Strange Pattern to This Winter's Fatalities in the Whites

[SherpaKroto]

BrianW: MY group rule when I started winter hiking was this: always 4 or more, with me the least experienced. That's just MY personal rule. Nothing formal.

 

[Mark]

Some cliarifications

First, I did not delete my original post. It's still there on page 1. The only posts I deleted were responses to other deleted posts which no longer made any sense.

Second, I don't have any problem per se with speed hiking. My original post dealt with preparedness, not how fast one hikes. Speed hiking does not necessarily mean one is not well prepared.

 

[Peter Miller]

Re: Statistical Blip and Other Perspectives

I can't accept the statistical blip concept. I have been following the hiking scene since moving to the southern fringe of the Whites in '73. I can't recall a single winter that compares with this one in terms of number of deaths, their locations in the Whites, and the experience level of the hikers. Reference to "Not Without Peril" is meaningful. '94 and '96 were high fatality winters on the Rockpile. But most of those who died were far less experienced than Ken Holmes, Jaytrek, or Ms. Cox. Case in point, Monroe Couper and Erik Lattey, New Jerseyites and novices to the Whites, who died of hypothermia climbing in Pinnacle Gully in '94.

More winter hikers, trails packed down more, technological advances (GPS, cell phones, gear) - All of these seem relevant but not sufficient to explain this winter's pattern. If these were the most important factors, I would expect novices to die much more frequently than seasoned, experienced hikers.

This winter's sustained winds - The high pressure system that stalled over Labrador did produce high wind for an unusual succession of days this January, beginning before Ken Holmes' death and more or less continuing beyond Jaytrek's demise. I don't recall many days when high pressure systems parked over the Whites, which usually produces the safest hiking weather. This winter necessitated more patience than usual. Unfortunately, some chose not to wait out the wind.

Winter lists, bulletin boards, changing motivational patterns among hikers - These are some of the things research could shed more light on.

 

[JohnL]

Peter,

I’m not sure that I see any pattern at all with this year’s deaths. Let’s look at each one individually:
1) Solo hiker who fell somewhere in the Huntington Ravine area.
2) Solo hiker succumbed to elements near summit of South Twin.
3) Hiker falls to death in a steep icy ravine while trying to rescue another of his group.
4) Hiker dies while trapped by weather on top of Mt Lafayette.

#1 is a simple accident, #2 is either a person who was overextended or a victim of a freak weather anomaly, #3 is a result of an accident while trying to rescue an injury victim, and #4 is as a result of a normal winter weather occurrence in the White Mts. Where is there any pattern?

I don’t see anyone who ventured to any specific area and seemed to rely on technology (GPS, phone, etc) to bail them out. Except for Ken Holmes, I don’t see anyone succumbing to unusual winter weather. Brenda Cox died on a well traveled trail.

What pattern are you seeing that I don’t?

I don’t think you can say one way or the other whether this year’s fatalities are a statistical blip. You won’t know that until you see the next set of data points. This year’s blip could be next year’s beginning of a new trend.

JohnL

 

[Peter Miller]

Reply to John L.

John,

Here are a few of the things that stand out for me.

Those who have died in the Whites this year come from a different population than those who typically have died. At least 3 of the 4 were elite athletes. All were accomplished hikers at least moderately familiar with the Whites. None were strangers to winter conditions.

The list of those who died in the past, or who would have died had they not been rescued, is dominated by the less fit, the less experienced, the less knowledgeable. In many cases, their unpreparedness was ludicrous. The prime example, in my mind, is that of the Maine physician who was rescued off the Rockpile some years back. Longtime respondents to these boards will surely recall his case. He was either one of the first to be charged for rescue or was the case the triggered fee for rescues. What astonished many of us was that the man seemed as arrogant after rescue as he had been before.

Another thing that stands out for me is that, excluding the skier's death, weather forecasts were ignored or not attended to by the hikers who have died so far this year. In Ken Holmes' case, his companion showed him a print out of the impending weather, and Ken went up Bondcliff nonetheless. The exceptionally dire wind-chills that killed Ken had been forecasted all across NH at least two days in advance of his outing. With Jaytrek, again it was known in advance that conditions above treeline were going to be brutal. Jaytrek hadn't originally planned to be on the Rockpile that day in the first place. I suppose we'll never know what led him there or what his itinerary was. I suspect hypothermia was a factor in his death, that his attempt to get out of the wind led to his fall. With the Coxes, the forecast was for deteriorating conditions this past Sunday. At this time of year, that generally means only one thing in the Whites.

I imagine Jaytrek knew of Ken Holmes' death. I imagine the Coxes knew of both Holmes' and Jaytrek's. What more dire warnings can there be?

The combination of hiking expertise and disregard for forecasts has me wondering about the motivational wellsprings of these hikers. When emotions have settled and grief mostly subsided, I hope someone will interview people who knew these hikers well to try to discover common threads that may have led to their deaths. I would prefer not to speculate about what they might be.

My heart goes out to Mr. Cox. It's hard to picture a more brutal sequence of events. When he is ready to, I hope he will share his story with us. We will be the wiser for it.

 

[RoySwkr]

Regarding the most recent tragedy, with the couple on Lafayette, it sounds as though there may have been a micro-climate situation there. A poster above mentions that he was on Flume at the time, and able to see the snow plume on Lafayette — a clear view where he was, a whiteout just a short distance away.

Remember a few years ago, the couple that spent a night (it was the day after Thanksgiving, about 1998) in a snow cave on Lafayette after getting caught in a sudden snowsquall? My son and I (and dozens of other hikers) were on Welch and Dickey that day. It did not snow at all on Welch-Dickey. Again, a different condition just a short distance away.

I am surprised that nobody else has commented on this, so I will. It is not in the least unusual for the "microclimate" to be far different (and usually worse) on the higher summits such as Lafayette and the Presidentials.

Did I read something about a new selectman in Meredith?

 

[Jack Waldron]

SAR Article

This is a story from the Littleton Courier about SAR and some of the folks involved in it. There are some interesting facts and observations.

Rescuers Urge Sense of Hazard

 

[Peter Miller]

SAR Article

Thanks for posting this, Jack.

 

[hikeritz]

To use a phrase from radio, I'm a long-time listener and first-time caller. Credit goes to this thread for spurring me to finally register. I'll offer a few thoughts.

First, my agreement with those who stress the old Be Prepared motto. Much of what I carry on any trip is there just in case. On a warm, sunny dayhike up Mt. Greylock last week I carried an overly heavy first aid/survival kit, a bivy sack, headlamp, wool hat and some other stuff. Didn't use any of it, but that's okay. Every so often I think I'll leave the survival kit behind: it's bulky and heavy and all I've ever used from it has been a few bandaids and some paracord. But I envision an accident report stating, "He usually carries an emergency kit but left it at home this time," and the kit goes into the pack. My mantra: You never know.

Here's another angle on this thread. All those who died were from out of state. Getting to the White Mountains required a certain amount of effort in planning, scheduling and even driving a few hours to get to the trailhead. With that kind of personal investment, there's a tendency to feel a bit of an obligation to push on a bit further. Perhaps that wasn't a factor for the four individuals we're considering. All seemed to be frequent, active hikers and maybe getting out wasn't such a big deal. For me, family & job obligations make getting time to go hiking a major undertaking. And that's just the solo hikes. Trips with my far-flung group of hiking buddies - each with their own set of obligations - are rare and precious. By the time I'm setting foot on a trail I've got a fair amount of motivation to do something with the time I've carved out. It gets worse if I've mentioned my plans to coworkers and other non-hikers. "You're going winter camping! Wow!" That said, I have no problem at all with changing my plans on the fly if something comes up. Taking a different route, turning an overnight into a day trip, etc. The single most important piece of survival gear is your brain. Know when to turn around. Besides, coming up with a Plan B on the fly has its own rewards. As several others have said, the mountains will still be there for your next visit.

And finally, by my count the mountains claimed seven lives this season. The other three fall into a different category though. Patric McCarthy was just a young boy who got lost near Lincoln Woods, though he managed to bushwack a fair distance up Whaleback Mountain before succumbing to the mid-October cold. A week later Bryan Richards hiked as far as Franconia Falls on the Wilderness Trail but drowned trying to save his dog. And Lawrence Faulkingham, an apparently fit, experienced hiker and athlete, died far too young of a heart attack while climbing up Mt. Whiteface in mid-December. All from out of state, by the way. A lot of tragedies for one season.

 

[Tim Seaver]

Frank Carus has a tip for the growing numbers of fit individuals who are pushing the envelope on extreme hiking. “Just because you can run fast,” says the search and rescue volunteer, “doesn’t mean you can outrun death.”

“Everybody’s an extremist,” agreed Twin Mountain resident Guy Jubinvile, an Appalachian Mountain Club employee who volunteers with Androscoggin Valley Search and Rescue in Randolph. “They look at the weather report and say, ‘it could still work!’”

Most of the endurance atheletes I know that frequent the peaks don't embrace that philosophy. They have a profound respect for the power of the mountains, observe the weather with a near-religious reverence, and would bail the moment they felt conditions were becoming unsafe.

I suppose these are the kinds of comment that make for an interesting angle on the story ( NEWSFLASH: Rescuers Say New Breed of Nutcase Speed Hikers on the LOOSE) , but I feel the implication that endurance hikers are reckless by definition is irresponsible.

 

[moonrock]

I had been wondering about something else: the role of caloric (e.g., FAT) reserves in extreme situations. Perhaps a "triathelete" equivalent, with minimal body fat, might be more vulnerable to catastrophic hypothermia in certain situations than a less "fit" person with some fat (supply, not insulation) might be [In other words, a fighter jet drops out of the sky faster than a Cessna]. Biology is my spottiest science, so I'd leave that to somebody who knows more, analytically, about human metabolism.. My 2cents.

 

[Jaytrek57]

Hikeritz-

Good post. Got me thinking.

All from out of state, by the way.

I just don’t see the relevance. Particularly in some incidents where the people were there (in the area) the day before. Driving to the trailhead, yeah, you can make the argument about fatigue, but a person who got a full nights sleep the night before, drove 3 hours, are they in less of a position (safety wise) then a person who got less sleep but drove a shorter distance? I don’t know, a bit of a stretch IMHO.

I would surmise that the majority of SARs on Denali/Rainier (insert mountain/wilderness area here) are for people who are out of state…why….well to be simplistic….that’s where the mountains/wilderness are...but a large segment of the population isn't.

You right….I think no matter what state you are from, people may have “summit fever” b/c of their perceived ideas of time commitments, planning, it's relative importance, “won’t get back here for a long time”…etc.

 

[MonadnockVol]

The ability to turn around

There is being well trained. There is being well equipped. But there is also the willingness to turn around. I was on a hike up Monadnock today with some students. Some were wearing jeans, worn sneakers, etc. Still they probably would have been fine. At 2500' we hit the cloud ceiling and then we ran into about 3 inches of snow. Even so, they probably could have made it to the top. We were within shouting distance of the top, but I made the decision to turn around.

How often do we do that? Do we turn around when this is the only weekend we have off this month? When we only need this one last peak to complete the 48? When... when whatever.

The guy I really admire is Ed Viesturs. I admire him not because he has climbed all the 8000 meter peaks except Annapurna, without oxygen, but because he has twice come within spitting distance of the summit of Annapurna and turned around because he thought the snow looked unsafe.

I really admire that.

- MonadnockVol

 

[lamerunner]

Hello, I am another one who oftens reads this forum but had not registered or posted(except trail conditions) until now. In looking at the fatalaties of this winter, we all want some reassurance it won't happen to us.

I am more in the light/fast school of thought , within reason, but it seems to me the biggest issue may be willingness to turn around. The Coxes, for example, apparently had received warnings as low as the Greenleaf Hut , and they were not prepared for severe conditinos; they must have known that.

That is the part I keep wrestling with. These were regular hikers out for a day hike on a route they had done before.
The other referenced fatalaties involved pushing limits and bad forecasts too, but they occurred on more remote o r technical terrain, where an accident may have occurred or turning back was not a realistic option.

 

[hikeritz]

Jaytrek57 -

Your mention of "summit fever" was the point I was trying to make, not fatigue from the drive. I'm thinking of the case where you're standing at the trailhead with your buddies because you've juggled your schedules to find a day/weekend when you're all available, you've found a route everyone agrees to, you've all pitched in on supplies, you've promised your spouse you'll get to that big project next weekend and you've just driven 3 hours to get there. If something comes up now you're probably not going to say, "Nah, let's go back home." And you're right...coming from out-of-state may not be relevant. Folks who live with the trails in their backyards have the same issues with schedules and planning. The long drive just adds a little more fuel to the "Go for it!" fire.

Again, I don't know if this applies at all to these hikers. I tend to agree more with the Master Roofer explanation. The amount of experience these folks had may have meant they weren't watching their steps as carefully.

 

[Peter Miller]

Good to hear from first-time respondents Monadnockvol and Lamerunner. We're going to need lots of different perspectives to comprehend this winter's tragedies.

Regarding turning around: We may yet hear more from Russell Cox as to why he and Brenda chose to continue ascending.

Regarding hiking into a "bomb": Beginning about 3 days before Ken Holmes died, the forecasters spoke about the blast of arctic air that was coming. Quite often in central and northern NH, severe drops in temps are accompanied by diminishing winds. But this time, because the high was centered over Labrador, the winds would increase as temps plummeted. Easy to extrapolate what that meant for the high peaks. Holmes chose to hike to one of the most exposed locations in the Whites at the start of one of the most bitter wind-chill episodes to hit the mountains in a long, long time. Did he truly not grasp how severe it can get above treeline?

That high over Labrador seemed stuck in place indefinitely. No snow, bright sunshine, steady 20+ mph winds in the valleys. Again, easy to extrapolate the conditions higher up. Jaytrek was supposed to have been skiing the day he climbed high on Washington. Did he truly not grasp what awaited him up there? If he discussed his change in plans with anyone before setting out, perhaps that person will eventually share this communication with the hiking community.

 

[mavs00]

hikeritz, good points

While I'm not sure if it applies in these particular cases, I think Hikeritz makes a great point.

As someone that lives 5.5 hours away from my personal playground (ADK's) and always struggles to get up there as much as I'd like, I can somewhat relate. I've done enough foul weather (clouded, rainy, nasty, but never dangerous) hikes on days I would never have considered hiking if I lived in the area and my pick of weather days to hike. I prefer the summer too. (i.e greater margin of error)

Couple that with the mentality of many endurance based athletes/climbers that are (often times justifiably) confident in their own abilities/training to handle whatever obstacles are in front of them, and I can see a recipe for trouble developing.

One of the very best Ironman triathletes described the run portion of the Ironman as "20 miles of hope and 6 miles of reality". To be successful in that arena, there is a very real need for a certain mental toughness to be able to override the natural instincts to fold. The ability to OVERCOME difficulties is crutial to sucess in endurance based sports.

I can certainly see a situation where someone that makes larger sacrifices (like driving in from afar), or has that "I can overcome" mindset, might have a higher threshold for "pushing on", "not turning back" or "not even starting" than with others not in that mindset. It the risk/reward theory.

It doesn't make them bad people; it just has the potential to put them out in a situation that they are not FULLY prepared for.

Someone mentioned Ed Viesturs, There are a great many other mountaineers that had his skills and abilities (but not his judgement) that never made it off the mountain.

 

[Stan]

There are two "patterns" that I see that relate to the Homes and Cox tragedies. Both are worth discussion but I don't think they are unique to this season or these events.

First, in each instance there were what hindsight suggests as lapses in judgement. The first lapse was to press on in the earlier stages of the tragedy in the making. The second was in respect to decisions made during what might have been conditions of distress, even hypothermia. On this latter point I refer to Holmes heading for the Twinway versus Zealand Hut and the Cox's hunkering down when they might have followed a trail (they had reached a junction; even though it was a long way to the road, it was certainly a better place to look for shelter than anything in the vicinity of the ridge).

Second, in each instance the victim was knowledgeable and extraordinarily fit, perhaps contributing to the first lapse in judgement. I continue to wonder, as moonrock points out, if the low body fat is a disadvantage in the loss of insulation and energy reserve as well as with respect to differences in pulse, respiratory and metabolism rates that could work against the body. Anyone with group experiences have anything anecdotal to relate to this?

 

[el-bagr]

I agree with moonrock and Stan that body fat reserves are a factor in cold survival.

Here's an anecdote from a context similar to winter hiking. I am a year-round surfer in Maine. Ocean temps are about 36 F right now at my local break; they almost never get above 55 F. The water's higher heat capacity (iirc) means that it drains body heat faster than air can; believe me, that water is cold! My wife avoids waveriding in winter, but she's in the water with me from April through November. Her larger body fat reserves allow her to either (1) stay in longer if neither of us is wearing a wetsuit layer or (2) comfortably wear just a swimsuit even when I am shivering in a polypro layer, or wear a polypro while I'm grooving in a 5mm spring suit. On early May evenings (before we got spring suits), she'd be in the water without a wetsuit for over an hour, while I'd be shivering and finding it hard to speak properly in polypro.

I would suggest, however, that body fat is only one of many relevant factors. I have a higher metabolic rate than my wife. I eat more food but am smaller. In our sleep, she gets colder than I do. Mental states or preferences also come into play; I prefer to stay longer in a rushing mountain stream than she does, even in the height of summer. I don't really mind being cold, especially when it is relatively safe.

Furthermore, my experiences with cold water immersion are parallel to, but different from, winter hiking. Hopefully one is never immersed in frigid water while winter hiking. My favorite Maine surf breaks are less than 0.5 miles offshore -- a shorter distance than most mountain dangers, but when wind or currents conspire against you, it is a bear and a half to paddle in, especially when you're already cold. Still, hopefully this fits into Stan's requested anecdote type.

 

[dundare]

I think there are some really good points in here. Truly, we will never know what happened and why, but it makes sense to discuss the causes and possible alternatives.

I have hesitated to bring this up, especially because I am somewhat new here and lack the experience in the backcountry that many of you have. In the spirit of this thread, I will simply plunge in and say it and hope it doesnt offend anyone.

In this thread and others talking about these tragedies, there has been a fair bit of discussion of risks taken, mistakes debated, and alternatives ignored. In reading through them, I cannot help but feel that perhaps (so to speak) that these are the symptoms rather than the disease.

Some people have discussed the increased number of winter hikers, the increase of super fit hikers, and the prevalence of lists. Out of all of this, what really stood out to me was the quote by Mr Cox that his wife died doing what she loved and that he felt comforted by that. Given by the number of people who expressed such sentiments on here and on the amc forums, it seems fair to say that there is some element of or in the hiking community that in trying to make sense of tragic death in the mountains trys to bring an element of romance or karma or sense to the senseless.

The hikers who died this year left behind loved ones, financial obligations, responsibilities, etc. Their deaths dramatically affected their friends, families, and so on. These things dont happen in isolation. As someone who lost my dad when I was in highschool (to cancer), I am sensitive to how drastically, completely, and irrevocably a young adult, child, or (in my moms case) a spouses life changes. To me, someone who loves the outdoors, it makes no sense that people would let their love of the woods and mountains obscure their love and responsibility to family and loved ones.

In thinking about this, I really believe this is something that deserves to be kept in mind out on the trail. Whether its pushing a longer, tougher, solo hike or considering a potentially nasty weather report before heading out on the trail, it is perhaps necessary to place equal or greater weight on how much you have to lose versus how much you stand to gain by going on such a hike. The old saying about discretion and valor has a whole new meaning in such a light.

Its not just about evaluating environmental risks and making the right decision on turning around. Its actually far more about keeping a proper perspective about the relationship between a pasttime/lifestyle/hobby/addiction we enjoy and at times live for and the other things in life. Any time (on almost any activity or lifestyle) a person gets so into something that you disregard family, friends, responsibility and personal safety in a quest for exhilaration, risk, fun, etc etc it can lead to skewed decision making and so forth.

I am as guilty of this as anyone - my wife often gripes that I spend more of my time planning hikes, getting in better shape, and out on the trail than I do with her. I am not phenomenally fit. I do not take more than normal risks hiking - I turn around in bad weather quicker than most and despite a steady accumulation of gear to do so have not done much in the way of winter hiking - instead stickint to walking through the snow in the Blue Hills, local state parks and so forth.

I do not know the answer to any of this, but I have a feeling a decent part of it lies in both our conception of risk AND responsibility to others.

Hope I didnt irk anyone or come across as preachy. I just tried to explain my thoughts as clearly as I could.

DD