More trail closings?

Thanks iAmKrzys. I see this on page 2 "...any person resident or non-resident, traveling into Maine must immediately self-quarantine for 14
days or for the balance of 14 days dating from the day of arrival, except when engaging in essential services as defined in Executive Order 19FY 19/20." I'd read an article recently and went back to find it but this one will do. https://wgme.com/news/coronavirus/g...t-home-lays-out-plan-to-reopen-maines-economy Indicates that July/August the 14 day quarantine still will be in affect.

Encouragingly, a couple of companies now say they have a good chance of having a vaccine ready by the fall of 2020. And development of widespread testing is proceeding rapidly, as well. In fact, recent information suggests that testing capacity is there, but underutilized for several reasons.

But if we had universal daily testing, and a vaccine, today, mark my words: there would be some new obstacle put forward to try to prevent a return to "normalcy." Of course there is always more work that should be done, but I think the better analogy is the old expression "moving the goalposts."

My Favorite Graph - customized for the northeast.

Sample from today:



Tim

TJsName said:

The term self-quarantine isn't ambiguous. What do you think the goal of the order is with regards to your behavior? Sure, there will be people trying to 'beat the system', as with anything. I suggest not getting too wrapped up in hypotheticals.

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I agree it's not ambiguous and I'm not planning it. I'm also not protesting that the shelter-in place orders are unconstitutional or filing suit saying it is unconstitutional. Some people are though and I suspect the small murmur we hear as New England States have been pretty careful. We should see by Memorial Day if GA, TX and others started too quick & too soon. I hope they are right, I don't feel good about their decision though.

I'm not a corporate CEO who today called CA's restrictions fascists or the VP who didn't wear a mask when everyone else did. (he gets tested frequently, it's good to be the King.) Many people who have to go to work will not have this option. In local news, Wal-Mart in Worcester closed as 23 employees tested positive.

bikehikeskifish said:

My Favorite Graph - customized for the northeast.

Sample from today:

Tim

Click to expand...

My problem is that looking at confirmed cases is directly correlated to how many tests are being deployed and actually used. For an example, Coos county was given one of the much hyped Abott devices and then given supplies to do 80 tests and guidelines to only test the sickest. The claim is they now have more supplies. Quest has announced direct testing for around $120, there is doctor in the loop but its fairly easy to pick a few symptoms and they will take your credit card. There will be a spike in new confirmed cases as testing become more readily available. I think NH is using a 3 day rolling average of new admissions to healthcare as the primary tool for reopening. NH is deploying testing in high risk populations and they pretty well have established that most of those faculties are in community transmission already.

Sure - the graph is only as good as the data, and the data is only as good as the reports, and the reports are only as good as the tests and people reporting them . . .

What else do we have that is better? Even with faulty data, I do like this graph, as it allows me to zoom in on the Northeast rather easily. Either VT is doing something more correct than average or they aren't testing/reporting.

I am left wondering why nobody is presenting a stacked area graph (Note: I have looked, but not found this, let me know if you know of one please!) which includes

1. deaths
2. severe cases
3. mild cases
4. recovered cases

All we see is the steady climb. The recovered number is missing. At least stacked area shows you visually the state of total cases over time.

Tim

Peppersass said:

Just received the email that all AMC huts are closed this "the remainder of 2020." I have the option to do Pinkham or Highland, get a refund or a credit, or book for 2021.

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When you think about it, maintaining any type of social distance in a congested AMC hut is a huge challenge.

Peaks said:

When you think about it, maintaining any type of social distance in a congested AMC hut is a huge challenge.

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Family style dining establishments or confined areas. Ballparks, the USS Massachusetts, etc. Will ADK follow suit at JBL? It will look funny seeing a BWW commercial with people eating wings, drinking beer, watching football and the bar, only 25% full. College Football crowds, tailgating....

It may be years before we get an idea how many were asymptomatic as they won't be tested unless required to have a blood test. Their temperature will be normal so until their co-workers get sick, they will just assume the asymptomatic are just not infected.

bikehikeskifish said:

Sure - the graph is only as good as the data, and the data is only as good as the reports, and the reports are only as good as the tests and people reporting them . . .

What else do we have that is better? Even with faulty data, I do like this graph, as it allows me to zoom in on the Northeast rather easily. Either VT is doing something more correct than average or they aren't testing/reporting.

I am left wondering why nobody is presenting a stacked area graph (Note: I have looked, but not found this, let me know if you know of one please!) which includes

1. deaths
2. severe cases
3. mild cases
4. recovered cases

All we see is the steady climb. The recovered number is missing. At least stacked area shows you visually the state of total cases over time.


Tim

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Agreed. It is almost impossible to tell how many have recovered when we don't know how many have been exposed and either didn't even realize it or had mild symptoms. A test in NYC showed that 20% of those tested had been exposed.

But if we had universal daily testing, and a vaccine, today, mark my words: there would be some new obstacle put forward to try to prevent a return to "normalcy." Of course there is always more work that should be done, but I think the better analogy is the old expression "moving the goalposts." Exactly. That’s what I think.

Peaks said:

When you think about it, maintaining any type of social distance in a congested AMC hut is a huge challenge.

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My thoughts exactly. The only way the huts could be opened IMO would be if they could successfully book one family per room. Might work at Lonesome Lake, but huts like Lakes, Zealand - seems to me not profitable with that kind of model. And that doesn't address the staff quarters. JBL - pretty sure it will need to be the same thing but that also opens the question of Adirondack Loj, Shapleigh Bunkhouse, the larger bunkrooms at HiC and PNC - their staff quarters, meals - btw they are anticipating opening July 1. Extend that to B and Bs. We are thinking of a cottage on the lake with a bunch of day hikes.

TCD said:

Encouragingly, a couple of companies now say they have a good chance of having a vaccine ready by the fall of 2020. And development of widespread testing is proceeding rapidly, as well. In fact, recent information suggests that testing capacity is there, but underutilized for several reasons.

But if we had universal daily testing, and a vaccine, today, mark my words: there would be some new obstacle put forward to try to prevent a return to "normalcy." Of course there is always more work that should be done, but I think the better analogy is the old expression "moving the goalposts."

Click to expand...

I agree with this analogy ! Makes a lot of sense to me.

TJsName said:

Are you suggesting that there are people who don't want to return to the previous status quo, amd that they are somehow undermining the effort to do so - and aren't sincere in their desire to save lives? I highly doubt that's what you meant, so please clarify.

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Yes. That's exactly what I am saying. Almost all people in this country are well intentioned. But there are certainly some, mostly in the government and corporate "halls of power" who would happily trade American lives for more power. You only have to watch the news to know this. Thankfully in the USA, that's an extremely small number of people. In some other countries, it's much more obvious. It's naive to ignore this.

bikehikeskifish said:

Sure - the graph is only as good as the data, and the data is only as good as the reports, and the reports are only as good as the tests and people reporting them . . .

What else do we have that is better? Even with faulty data, I do like this graph, as it allows me to zoom in on the Northeast rather easily. Either VT is doing something more correct than average or they aren't testing/reporting.

I am left wondering why nobody is presenting a stacked area graph (Note: I have looked, but not found this, let me know if you know of one please!) which includes

1. deaths
2. severe cases
3. mild cases
4. recovered cases

All we see is the steady climb. The recovered number is missing. At least stacked area shows you visually the state of total cases over time.

Tim

Click to expand...

Useful graph. Thanks. But I do not wonder why all we see is a steady climb; see discussion above.

On the thread topic, I noticed two days ago that they barricaded the entrance to Diana’s Baths as I was leaving my street to go to work.
It will be interesting to see what happens this weekend as far as people parking illegally in the neighborhood next door.
It has been a total mess for the last couple years with a huge uptick in visitors.
I’m always happy to see our town police writing $90 tickets for every car, some literally in front of the no parking/tow-away signs.
The Forest Service manned booth in the trailhead should become a normal feature, much like the one at Lower Falls on the Kanc, though they haven’t dissuaded anyone from parking illegally on the main road over the last two summers.

TCD said:

Yes. That's exactly what I am saying. Almost all people in this country are well intentioned. But there are certainly some, mostly in the government and corporate "halls of power" who would happily trade American lives for more power. You only have to watch the news to know this. Thankfully in the USA, that's an extremely small number of people. In some other countries, it's much more obvious. It's naive to ignore this.

Useful graph. Thanks. But I do not wonder why all we see is a steady climb; see discussion above.

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We see the steady climb because the main thing being graphed is Confirmed Cases which can never go down. Maybe that's your point that the "halls of power" are only interested in exposing that number? Seems that anyone can build a graph - the data from John Hopkins is publicly available on github. I've been too busy to graph it as stacked area myself.

Tim

And just like that, someone sent me this: https://infogram.com/covid-data-hospitalizations-recoveries-deaths-1hdw2jrjlnkd6l0 which contains the NH metrics as stacked bars which is pretty close to what I wanted

Thanks!

Tim

With respect to AMC or any other public accommodations closing, I don't think there is any absolute guaranteed way of assuring that someone with early exposure will not slip into the system even if they test everyone at the trailhead. My limited understanding is the current testing requires some lag between exposure and when the test picks it up. Conceivably someone could hit the bars/party on Friday night and get exposed, head north on Saturday and get tested then head out on hut to hut and become a potential transmission vector to other guests.

Now the scary part, for years many folks have wished that the huts go away. Here is a hopefully a once in lifetime chance for that wish to come true. Several of the huts like Greenleaf, Madison and LOC and to lesser extent the other huts has become the default bathroom break for hikers on heavily used trails. They also are the default water stop for treated water. Barring that the trails are closed, this now means a significant public health issue as people will still use the areas near treeline as place to defecate before heading above treeline. It already happens at LOC in the winter and spring as there are always toilet paper and piles of human crap piled up in sheltered areas when the crew arrives in the spring. Same with Madison, Greenleaf is normally open for caretaker basis. No doubt the "crap" line might move into the bushes and sheltered spots in the rocks but I expect human waste will be a big issue. I would also question the purity of the "lakes" at the LOC, Eagle Lake at Greenleaf and even the "spring" at Madison hut. Many casual hikers do not treat water so there is secondary health hazard. If they don't drink then its just more calls for rescue due to dehydration. The huts also act as first responders for emergencies so more calls to F&G for things that the hut crews dealt with. I expect AMC will need to hire caretakers just to keep some semblance of protection to the huts.

Of course both the cog and autoroad are in a similar situation. Their guests will need sanitary facilities at the summit that are already overloaded. The cog proposed that they would build a "bathroom" car that they would haul up to avoid having limit on guests due to lack of adequate sanitary facilities at the summit. I guess they need to dust off the plans. I guess the autoroad would need to haul porta potties up and pay someone to pump them out and haul it down at night.

Now extend this to the campsites along the AT, the standard joke is that someone staying at a campsite isn't paying for tentsite, they are paying for someone to shovel their crap out of the bucket in the outhouse and compost it after digging out the trash. I have seen Liberty Spring in the spring and usually the crap is at or above the seat. I expect the same with Guyot and Garfield. The WMNF can close them but unless they post a caretaker/cop they are going to get used.

I don't think AMC had much of an option, they had to make employment commitments soon if they have not already made them. They also need to do food orders and arrange helicopter time and even with that they risked losing it all. Painful as it is, they are better off cutting their losses and doing a fundraising campaign to compensate for the lost revenue.

This also most likely dooms the hiker shuttle used by many to head up to the whites via public transportation.

It would take a lot to make the huts go away. If that ever happens I hope it's not until I can take my grandkids to all of them (yes, selfish, they are Tampa kids who are learning to love my home state).

In Florida we have just .1% of the population that has been diagnosed with Covid-19. But that amounts to about 31,000 people. We are a big, populated state and there have been 20 cases in my zip code - not a lot. But.....the numbers are ALWAYS cumulative, which serves a purpose I guess because we have lots of people of all ages who think there are 31,000 people who are sick right now and are panicking because the number is going up and up. That number started early March - many are recovered but they dont see that.

Looking at cases diagnosed daily, the numbers way down statewide, and we are well headed down the slope of the bell curve. Now, anyone interested can get tested, no symptoms necessary. The governor - not my favorite person by any means - will be allowing 25% capacity for restaurants. And beaches are set to open Monday. Very good news.

From the looks of the graph in the link, NH numbers are also cumulative.

I think the media coverage of spring break freaked out state leaders and caused them to close the beaches. What happened in NH.... well same thing for us, except FL is not in close proximity to any city that is a hot spot - NH has Boston and NYC to worry about - Adirondack region too. But still we had hoards of people crowding into tiny city parks and bike trails to recreate. No way I'll be critical of any governor or state official at this point. No way I'd want to be the decision maker - balancing safety with economic hardship.

A couple of FL counties are not opening up in the next couple of days. It's been reported that perhaps the FL State Govt is not reporting all info. See URL: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...-stop-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-report The Hill may be a bit slanted, however they are quoting a Tampa Newspaper.

CT just announced their plan for reopening 5/20 and it sounds encouraging. I try to time my stops on my NH trips to on the way up, that's what fast food restaurants are floor, I'm glad I've never looked at the pits at the campsites. (I may have to drink that image out of my mind peakbagger.) We may see whether the FB and Instagram crowd come up less often with a closed hut system or if it will be a zoo this year.

I haven't been looking at Covid deaths but I think it's 3% of the cases in this state. We have more than the usual share of elderly and infirmed. And yes, there are three counties: Dade Broward and Palm Beach (think Miami area) that are still at a high rate of infection. Interestingly there are counties in and near the panhandle that have few or no cases. Many, especially small business owners are screaming for an opening, others think it's too soon.

It will be interesting with the huts closed and no Highland or Pinkham til 7/1. And, if Maine continues with the 14 day quarantine thing, that may bring more hikers to NH. Just got a notice of all the current closings in NY from DEC. A month is a long time. Things may be very different by June 1.