Lost Hiker - Crawford Path Parking lot

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Not living here my entire life and only 20 yrs I'm sort of bewildered how they keep coming and going. I just told an out of state friend how we get them dieing all the time year in year out and here we are. Still not used to it although on the Cape or New England shores many are lost as well still. Sort of the same thing I guess. Seems easier to survive on land then when issues arise on the ocean. Can't walk out there.
 
CaptCaper said:
Not living here my entire life and only 20 yrs I'm sort of bewildered how they keep coming and going. I just told an out of state friend how we get them dieing all the time year in year out and here we are. Still not used to it although on the Cape or New England shores many are lost as well still. Sort of the same thing I guess. Seems easier to survive on land then when issues arise on the ocean. Can't walk out there.
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I grew up in the White mountains, there is nothing easy about them if you run into trouble, hence the many deaths you have heard about. The problem with the Presidential Range in regards to getting in trouble is the drainages are extremely dangerous. If he wandered off trail down into Oaks Gulf, the Great Gulf or any of the others, he might never be found. It's rocky, thick and cliffy. I always had one mantra while escaping off the Range in bad weather, get to a trail, any trail, trails are your lifeline to civilization.
 
Not knowing for sure his ability or destination, everything is speculation. The note mentioned Jefferson or Adams. But starting there doesn't make sense if that was his plan. Quite a few years ago someone ended up in the Dry River Wilderness after taking the Mt. Clinton Tr. Some people know Pierce was called Mt. Clinton. This is certainly a possibility. Someone could get all kinds of screwed up if descending that trail now. It wasn't that long ago that there were 2 lost hikers, both on the way to Washington. One ended up in Madison Gulf. The other, Great Gulf. If one has a map, and can read it, you have to wonder how anyone could descend a thousand feet or more when they should clearly be ascending. Yet, it happens.
 
sierra said:
I grew up in the White mountains, there is nothing easy about them if you run into trouble, hence the many deaths you have heard about. The problem with the Presidential Range in regards to getting in trouble is the drainages are extremely dangerous. If he wandered off trail down into Oaks Gulf, the Great Gulf or any of the others, he might never be found. It's rocky, thick and cliffy. I always had one mantra while escaping off the Range in bad weather, get to a trail, any trail, trails are your lifeline to civilization.
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I never, even as an amateur starting out years back, understood the logic behind going down into a drainage area as an "escape" route. I can understand descending to a point to find shelter and ride out some truly horrific weather. But traveling on steep, scrubby slopes like that with no trail is tediously slow, quite dangerous and often leads to a much longer walk out to safety, increasing the chances of exposure, batteries in a headlamp dying, or some other problem. I always felt that being on any trail, even if exposed to severe weather, was a safer option.
 
JustJoe said:
Not knowing for sure his ability or destination, everything is speculation. The note mentioned Jefferson or Adams. But starting there doesn't make sense if that was his plan. Quite a few years ago someone ended up in the Dry River Wilderness after taking the Mt. Clinton Tr. Some people know Pierce was called Mt. Clinton. This is certainly a possibility. Someone could get all kinds of screwed up if descending that trail now. It wasn't that long ago that there were 2 lost hikers, both on the way to Washington. One ended up in Madison Gulf. The other, Great Gulf. If one has a map, and can read it, you have to wonder how anyone could descend a thousand feet or more when they should clearly be ascending. Yet, it happens.
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I wondered about that too. I like taking wacky loops/routes all over big mountains but I'm not sure I ever did Jefferson or Adams leaving from the Crawford Lot. That is a pretty long walk even for a fit and experienced hiker. I wonder about the timing of when that note was jotted down and when he wound up in the Crawford Lot. Seems like a stretch but of course they have very little to work with so I suppose they have to explore every option.
 
DayTrip said:
I never, even as an amateur starting out years back, understood the logic behind going down into a drainage area as an "escape" route. I can understand descending to a point to find shelter and ride out some truly horrific weather. But traveling on steep, scrubby slopes like that with no trail is tediously slow, quite dangerous and often leads to a much longer walk out to safety, increasing the chances of exposure, batteries in a headlamp dying, or some other problem. I always felt that being on any trail, even if exposed to severe weather, was a safer option.
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Sounds like you started out with a sound mind and good decision making, even as an amateur. I believe in most cases of tragedy, the wrong decision at a key time can send someone down the rabbit hole and they can't recover from one bad choice. The few times I have had a crisis in the mountains, the first thing I did was to stop, sit down and take a breather. Get a drink, eat something, then attack the problem with calm logic. Getting below treeline is an important step in bad weather up high and people make the mistake of doing that without a trail and that is a critical mistake. Panic completely impairs your logical mind. I got caught out in bad weather with someone last year and the first thing they said was, "we need to turn around". I thought about it for a minute and to me, continuing the loop and descending a longer but easier route in bad weather made more sense. The footing was better, the route had no cliffy sections like we climbed up and we would have complete cover from a deep forest from the storm. She reluctantly agreed, more because I was not turning around and no way she was leaving on her own. She ultimately agreed we went the right way later when the sun came out and we had a beautiful walk down. I am primarily a soloist, I like being a dictator out there and doing what I want without being diplomatic, it has served me well for 40+ years of classic routes.
 
sierra said:
Sounds like you started out with a sound mind and good decision making, even as an amateur. I believe in most cases of tragedy, the wrong decision at a key time can send someone down the rabbit hole and they can't recover from one bad choice. The few times I have had a crisis in the mountains, the first thing I did was to stop, sit down and take a breather. Get a drink, eat something, then attack the problem with calm logic. Getting below treeline is an important step in bad weather up high and people make the mistake of doing that without a trail and that is a critical mistake. Panic completely impairs your logical mind. I got caught out in bad weather with someone last year and the first thing they said was, "we need to turn around". I thought about it for a minute and to me, continuing the loop and descending a longer but easier route in bad weather made more sense. The footing was better, the route had no cliffy sections like we climbed up and we would have complete cover from a deep forest from the storm. She reluctantly agreed, more because I was not turning around and no way she was leaving on her own. She ultimately agreed we went the right way later when the sun came out and we had a beautiful walk down. I am primarily a soloist, I like being a dictator out there and doing what I want without being diplomatic, it has served me well for 40+ years of classic routes.
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Yes, being solo does have it's advantages in my opinion. I still do 90% of my hiking alone but over the past few years I've picked up a few semi-regular hiking partners and it seems quite important to have the same general interests, risk tolerance and thought process. I definitely find both people I hike with to be on the same page with the types of hiking we like, when to stop, when we want to push versus enjoying the scenery, etc.

I've been fortunate to not have many adverse situations with either of them. On the few occasions when things got a little sketchy we were in sync on what we were thinking and what the plan should be. I always make it clear that I'm perfectly happy calling it a day if they think they're not feeling safe or comfortable and I think they would do the same for me. I think I would be pretty demonstrative about disagreements. It's one thing to argue about the color of a new sofa. It is quite another to debate life threatening matters....
 
I have had three folks I consider hiking partners and many folks I go hiking with. IMHO, until we get to the point where we could look at each other on a crappy day and say to each other "nope, let's go get a beer" is when they transition to a true hiking partner.
 
Over in the Facebook The 4000 Footer Club group, someone posted about the missing hiker, "...I hiked with him a lot in the 2013-2016 era. He finished his NEHH with me on Elephant in 2015. Bill had been an AMC leader during that period and a little later...."

There's a picture of him with both a compass around his neck and a Garmin on his pack strap. Sounds like he has experience, knowledge and skills in the mountains.

Here's the link, you'll need a fb account and be in the group to see it:
www.facebook.com/groups/16316918492/permalink/10161470395353493/
 
Who knows what happened here, and hopefully the hiker turns up unharmed, but it is so important to bring snowshoes this time of year when hiking in/above the remaining deep snowpack so that you have a fighting chance to get out if you need to unexpectedly bail.
 
Sadly, in cases like this (apparently experienced hiker, important gear left behind) I think of Guy Waterman. He sent letters to friends however, informing them of his plans, in part to avoid unnecessary S&R efforts.
 
JustJoe said:
Not knowing for sure his ability or destination, everything is speculation. The note mentioned Jefferson or Adams. But starting there doesn't make sense if that was his plan. Quite a few years ago someone ended up in the Dry River Wilderness after taking the Mt. Clinton Tr. Some people know Pierce was called Mt. Clinton. This is certainly a possibility. Someone could get all kinds of screwed up if descending that trail now. It wasn't that long ago that there were 2 lost hikers, both on the way to Washington. One ended up in Madison Gulf. The other, Great Gulf. If one has a map, and can read it, you have to wonder how anyone could descend a thousand feet or more when they should clearly be ascending. Yet, it happens.
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Is it possible that he was planning to hike back to his car, and stashed it there before hitching a ride to his actual starting point for an abbreviated Presi traverse?
 
At this point it is pure speculation. F&G has standard assumptions that they use to start S&R. F&G stated that the risk to rescue teams exceeded the potential for a rescue due to snow conditions. My guess is they assume the hiker's remains are off trail and given the large potential area it is going to requires a major effort to search all the drainages. If they get lucky someone will find a clue like discarded gear to narrow the search area.
 
Mac said:
Is it possible that he was planning to hike back to his car, and stashed it there before hitching a ride to his actual starting point for an abbreviated Presi traverse?
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Interesting. I wonder if that's an hypothesis the authorities have thought of. I don't know how much news coverage this has had, so I suppose if someone gave him a lift they may not be aware of this. This also could work from the other direction. Possibly could have started on the Webster Cliff Trail to head north. Prime example of how important it is to leave your itinerary with someone.
 
JustJoe said:
Interesting. I wonder if that's an hypothesis the authorities have thought of. I don't know how much news coverage this has had, so I suppose if someone gave him a lift they may not be aware of this. This also could work from the other direction. Possibly could have started on the Webster Cliff Trail to head north. Prime example of how important it is to leave your itinerary with someone.
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It was the first thing I thought of when I combined "note mentioning Adams" and "car found in Crawford lot". But we don't know when he wrote that note, or why, or whether he changed his mind at any point after writing the note. It's already a pretty big change to go from "hike up Adams" to "nearly-complete Presi Traverse", especially this time of year. He might have changed it to "visit Mt Tom" or "bushwhack to Silver Cascade" just as easily.
 
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