Hiker Rescue yesterday on Washington (Mt Clay)

[sierra]

Or...they believe that they can soldier on thru the conditions due to their (fill in the blank)

In some cases you are exactly right, remember that Derek Tinkham Kid. In this case though, I tend to doubt it. From the background on this guy that I read, he sounds pretty straight forward and a family man at that. He was over taken by the weather and I bet it was a complete surprise. What bugs me, is that a fit individual should be able to find a bail out route and get out of the weather, I've done it more then once. You get halfway down a ravine and its much better conditions, then you have a long walk and maybe a hitchhike back to your car. I'd bet a million bucks, if you showed that dude a crystal ball with the impending weather, his butt would have been heading down in a minute. This is the quandary that repeats itself up here over and over and I have given it plenty of thought. Just how can you convey the dangers to the average tourist hiker? I just don't know the answer. I wish I did though, it's really a shame, this guy had people that loved him.

 

[jfb]

I'd bet a million bucks, if you showed that dude a crystal ball with the impending weather, his butt would have been heading down in a minute. T

For people who have never been in bad weather, the forecast is just a bunch of numbers.

 

[JoshandBaron]

More info https://www.boston.com/news/local-n...e-mountains-an-andover-hiker-texted-his-wife/

 

[ChrisB]

For people who have never been in bad weather, the forecast is just a bunch of numbers.

I think we need to keep in mind the insidious and debilitating nature of hypothermia, especially as it applies to decision making. No one can know when he started feeling its effects: Mad Hut, T-storm Junction, Jefferson? Slowly but surely his decision making ability was compromised. Plus he was in a spot where there is no convenient and friendly escape route.

Had he been with a companion they might have noticed him shivering, stumbling, acting a bit off, and called him on his urge to press on.

As with Kate, the gradual and unnoticed loss of quality thinking is likely the cause of death here.

 

[bikehikeskifish]

My rule of thumb is "any time the wind speed is greater than the temperature one should start to question one's plans and abilities".

Tim

 

[sierra]

I think we need to keep in mind the insidious and debilitating nature of hypothermia, especially as it applies to decision making. No one can know when he started feeling its effects: Mad Hut, T-storm Junction, Jefferson? Slowly but surely his decision making ability was compromised. Plus he was in a spot where there is no convenient and friendly escape route.

Had he been with a companion they might have noticed him shivering, stumbling, acting a bit off, and called him on his urge to press on.

As with Kate, the gradual and unnoticed loss of quality thinking is likely the cause of death here.

That is a very valid point. I was with some one once that became hypothermic. I was leading a hike up the desolation trail in horrible spring conditions, we were breaking trail in heavy wet snow, the tree's were dumping snow on us and between sweating and the snow we were soaked. The guy behind me was saying something to me and I turned and said what? it was like he was **** faced. I went down to him and his lips were purple and he was shivering like crazy. I said "oh **** dude", "we got to get you down". AS soon as I said that , he turned and bolted, I ran after him and caught him, I walked him down to the former Desolation shelter. Shoved him in a bag and started the stove. Took about an hour to bring him back to normal. We bagged the trip and walked out Lincoln woods, I remember it was like 70 and sunny down on the RR grade, the difference in elevation conditions is always amazing to me. We had a great walk out and talked about the incident, an incredible learning moment for me and I never forgot it.

 

[peakbagger]

This is the probably the best article I have seen of last weekends rescues https://www.conwaydailysun.com/berl...cle_95b6256e-f0c3-11ec-ba3d-33d1f7b77a2a.html

A friend and I had one of those moments in high school on Carrigan (up Desolation and down Signal Ridge with backpacks on in heavy rain and lightning). I became a fair weather day hiker when I could after that. I missed a few hikes where the weather was not as bad as the forecast predicted but with modern forecasting its pretty rare. I have been up on the whites since 1987 and with the exception of the Old Man falling down all the summits are still there in substantially the same condition.

It is actually surprising that the hiker could even text, that usually is a skill that would go away as the stages of hyp0thermia kick in. Given the timing for what it takes to mobilize the rescue, he probably hunkered down thinking someone would be there in 5 minutes while the reality was several hours from the first text. The obs crew used to be first responders who frequently could get there quicker for many rescues but the staff composition and management has changed. With a young staff, they just do not have the training and equipment to preform rescues and in high winds conditions they could just as quickly become additional victims.

 

[Tom Rankin]

My rule of thumb is "any time the wind speed is greater than the temperature one should start to question one's plans and abilities".

Tim

So, never hike below 0? ;-)

 

[egilbe]

So, never hike below 0? ;-)

That's not a horrible idea

The 4000 foot facebook groups was filled with people asking about their Presi traverse planned for that weekend. They were encouraged to find another weekend to do it. This was not the weekend to be above treeline. Like Kate's storm, this one was forecast a few days out.

Tragic

 

[jfb]

No one can know when he started feeling its effects: Mad Hut, T-storm Junction, Jefferson?

I'll assume that he would start to feel the effects of hypothermia on the descent into Edmands Col, but would warm again on the ascent of Jefferson. From there, it's pretty flat so he wouldn't be generating much heat. If his inner layers were damp and he didn't have enough warm clothes, the low temps combined with the wind would be deadly. If he had been familiar with hiking in those conditions, he could have headed down the Randolph Path from Edmands Col.

 

[B the Hiker]

So, never hike below 0? ;-)

I agree with "egilbe," hiking below 0 is mighty challenging in its own right. Above treeline and in a wind? I would take a pass.

 

[peakbagger]

There is reportedly an interview with his son with background in the Boston Globe behind a paywall.

With respect to cold weather hiking, wind and cold can be managed with the right gear but add in effectively hiking in a hurricane with driving rain/sleet and the equipment required gets a lot rarer. I think the approach is go with totally waterproof gear with a VBL base.

 

[DayTrip]

There is reportedly an interview with his son with background in the Boston Globe behind a paywall.

With respect to cold weather hiking, wind and cold can be managed with the right gear but add in effectively hiking in a hurricane with driving rain/sleet and the equipment required gets a lot rarer. I think the approach is go with totally waterproof gear with a VBL base.

Definitely can be managed...if you plan for it. I've got some grief here from time to time for taking hikes in horrendous weather on purpose (which I actually do enjoy) and this is exactly why I do it - to know what gear I should have, if it actually does what I think it will, if I really have the skills for it, things that pop up that I hadn't foreseen, etc. These are profound learning experiences so if you ever find yourself "in that scenario" you know what is and isn't possible.

As many have mentioned, the vast majority of hikers out there do not have any experience to draw on for scenarios like this and combined with a sense of overconfidence get into trouble. As Sierra mentioned I have no idea how you fix this other than implementing expensive and draconian measures that I don't think anyone would really want. It just seems to happen over and over and over with no sign of improving....

 

[TEO]

My rule of thumb is "any time the wind speed is greater than the temperature one should start to question one's plans and abilities".

So, never hike below 0? ;-)

My friends an I have routinely backcountry skied in temperatures below zero. The coldest recorded temperatures for our backcountry night-skiing group was -28º F at the base of a line—there happened to be a remote UVM weather station right near the end of the run. The advantage of being on skis is you can move more quickly than hiking, but it also increases the risk. Obviously your margin for error is slim in those temperatures. I did bail early on one occasion, due to an equipment issue. I probably could have diagnosed the cause and certainly made the correcting adjustment in the field, but since it was in the -20ºs, I did not want to take any chance of an equipment failure high on the mountain.

Most of my outings in the super-cold temperatures have been relatively close to civilization, but for the Adirondacks, where trip distances are often longer, your winter days are going to be rather limited if zero is your cutoff. That said, I won't say that you're wrong, Tim, to have a cutoff like that

There is reportedly an interview with his son with background in the Boston Globe behind a paywall.

Here's that Globe article. If the paywall is preventing you from reading it, you might: (a) buy a subscription, (b) try using "reader" view in your browser, or (c) open it in the Tor browser.

With respect to cold weather hiking, wind and cold can be managed with the right gear but add in effectively hiking in a hurricane with driving rain/sleet and the equipment required gets a lot rarer. I think the approach is go with totally waterproof gear with a VBL base.

I agree with this.

On Saturday and Sunday I was hiking in Dixs Grant and Dixville. With a forecast of highs in the mid-high-40ºs and rain, I was cognizant of the increased hypothermia risk, so I brought extra layers, changed shirts between hikes, and for my second hike on Saturday, carried a thermos of hot tea with a liberal helping of Vermont Maple Syrup, which I typically only carry in cooler months. But, 3k'ers are not the same as above treeline in the Presidentials.

Like many, I am curious to what Mr. Chen had for clothing and if he was aware of the forecast. It would appear that he had at least a moderate amount of hiking experience and was determined in his efforts. My heart aches for his family.

 

[sierra]

One thing that I think is over looked and I know some here will even dispute it (they will not be named by me) some people don't get as cold as other's do. I rarely feel really cold and I do not carry the gear many do, I even got crap on this site once, for not having a pad, a sleeping bag and I believe a stove for winter day hikes. I have spent many days above treeline in sub zero temps on solo trips. I once left Harvard cabin in temps that read -25 without the wind. I say this because for years, I have run into people dressed to the nines on summits and I'm barely adding a layer. I do not know the reason for this, maybe its the amount of time I have spent in such conditions.

 

[bikehikeskifish]

So, never hike below 0? ;-)

Well, below 0 you have to hike backwards

My rule of thumb is "any time the wind speed is greater than the temperature one should start to question one's plans and abilities".

Note that I said "one should start to question one's plans and abilities"... It's just a guide. It's worked pretty well for me, and very well for Gryffin. Everyone has their +/- (wind + 10 > temp) just like they have their book time multiplier. For sure I think about Gryffin's safety and comfort too.

I'd prefer 0 degrees with 20 mph wind over 40 degrees and 40 mph wind with rain, for example. And 60 degrees + 60 mph wind is probably a no-go for me as well.

Tim

 

[DayTrip]

I'd prefer 0 degrees with 20 mph wind over 40 degrees and 40 mph wind with rain, for example. And 60 degrees + 60 mph wind is probably a no-go for me as well.

Tim

I'm in that "zone" as well. It's hard to have rigid go/no-go rule on any one parameter. I usually evaluate temperature, visibility and fall potential as my 3 criteria. Any one of these alone may not be a deal breaker but when things start getting sketchy for several or all of them I adjust plans accordingly...which generally involves an Imperial Stout and the TV.

 

[NorthShore]

Would anyone have saved the printed "High Summits" forecast issued by the MWO twice a day for either last Friday or Saturday? I would like to see how Saturday's bad conditions, notably the high winds that developed (96 mph gust by Sunday), were forecast. These HS forecasts are as we all know super well done; sure wish Mr. Chen had checked them out.

MEZ007>009-NHZ002>004-172100-
Summits Above 4000 Feet in Northern New Hampshire and Western Maine-
656 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...Recreation forecast for summits above 4000 feet in northern New
Hampshire and western Maine...

.TODAY...Summits obscured. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms may be severe with large hail. Highs in the mid
60s...except in the upper 50s at elevations above 5000 feet. West
winds 25 to 35 mph...except west 45 to 55 mph at elevations above
5000 feet. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.TONIGHT...Summits obscured. A chance of rain showers. Lows in the
mid 30s. Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph...except northwest 40 to
50 mph at elevations above 5000 feet. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Wind chill values as low as 15 after midnight.
.SATURDAY...Summits obscured. A chance of rain showers or snow
showers. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 40 to 50 mph. At
elevations above 5000 feet, northwest winds around 60 mph increasing
to around 70 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation
50 percent. Wind chill values as low as 9 above.

MEZ007>009-NHZ002>004-181015-
Summits Above 4000 Feet in Northern New Hampshire and Western Maine-
801 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...Recreation forecast for summits above 4000 feet in northern New
Hampshire and western Maine...

.TONIGHT...Summits obscured. Scattered rain showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 25 to
35 mph...except northwest 40 to 50 mph at elevations above
5000 feet. Chance of rain 50 percent. Wind chill values as low as
19 after midnight.
.SATURDAY...Summits obscured. Scattered rain showers in the morning.
A chance of snow showers. Numerous rain showers in the afternoon.
Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds around 45 mph increasing to
around 55 mph in the afternoon. At elevations above 5000 feet,
northwest winds around 60 mph increasing to around 70 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Wind chill values as
low as 9 above.

Summits Above 4000 Feet in Northern New Hampshire and Western Maine-
637 AM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022

...Recreation forecast for summits above 4000 feet in northern New
Hampshire and western Maine...

.TODAY...Summits obscured. A chance of rain showers and snow showers
this morning, then rain showers and snow showers likely this
afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 40 to 50 mph...
except northwest 45 to 65 mph at elevations above 5000 feet. Chance
of precipitation 70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 6 above
this morning.
.TONIGHT...Summits obscured. Rain showers likely in the evening. A
chance of snow showers. A chance of rain showers after midnight.
Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 35 to 45 mph...except
northwest 45 to 60 mph at elevations above 5000 feet. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 9 above.
.JUNETEENTH...Summits obscured. A chance of rain showers and snow
showers. Highs in the lower 40s...except in the mid 30s at
elevations above 5000 feet. Northwest winds 30 to 40 mph...except
northwest 50 to 60 mph at elevations above 5000 feet. Gusts up to
75 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Wind
chill values as low as 8 above.

Summits Above 4000 Feet in Northern New Hampshire and Western Maine-
209 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022

...Recreation forecast for summits above 4000 feet in northern New
Hampshire and western Maine...

.REST OF TODAY...Summits obscured. Rain showers and snow showers
likely. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds around 55 mph...
except northwest around 75 mph at elevations above 5000 feet. Chance
of precipitation 70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 14.
.TONIGHT...Summits obscured. Rain showers and snow showers likely in
the evening, then a chance of rain showers and snow showers after
midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 50 to 60 mph...
except northwest 55 to 70 mph at elevations above 5000 feet. Chance
of precipitation 70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 9 above.
.JUNETEENTH...Summits obscured. A chance of rain showers and snow
showers. Highs in the lower 40s...except in the mid 30s at
elevations above 5000 feet. Northwest winds around 55 mph decreasing
to around 40 mph in the afternoon. At elevations above 5000 feet,
northwest winds 55 to 65 mph. Gusts up to 85 mph decreasing to
75 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Wind
chill values as low as 8 above.

Summits Above 4000 Feet in Northern New Hampshire and Western Maine-
743 PM EDT Sat Jun 18 2022

...Recreation forecast for summits above 4000 feet in northern New
Hampshire and western Maine...

.TONIGHT...Summits obscured. Rain showers likely with a chance of
snow showers this evening, then a slight chance of rain showers and
snow showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds
35 to 45 mph...except north 45 to 60 mph at elevations above
5000 feet. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Wind chill values as
low as 9 above.
.JUNETEENTH...Summits obscured. A chance of rain showers and snow
showers in the morning, then rain showers and snow showers likely in
the afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s...except in the mid 30s at
elevations above 5000 feet. North winds 35 to 45 mph...except north
45 to 60 mph at elevations above 5000 feet. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 7 above.

 

[Mac]

One can dress for cold and windy weather. If rain or wet snow is added to the mix, it's a whole different ballgame. I once hiked from Madison to Lakes (early August), temps were in low 50s with 50-60 mph winds and horizontal rain. My hiking buddy observed some shivering, and slight impairment in my decision making, so we diverted to summit (pack room), and recovered there. We were a considerable distance past Jewell bailout when issues surfaced, so summit building was the next available option.

 

[Grey J]

I was on Jefferson in August of 1986, having summited earlier in the day and camping at The Perch when a freak storm blew up. Expecting summer conditions, and not totally prepared, we were just warm enough to get through the night. We were supposed to do Adams and Madison the next day but instead hiked out in a cold and miserable rain. As we were bailing out, apparently the ill-fated MacDonald Barr party was at the same time ascending into a sleet storm on Madison where Mr. Barr unfortunately perished. See Not Without Peril for a detailed account.