When the virus meets the mountain towns

[una_dogger]

Sobering consequences for medically lean mountain recreation areas

https://apple.news/AzG4DClkJQa2W9dkU2n90Mg

From the Washington Post
4/1/2020

“Tourists brought prosperity to an Idaho ski valley. They also brought covid-19.
The snow-capped peaks of Idaho’s Wood River Valley are a magnet for movie stars and other wealthy tourists who throng the area each winter bearing their skis, their appetites and their cash. They come for the soft powder, stay for the parties at top-class restaurants and pump money into an otherwise remote wilderness region where the howl of wolves echoes through the night.
But this year, somewhere between the lifts and the lodge, the tourists left behind something else: a deadly virus.
Now the valley is a coronavirus hot spot, registering one of the highest infection rates per capita in the country. With 192*cases in a county of just 22,000 people — including two deaths — the share of the population testing positive is greater than even in New York City.

[Moderator Note]The rest of the article removed for copyright[/MN]

 

[Mike P.]

Now for the WAPO article. We saw NE ski resorts shutting down operations earlier, partially due to area Governors being amongst the quickest to see what could happen. Social Distancing seems to work. Bars, restaurants and places where people are densely congregated need to be avoided or closed or altered so people are not densely congregated. Acadia was closed, however, other national parks have been open and the crowds have still been going, even taking buses into Grand Canyon.

AMC closed their facilities early but bunkrooms, hostels, crowded summits need to be avoided. Staying home is easy, if you can't fight the urge to go, go on a weekday. For the most part, the VFTT readership is skilled, competent and with lots of gear. Go for a sunrise or a sunset, sunrise likely to be better as you won't find anyone on the trail at 3:00 or 4:00 AM and very few day-hikers will be on the trail before 9:00 when you get back. Most of the VFTT readership have our share of rainy miserable days, well, that weather will help keep crowds down. (Please don't go during life threatening horrific weather - I'm not saying go then)

 

[TCD]

Staying home is more than easy; it's wonderful when you are old and retired. I only go out for supplies like food; good, very "non-contact" process here at the Valley Grocery. I take an occasional bushwhack; see no people.

And I'm getting house projects done that have languished for years.

I have sympathy for people who need to work and are stuck out of work. I have no sympathy for people who don't need to go to crowded trails or summits, but just cannot control themselves and go there anyway.

 

[Nessmuk]

Staying home is more than easy; it's wonderful when you are old and retired. I only go out for supplies like food; good, very "non-contact" process here at the Valley Grocery. I take an occasional bushwhack; see no people.

And I'm getting house projects done that have languished for years.

I have sympathy for people who need to work and are stuck out of work. I have no sympathy for people who don't need to go to crowded trails or summits, but just cannot control themselves and go there anyway.

Amen to that. same here. I will add to your last paragraph to include those who travel from hotspots to less dense populations where there are practically no virus cases to date (my home county with a number of vacation residences had zero cases until last weekend, now has only 3). I will include Cuomo's plan to transfer overflow hospital capacity to the same, and also to reverse transfer our currently healthy health care workers into those hotspots. I understand that some may want to volunteer, but if you go, please stay there until this is over. We will need healthy care givers here.

 

[Nessmuk]

OK, If you want me to get technically accurate I will amend what I said in my post to: There were zero officially confirmed cases reported in Lewis County as of Saturday last weekend, when every surrounding county had multiple cases already confirmed and reported. Two were confirmed by test Between Saturday night and Sunday. To this day, the official count of infected patients in Lewis County is up to three. Surrounding counties continue to report many more and are increasing their count daily. The only real information the layman has to go upon is what is released as the official count from testing. Maybe Lewis County was simply much slower to test (and thus to report) those who were medically deemed eligible to be tested (which certainly is not 100% of the county resident and visitor population), I do not know.

 

[peakbagger]

I speculate that there is concern not just for the local population in Coos county as much as concern that the virus can get into the federal and state prisons located in Berlin via the local population that works in the prisons. Should that happen it introduces a entire new level of complication.

 

[Mike P.]

I speculate that there is concern not just for the local population in Coos county as much as concern that the virus can get into the federal and state prisons located in Berlin via the local population that works in the prisons. Should that happen it introduces a entire new level of complication.

It has entered in some state's prison systems. As much as NYC is getting lots of the press for the hospital crowding, how many small town facilities could treat a hot spot, whether it's a prison or convalescent home.

 

[DougPaul]

There were zero officially confirmed cases reported in Lewis County as of Saturday last weekend, when every surrounding county had multiple cases already confirmed and reported. .

Since it takes ~2 weeks on the average between infection and diagnosis and the virus can be spread by asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic* individuals this is not a guarantee that Lewis County is free of infected individuals. Particularly since surrounding counties have cases.
* Average time from infection to the onset of symptoms is ~5 days.

Another way of looking at it is that zero currently diagnosed cases indicates that there were few to no cases two weeks ago. (Assuming that there were no asymptomatic or unreported cases which, of course, is not a safe assumption...)

Doug

 

[TCD]

To DougPaul's point, studies in various populations have found asymptomatic proportions ranging from 20% to 50% of the positive test infected population. So for personal protection decisions, the absence of symptoms is very much not a reliable indicator that the virus is not present.

 

[Nessmuk]

Since it takes ~2 weeks on the average between infection and diagnosis and the virus can be spread by asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic* individuals this is not a guarantee that Lewis County is free of infected individuals. Particularly since surrounding counties have cases.
* Average time from infection to the onset of symptoms is ~5 days.

Another way of looking at it is that zero currently diagnosed cases indicates that there were few to no cases two weeks ago. (Assuming that there were no asymptomatic or unreported cases which, of course, is not a safe assumption...)

Doug

Did I say that Lewis County is free of infection, or will remain at a low rate? Only that it was slower than surrounding counties to either get tested, and as a very rural community to report cases. Cuomo did make a statement that some counties have more cows than people. Lewis County is indeed such a county with infinitely less resources than the favored NYC where the governor wants to send our few resources. I was saying that there are a number of vacation homes in the area there and beyond, with Lewis County being both a destination and a pass through route for part time residents. Also that the local Walmart is an easy target as a first stop for supplies before heading into their local destinations or east into the Adirondacks where large store shopping opportunities are much more limited or nonexistent. County health officials have tracked the most recent case to two certain times at Walmart and are asking people who may have been in the store at those times to self-monitor and to call their doctor if warranted.

Please do not insult me by assuming I am stupid in knowledge about infection rates, incubation times and presentation of symptoms.

 

[David Metsky]

Mod Note
Please remember, attack the post not the poster. Dial things back a little with the personal comments.