reluctance to venture to the summit of Washington but the area to the south has a significantly lower elevation and lower forecast wind conditions.

What am I missing?

Everybody has their own comfort zone. These forecasts are all within my comfort zone.

Next time.

 

[bobandgeri]

Mount Washington Observatroy Higher Summits Forecast

 

[BIGEarl]

Thanks Tom,

You're absolutely not a pain to hike with - at least to me. I've enjoyed every hike we have taken together and look forward to our next adventure. I am also very favorably impressed with the care and concern you give to Atticus. Others could learn a great deal from you.

At the time I was unaware of the source of the weather information. Now I know.

Thanks again.
Earl

 

[BIGEarl]

Final check, are we still on for 6:30am tomorrow?

 

[Jason Berard]

I'll be there at 6:30am.....