I finally met Mats on Carrigain yesterday (see my report under NH Trail Conditions). I was about an hour behind him near the summit, but not sure what time he started at Rt. 302, as we only took about 5 minutes to discuss strategies, etc. I do know that he ski skates well, from his tracks that I followed in and out on Sawyer River Road. He also wears ski googles on brushy trails, such as Signal Ridge, for eye protection. Although I feel that I still do not understand some people that I have known for years, my quick read on Mats is that he is one of the most unassuming and down-to-earth guys that I have ever met. He had pretty talented company on his first day's effort with Mark Synnott (a world-class mountaineer) on the Presi traverse, and anyone who quotes Hermann Buhl as Mats does in his posts is ok in my book.
However, I am afraid that the warm temperatures have turned against his winter record attempt, as the snowpack is rotting out fast, even under the well-packed trails. In the time it took me to hike up and down Carrigain (7 hr, 20 min, including walking the road), all of the snow bridges across streams had opened up, and I was sinking in 6-12 inches and deeper with every step in my Denali's on the Carrigain Notch Trail on the way out (Mats is using even smaller snowshoes). On three occasions while snowshoing the Carrigain Notch Trail, I heard the disconcerting sounds "whoompfff" as the snowpack settled all around me (such sounds are absolutely frightening in avalanche terrain, hence engrained in my brain from years of back-country ski adventures in the West). The rain began to fall about when I reached the Signal Ridge - Carrigain Notch Trail junction, just to add insult, and continued into the night. Thus, I am not surprised Mats turned around on the Willey Range last evening. Although switching to night-time hiking might help a little, what he really needs is a dramatic drop in temperature to freeze up the snowpack, without accompaniment by the forecast snowfall beginning tomorrow.
The Garfield-Galehead-Twins-Zealand-Bonds strategy is a good one, I think, perhaps better for the last day/night push, as it avoids most serious stream crossings. Such a strategy as this one, or one combining a descent of the Lincoln slide to connect Franconia Ridge and Owls Head (under better snow conditions), is what it will take to break the winter record, in my opinion.
Good luck, Mats, as you need it with the hand the weather gods have dealt you the past two days.
