peakbagger
In Rembrance , July 2024
I agree NP played this one well. Somewhat like the previous failed Ride the Wilds deal, they didn't care on the damage that would occur to their partner. Unfortunately it doesn't play as well for the Balsams. Large developments like this live or die on how they are perceived by the finance community. The goal is to establish a "feeding frenzy" where less sophisticated investors feel that they have to get in at the bottom floor or they will miss out. Les Otten is a pro at spin and contrary to his stated love of the north country commutes up from his place in the Locke Mills area. This is a retirement project for a bored developer. Dan Dagesse (the person who did the one page ad) is not as skilled (but his background in auto sales implies he also should have some spin skill). His commentary hinted of panic. By indirectly linking the future of the Balsams with NP, other potential investors may shy away as there is now a big "if" associated with the project. As before it was full speed ahead open winter 2016, now its "if NP get approved and continues funding the project" then its full speed ahead. A big IF like that really can dampen down the feeding frenzy. Allowing the schedule to slip to a 2017 start will most likely doom it.
The stated kickoff date for the project has already slipped from "working through the winter (2015 to 2016)" to spring 2016 to now "summer of 2016". The state SEC committee hearing process for NP with 161 interveners is going to be by far the most complex case ever held by the SEC and despite NP optimistically forecasting/demanding a permit by the end of 2016, other individuals are pretty sure at best the process could be done by Mid 2017 with SPNHF shooting for late 2017. This case is not a class action, there are now effectively 160 plus parties all with their own agendas that have the individual right to bring NP reps to the stand and grill them. One or two mistakes in the process and it can reopen the entire case for appeal. Any investor in the initial phase of the Balsams will decidedly be reticent to invest until the NP permitting process is settled as even the developer admits that to get to critical mass to draw in the target users, the project needs to be built out far in excess of the initial phase. Hard to sell Century Club Memberships when there is no assurance when the owner can get his 100 days.
There already is already some local pushback on the Balsams at local hearings on some subsidiary deals that the state made to support the project. The state had agreed to rebuild several local roads and hand them over to the resort and locals are questioning that if the state can come up with cash to rebuild roads for the developer at no charge why cant they fix many other roads in far worse condition that the public can use? If the anti NP folks come out against this, politically it becomes a tar baby for the local elected officials (although Eversource has been pretty effective at buying them off).
The stated kickoff date for the project has already slipped from "working through the winter (2015 to 2016)" to spring 2016 to now "summer of 2016". The state SEC committee hearing process for NP with 161 interveners is going to be by far the most complex case ever held by the SEC and despite NP optimistically forecasting/demanding a permit by the end of 2016, other individuals are pretty sure at best the process could be done by Mid 2017 with SPNHF shooting for late 2017. This case is not a class action, there are now effectively 160 plus parties all with their own agendas that have the individual right to bring NP reps to the stand and grill them. One or two mistakes in the process and it can reopen the entire case for appeal. Any investor in the initial phase of the Balsams will decidedly be reticent to invest until the NP permitting process is settled as even the developer admits that to get to critical mass to draw in the target users, the project needs to be built out far in excess of the initial phase. Hard to sell Century Club Memberships when there is no assurance when the owner can get his 100 days.
There already is already some local pushback on the Balsams at local hearings on some subsidiary deals that the state made to support the project. The state had agreed to rebuild several local roads and hand them over to the resort and locals are questioning that if the state can come up with cash to rebuild roads for the developer at no charge why cant they fix many other roads in far worse condition that the public can use? If the anti NP folks come out against this, politically it becomes a tar baby for the local elected officials (although Eversource has been pretty effective at buying them off).
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