Climate Change in the Northeast

[forestgnome]

On the "chainsaw a new view" thread, a poster claimed that only 0.1% of climate scientists disagreed with the theory of human-caused global warming, and that the 0.1% group of scientists were bought off by the energy companies. Would the poster please site evidence of either part of that statement here on this more appropriate thread? Thanks.

 

[w7xman]

As a scientist with a specialty close to the subject, it may suprise you to hear that to me, global warming is a secondary thought.

A warming planet over the next century is perhaps the least of the evils to the atmosphere and environment that we are doing to ourselves by burning fossil fuels. Somehow the epidemic rates of childhood asthma, air unfit for the elderly to go outside into, and high ozone health alert days for everyone seems to have gotten lost in the debate as to whether or not its going to snow in New England in 100 years.

Yes, WE are all contributing to climate shifts that wil have incredible ecological and economic effects on our world, but we are causing much worse immediate health effects to ourselves in the near term. You would think that someone would bring that issue back to the forefront in this political ping-pong match over efficiency standards.

As someone who grew up in New Jersey and who thinks New Hampshire air is clean; someone who has been afflicted with asthma since I was young, my health is more important to me than my science. It's just fortunate that there is one solution to both of the problems that I care deeply about. But yes, I drive my car to work...

 

[w7xman]

Back to the science...

And, for further reading on how climate has changed in New England, here's some great further reading...

http://inhale.unh.edu/Climate/index.html

 

[prino]

Bumper sticker recently seen on a Mercedes Smart Car in Montreal "It aint size that counts"

 

[bikehikeskifish]

D'Oh. Thanks for the chemistry refresher... Been a long time (apologies to Led Zeppelin)

Tim

 

[Pete_Hickey]

A shift of this has already occurred once, between 1960 and present. Would not be surprised to see a shift of this magnitude occur again by 2050. The impact of having little/no snow, at least in northern NE, has a big impact on when gardens can be planted in the spring.

what is real scary, is that the change may be non-linear. We could reach a point where things change VERY fast. Humans, in general are not used to non-linear things.

Me... When I drive, I drive a feul efficient car. However, I'll go for weeks at a time without driving. I commute to work by bicycle, cycling about 4,000 miles a year (for commuting... recreational cycling is in addition to this.)

But here's the question.... Do I do it because I'm trying to 'do my part', or do I do it because I'm cheap?

 

[Woody]

I want a hydrogen powered car!

 

[funkyfreddy]

A shift of this has already occurred once, between 1960 and present.

Which is the app. span of my lifetime, having lived all of it in the NE. When I was a child we used to get snow every year on Long Island and it would stick around for weeks.....

Nowadays on LI we will get a freak winter snow storm then have the temperatures go into the 60's again a day or 2 later..... I'm not a scientist but I do know that it's quite dumb to ignore the evidence of one's senses.....

My senses and experiences tell me that 1. yes, the weather seems to be getting warmer and 2. the weather patterns/seasonal changes are growing more chaotic.....

I would recommend that everyone here reading or participating on this thread watch "An Inconvenient Truth", which states its case quite well for a mainstream film.

 

[dug]

No offense or anything but it seems like you really like to hate that hypothetical Subaru. Most people are merely trying to get through life as best they can.

Not sure what you mean, but I don't like to hate anything. I just think it can be comical that someone can pull up in a car, claiming to be an environmentalist, put crappy gas in their car which has never seen a tuneup, drive it for hundreds of miles to walk in the woods, and then blame someone else for the air temperature.

 

[Neil]

But here's the question.... Do I do it because I'm trying to 'do my part', or do I do it because I'm cheap?

We will see large scale changes when being green saves people green. Only then. How quickly would there be less garbage if it cost money, by the pound, to have it hauled away from your house?

(Or would people throw their trash all over the place, like into the river, to save the money?)

 

[Gris]

For those who are truly forward thinking, the Q is not whether we have global warming or what is the cause (those Qs HAVE been answered). The Q is what to do about it. Has anyone else here read "The Long Emergency?" It is the only book (of many) I've read on this subject that attempts to both logically forecast what is going to happen and when as well as debunk all the MYTHS about what magic bullets will save us (e.g., the bad joke that is the Hydrogen car, etc.). I was recently referred to "The Weather Makers" as yet another watershed book on the topic but have yet to read it.

 

[bikehikeskifish]

We will see large scale changes when being green saves people green. Only then. How quickly would there be less garbage if it cost money, by the pound, to have it hauled away from your house?

(Or would people throw their trash all over the place, like into the river, to save the money?)

Both.

You are spot-on Neil. The best solutions are usually market based, and better still if it is not a mandated market solution (saving on an imposed fee.) Bottle bills are a perfect example of this--if someone choses to litter their bottles or cans, it creates an opportunity for someone else to make money, and thus they get cleaned up. I'm not sure how you can create a market for trash (thus saving the producer money, or paying them money for the trash) without increasing their trash output, which is the exact opposite effect you are trying to produce. There is no financial incentive for someone else to pick up your trash from the river. In fact, there is a financial dis-incentive to be environmentally friendly / a good Samaritan.

There are always people who throw away perfectly serviceable items to replace them with the latest, trendiest, or most fashionable current item. That seems both silly and irresponsible to me. But I am a software engineer by trade and therefore think logically, and tend not to be influenced by ads (well, a good sale at EMS usually gets at least a look) or fashion or marketing in general. Maybe I'm just sensitive to this subject given the holiday gift-giving season is upon us

Tim

 

[Pete_Hickey]

We will see large scale changes when being green saves people green.

My commuting costs are about $100/per year. That includes the cost of bike parts, as well as the bike over several years. It does not include the increase in food I eat, as a result of burning more calories. (Gasoline provides much more energy per dollar than does rice). Others pay whatever in gas, increased insurance (I get a reduced rate because I don't drive to work), and something like $1,000/year parking! It is WAY cheaper.

How quickly would there be less garbage if it cost money, by the pound, to have it hauled away from your house?
(Or would people throw their trash all over the place, like into the river, to save the money?)

Reminds me of the Great garbage strike in NYC back in the late 60's. People would gift wrap their garbage, and leave it in an unlocked car. Someone would steal it.

I find it interesting, that as time goes on, one would tend to think that we would become more aware of things, however, excessive waste/packaging is growing. Convenience. Look at all the micro-wavable stuff. Compare the packaging in microwave popcorn to the old style stuff. BTW, I don't have a microwave. I seem to remember someone being 'amused' at me not knowing how to use a microwave while staying at The Hostel in the Adirondacks.

 

[forestgnome]

w7xman makes a great point about plain ole pollution. You can't make cinematic disaster films about it, with towering tidal waves and monster typhoons, or whatever is in those silly crockumentaries. But it is real, you can see it, and it is harmful. My understanding is that pollution levels in America are decreasing due to emmission standards and clean-air technologies, while places like China and India and Asia are getting worse.

Everyone seems to focus on gas mileage as the answer. I believe that a second home is a greater culprit than driving a car with less gas mileage. How much energy is burned in a year to heat an empty home? I'd like to hear more about this from our knowledgable members.

 

[bikehikeskifish]

On bicycle commuting -- I firmly believe that a lot of the daily problems we face (road rage, commuting issues, gas bills, pollution, obesity, health care costs, ...) could be resolved if more people rode their bicycles to work. I did 2-3 days per week (55 miles RT) until my employer moved another 8 miles away, and 70+ miles just takes too much time. I do drive part-way and ride part way, but it's not the same.

The number one thing I would like to change in my life is to work closer to home... unfortunately, most of the high-tech software jobs (that pay enough) are in MA (495 and south) and not in NH... There is simply nothing attractive or positive about 35 minutes (minimum, no traffic) each way in the car. I am working on my employer to allow me (and others) to telecommute 1 or 2 days per week. If you can do that, you save on gas, wear and tear on your vehicle, pollution, sanity, .........

Tim

 

[Artex]

A somewhat sick part of me is hoping for this scenario to take place instead.

 

[Neil]

Everyone seems to focus on gas mileage as the answer. I believe that a second home is a greater culprit than driving a car with less gas mileage. How much energy is burned in a year to heat an empty home? I'd like to hear more about this from our knowledgable members.

Vehicle emissions are easy to target. How about only eating food that was grown within a 30 miles radius of your home to decrease emmissions, or only buying stuff that was manufactured close to where you live. I bet most of my hiking gear was made in Asia then shipped to North America.

I am already on my 4th digital camera. My Dad's 35 mm camera probably lasted him 30 years. I think we will consume "stuff" as long as we can afford it and "stuff" seems to be getting cheaper by the minute.

Wait til they can "grow" cars, one atom at a time for 50 bucks and run 'em off the sun. .

 

[Pete_Hickey]

On bicycle commuting .......
The number one thing I would like to change in my life is to work closer to home...

When it was time for me to purchase a house, one of the main criteria was that it be close enough that I could cycle-commute. That was 22 years ago, and I don't regret my decision.

Choice of where to live is important. For example, those living in Manhattan are some of the most energy efficient people in North America. Most do not own cars, heating of high rises is very efficient, etc.

 

[peakn]

Everyone seems to focus on gas mileage as the answer. I believe that a second home is a greater culprit than driving a car with less gas mileage.

...........

 

[bikehikeskifish]

When it was time for me to purchase a house, one of the main criteria was that it be close enough that I could cycle-commute. That was 22 years ago, and I don't regret my decision.

Choice of where to live is important. For example, those living in Manhattan are some of the most energy efficient people in North America. Most do not own cars, heating of high rises is very efficient, etc.

I bought my home near my job. Then the .com bubble burst and I was forced to take a job further away. And then they moved further away... I love my house and I'm not willing to move just yet. I don't think I could afford to move, actually. The "NH Advantage" doesn't seem to apply to high-tech jobs, unfortunately. Unless, perhaps, you are at the sea coast, which is almost twice as far away as the 495/93 beltway. If it's any consolation, I insist on a shower as a condition of employment so I can ride to work.

What really roasts me now is how hard it is to find people willing to carpool. Two guys who work in our sister company next door live in the same town as me and have no interest in carpooling (beyond "Well, if your car is in the shop, I'll give you a ride".)

I always think (and this is surely a wildly unpopular idea) that population control would go a long way towards solving our problems. Maybe we can apply Neil's green-for-green theory and pay people to stop making babies (no more tax deductions for kids.) One could argue that humanity is a plague upon the earth. Perhaps we'll be our own natural predator.

And, BTW, I can think of no place less desirable to live (in the USA) than Manhattan.

I do own a 3000 square foot home. That's what builders build, and what is readily available. Me, personally, I'd love to live in a smaller condo. Costs less, less maintenance, more time for biking, hiking, skiing, fishing. If I were single and 100% in control of my money, I would do it. Meanwhile, we've replaced every practical light bulb in the house with fluorescents, we close the extra rooms up for the winter and turn the heat way down, and keep the rest of the house at 62-65 degrees. We pre-buy 550 gals of oil every year and that works out +/- 50 gals. That's pretty low compared to some neighbors and friends.

Green is green will work well when gas is $5-6 per gallon and heating oil is $4-5 per gallon. Then there will be incentives to change our behavior. Locally produced products will be cheaper (no fuel charges), etc.

Yes, I know I am preaching to the choir here. I'm done.

Tim