Lafayette & Lincoln, 3/1/2014

[BIGEarl]

Date: March 1, 2014

Franconia Ridge Loop – Lafayette and Lincoln

On Saturday, (3/1/2014), I am planning to hike the Franconia Ridge loop, Lafayette and Lincoln via Old Bridle Path and Falling Waters. Anybody want to join the fun?

I hike a moderate pace, which is around book time or a little more.

If you’re interested in joining the hike or have any questions, please respond here or message me.

 

[1SlowHiker]

I am thinking about hiking Saturday and may consider Lafeyette & Lincoln if the forcast holds (teens, wind < 25 , snow after 4pm). I am too slow to hike with you but we could break trail for each other if we go opposite ways. Are you planning CW or CCW? Or I could start breaking until you overcome me because i have to start very early (4-5 am) I am thinking of going CCW so wind (predicted SW) will behind me on the ridge.

 

[BIGEarl]

Our hike direction depends mainly on the weather conditions on Saturday morning. Based on the forecast, it looks like CCW makes the most sense.

Since this is the end of a vacation week, I doubt there will be a great amount of trail breaking needed.

We'll see.

 

[Mike Z]

I won't make it this weekend but am considering Garfield Wednesday or Thursday this week.
I am kinda new here and see your posts all the time. I like hiking during the week, so if you ever need someone to keep you company, give me a shout.
Mike Z

 

[1SlowHiker]

Looks like i have to pass on this. weather isnt what i'd like. Thinking of doing Cabot instead and saving the F ridge for a day with less wind&snow. Enjoy.

 

[BIGEarl]

That's interesting.

I rely on the various forecasts from the National Weather Service and a couple other commercial sites. It isn't unusual for me to spend in excess of twenty hours researching the expected weather for most of my hikes. For hikes that have significant exposure, such as Franconia Ridge, the number usually goes up to approaching ~forty hours.

The forecast information I have seen this morning for tomorrow shows:

• A lower probability of precipitation (down by 10%)
• Less wind (down by ~10 mph)
• Higher cloud cover for the day (above 8000 feet all day)
• And better expected visibility
• Even the words "Partly Sunny" are in the forecast

It looks like a good day to me.



Good luck on Cabot; it's on my list of good bad-weather targets. If there's a weather concern, Cabot is a good, sheltered hike to take on.

Enjoy your day.

 

[1SlowHiker]

That's interesting.



The forecast information I have seen this morning for tomorrow shows:

• A lower probability of precipitation (down by 10%)
• Less wind (down by ~10 mph)
• Higher cloud cover for the day (above 8000 feet all day)
• And better expected visibility
• Even the words "Partly Sunny" are in the forecast

It looks like a good day to me.



Enjoy your day.

Your tempting me! But for other reasons i have to wait until Sunday now. Pus, I havent hiked for a month and am just getting over a cold so sanity crept in and I'm going less ambitious. BTW I was using ; http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.15856343854312&lon=-71.64459228515625 which is normally good but then again last month I did the Tripyramids because they predicted high winds and there was zero wind. Driving up from RI I tend do stay on the more cautious side.

 

[DayTrip]

That's interesting.

I rely on the various forecasts from the National Weather Service and a couple other commercial sites. It isn't unusual for me to spend in excess of twenty hours researching the expected weather for most of my hikes. For hikes that have significant exposure, such as Franconia Ridge, the number usually goes up to approaching ~forty hours.

The forecast information I have seen this morning for tomorrow shows:

• A lower probability of precipitation (down by 10%)
• Less wind (down by ~10 mph)
• Higher cloud cover for the day (above 8000 feet all day)
• And better expected visibility
• Even the words "Partly Sunny" are in the forecast

It looks like a good day to me.



Good luck on Cabot; it's on my list of good bad-weather targets. If there's a weather concern, Cabot is a good, sheltered hike to take on.

Enjoy your day.

I am a similarly neurotic planner of my hikes (not quite as bad as you but certainly an honorable mention), partially because I hike solo and partially because I just enjoy the research time getting psyched for the upcoming hike. I'd be curious to know what sites you are utilizing for your forecasting and anything else you take into account.

 

[BIGEarl]

I am a similarly neurotic planner of my hikes (not quite as bad as you but certainly an honorable mention), partially because I hike solo and partially because I just enjoy the research time getting psyched for the upcoming hike. I'd be curious to know what sites you are utilizing for your forecasting and anything else you take into account.

First, I need to ask a question….

You have diagnosed me as neurotic. Are you actually a psychiatrist or just a pretend shrink?




Different people use different resources. Search for past threads on weather sites and you’ll find many other choices. You’ll also find a number of threads where I have posted most of the following.

There are several on-line resources I use for weather information to help in hike planning. Here are my primary planning sites:

NOAA – National Weather Service:

Point Forecasts: http://www.weather.gov/

Upper Elevation Winds: http://aviationweather.gov/adds/winds/

MOS Forecasts: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/

Higher Summits Forecast: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=REC&node=KGYX


Commercial Sites:

The Weather Channel: http://www.weather.com/

Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/


Additional Sites:

Local airports: Whitefield, Berlin Municipal, Plymouth (all are NWS stations – KHIE, KBML, and K1P1 respectively)

Ski Areas: Bretton Woods, Cannon, Loon, Wildcat, Attitash (can be helpful in winter but they’re also selling lift tickets)

I hope this information is helpful.

 

[DayTrip]

First, I need to ask a question….

You have diagnosed me as neurotic. Are you actually a psychiatrist or just a pretend shrink?

Neither! And as it relates to hiking it was meant as the highest of compliments. Thanks for those links. There are a couple on there of interest. You may find these of interest as well:

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/NH/nwis/current/?type=flow - Helps with gauging river crossing levels on trails. I check before every hike so I get an idea of what level equates to tough crossings (i.e. if the East Branch Pemi is flowing above x cfs than I know the river crossings on the Lincoln Brook Trail will be an issue).

http://water.weather.gov/precip/?yesterday=1 - Can drill in by state and time period. Use to get an idea of how wet it is on trails, particularly when I'm doing trails with ledges (i.e. Huntington Ravine, North Slide, etc).

http://www.mountain-forecast.com/ - Can drill down to specific mountain ranges and peaks for detailed forecasts. Wind speed forecasts tend to be exaggerated (As I have followed this over time I'm starting to think the winds are peak gusts not average speeds). Another nice feature is they have maps for winds and various other weather items that you can forward frame by frame for different time periods to see how the weather will develop. I use this in conjunction with the hourly forecasts on Intellicast and their interactive Web Map (http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx) to gauge how nice of a day it will be. It is surprisingly accurate.

It's funny you brought up the municipal airport forecasts. I was following those and somewhere along the way had forgotten all about it! Good reminder.