Climate Change in the Northeast

beverly · Nov 28, 2006

Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast, a report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment. That's the title of a recently released Report put out by the Union of Concerned Scientists, a independent nonprofit alliance of more than 100,000 concerned citizens and scientists.
It's a lengthy report, but there is also a nifty 8-page summary .
I am reading it and it got me thinking about what kind of changes we can expect in our hiking environs here in the Northeast. Heck - people get all bent out of shape (and rightly so) about trails being flagged and chain-saw wielding hikers making new trails and views. Ponder these changes in the Northeast:

• By the end of this century, winters could warm by 8 to 12°F and summers by 6 to 14°F.
• Historically, major cities in the Northeast experience 10 to 15 days per year when temperatures exceed 90oF. By mid-century, cities such as Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston could experience 30 to 60 days of temperatures over 90°F each summer. By late in the century, most cities in the region are likely to experience more than 60 days with temperatures over 90oF, including 14 to 28 days with temperatures over 100°F (compared with one or two days per year historically).
• As winter temperatures rise, more precipitation will fall as rain and less as snow. By the end of the century, the length of the winter snow season could be cut in half.
• The frequency of late summer and fall droughts is projected to increase significantly, with short term droughts (lasting one to three months) becoming as frequent as once per year over much of the Northeast by the end of the century.
• The character of the seasons will change significantly, with spring arriving three weeks earlier by the end of the century, summer lengthening by about three weeks at both its beginning and end, fall becoming warmer and drier, and winter becoming shorter and milder.
• Sea-level rise will continue, reaching anywhere from a few inches to more than one foot by midcentury. By the end of the century, global sea level could rise from eight inches up to nearly three feet, increasing the risk of coastal flooding and damage from storm surges. Some global warming is now
unavoidable, but the extent of change in the Northeast largely depends on choices we make today.
• Higher global temperatures also imply a greater risk of destabilizing the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. It is possible, particularly under the higher-emissions scenario, that warming could reach a level during this century beyond which it would no longer be possible to avoid rapid ice sheet melting and a sea-level rise of more than 20 feet over the next few centuries.

That's the higher-emissions scenario. The lower-emissions scenario cuts that in half, if we were to reduce the use of fossil fuels. Not a great scenario, either:

• End-of-century temperature increases of 5 to 7.5°F in winter and 3 to 7°F in summer.
• An average of 30 rather than 60 days over 90oF for most cities in the region by the end of the century, and only a few days over 100°F.
• A 25 percent loss of the winter snow season.
• A likelihood of short-term drought only slightly higher than today.
• Arrival of spring one to two weeks earlier by century’s end; summer would arrive only one week earlier and extend a week and a half longer into the fall.
• Sea-level rise of a few inches to less than two feet by century’s end, reducing though not eliminating the risk of exceeding the warming threshold that would destabilize major ice sheets.

Winters in the northeast will change dramatically over the next 100 years. Warm and wet. Ugh. Enjoy the winter hiking while it lasts! There are maps and graphs in the reports which show the projected retreat of the normal winter snow cover by the end of the century. And as far as summer is concerned - it will feel like the Carolinas or Georgia rather than upstate NY or NH. A hundred years from now...........

dug · Nov 28, 2006

Yeah, but just think how much cloudier it's gonna get with all that moisture in the air, and then how much cooler it will be since we won't see the sun.

The skiing will be great! I hope my daughter's grandchildren's grandchildren's grandchildren's grandchildren's grandchildren's kids will like skiing. 'Course, they'll all probably be surfing by then......

Pig Pen · Nov 28, 2006

I am going to head down to the drug store right now for some ulcer medication because I plan on worrying about stuff that is out of my control. (Like the weather on all of planet earth).

hikerfast · Nov 28, 2006

I feel good after reading that, because that group is never right about anything. laffs

Chip · Nov 28, 2006

OR...they also think Global Warming may cause Abrupt Climate Change that may mean colder regional weather.

"The term "abrupt climate change" describes changes in climate that occur over the span of years to decades, compared to the human-caused changes in climate that are occurring over the time span of decades to centuries. From ice cores, ocean sediments, tree rings, and other records of Earth's past climate, scientists have found that changes in climate have occurred quickly in the past—over the course of a decade. An example of an abrupt climate change event is the Younger Dryas (~12,000 years ago), a period of abrupt cooling that interrupted a general warming trend as Earth emerged from the last Ice Age. During the Younger Dryas period, average summertime temperatures in New England cooled by about 5-7°F (3-4°C). This and other abrupt events have been linked to changes in an ocean circulation pattern known as thermohaline circulation."

Roxi · Nov 28, 2006

Enjoy the Alpine Zone while you can.....

Neil · Nov 28, 2006

I bought a smaller car. I slowed down on the highway. In the city I learned to drive strategically to burn less fuel. I lowered the thermostat.

Then I read that 10 Canadian companies produced more greenhouse gasses than all the cars in Canada combined.

Then I read that global warming is caused by normal fluctuations in the sun's heat output. This theory is quite popular with Exxon and Shell for some strange reason.

I just hope global warming dosn't bring the killer bees to Montreal. I couldn't handle that.

beverly · Nov 28, 2006

You are indeed a model citizen......

.......of the wrong country

Neil said:
I bought a smaller car. I slowed down on the highway. In the city I learned to drive strategically to burn less fuel. I lowered the thermostat.

Then I read that 10 Canadian companies produced more greenhouse gasses than all the cars in Canada combined.

Then I read that global warming is caused by normal fluctuations in the sun's heat output. This theory is quite popular with Exxon and Shell for some strange reason.

I just hope global warming dosn't bring the killer bees to Montreal. I couldn't handle that.

Personal Steps that can be taken to make an individual impact on climate change. As usual, Neil is ahead of the curve!

dug · Nov 28, 2006

I hate to say it, but many of us are hypocritical. Do you drive 100 miles each way every weekend to enjoy these same mountains that we pledge to protect? Hikers brag about doing every peak from every direction every season of the year. That certainly can't be good for the environment.

I like the Subaru that will pull up to the pump with global warming stickers all over that, and it's burning oil since it hasn't been changed in three years....

Gris · Nov 28, 2006

HA! Global warming is a myth! Uh, wait a minute, might not wanna tell that to the world cup race organizers at the Soelden glacier in Austria (they've had to cancel the season kick-off race last the two seasons - first time that's ever happened...) or my brother's 80 YO sheep herder friend in Patagonian Chile who's seen an alarming disappearance of his neighborhood glaciers over the past few years - that just hapens to coincide precisely with the scientific data (that he's totally unaware of) indicating it's been caused by escalating man-made greenhouse gases...

Stan · Nov 28, 2006

Be careful, there are those who might conclude that the perfect antidote for global warming is a nuclear winter!

Sadly, we may be moving in that direction on both scores.

Count me as among those who admit to inadequate scientific knowledge to be certain as to whether climate change, which does seem indisputable, is caused more by man or by a natural climatic cycle. I do know, however, that it is wise to assure that man's impact on climate change is minimized because the consequences of being wrong and not addressing it can be disasterous in terms of human suffering. If we're wrong on man's impact and still address it then there's no harm unless we take radical steps that cause human suffering in themselves ... which is more likely to happen the longer we wait to get serious.

Puck · Nov 28, 2006

dug said:
I hate to say it, but many of us are hypocritical. Do you drive 100 miles each way every weekend to enjoy these same mountains that we pledge to protect? Hikers brag about doing every peak from every direction every season of the year. That certainly can't be good for the environment.

I like the Subaru that will pull up to the pump with global warming stickers all over that, and it's burning oil since it hasn't been changed in three years....

It took two hours and two minutes before the 'hypocrit' card was played. Trite and predictable

It is a rare individual indeed who can escape the charge. We all contribute to hot house emissions. It is impossible to make make this amount zero without spending tons of money on technology that is still being developed or buying enough land to become a reclusive subsitance farmer.

I can and do drive 10 hours round trip to get to the mountains. However, I do make other choices elsewhere to reduce my impact. But what I contribute and what I conserve is scant compared to the large oil and auto companies who have paid millions to fight and deny the problem.

Given true, honest and affordable options most of us most of us here, I think, would choose to protect the environment.

dug · Nov 28, 2006

I think there are two facts:

1) The climate and the average temperature have fluctuated many times over the previous thousands of years.

2) We are progressing toward temperatures that are higher than ever recorded.

It is possible it is a coincidence with the onset of the industrial revolution. Or, it's possible it is not.

Neil · Nov 28, 2006

dug said:
I like the Subaru that will pull up to the pump with global warming stickers all over that, and it's burning oil since it hasn't been changed in three years....

No offense or anything but it seems like you really like to hate that hypothetical Subaru. Most people are merely trying to get through life as best they can.

Kevin Rooney · Nov 28, 2006

• The character of the seasons will change significantly, with spring arriving three weeks earlier by the end of the century, summer lengthening by about three weeks at both its beginning and end, fall becoming warmer and drier, and winter becoming shorter and milder.

A shift of this has already occurred once, between 1960 and present. Would not be surprised to see a shift of this magnitude occur again by 2050. The impact of having little/no snow, at least in northern NE, has a big impact on when gardens can be planted in the spring.

bikehikeskifish · Nov 28, 2006

beverly said:
Personal Steps that can be taken to make an individual impact on climate change.

link above said:
Each gallon of gasoline you use releases 25 pounds of heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere.

Someone (DougPaul to the rescue!) please explain how 1 gallon of gasoline, weighing ~6.1 pounds can produce, after burning, 25 pounds of CO2?

expat · Nov 28, 2006

beverly said:
.......of the wrong country

Personal Steps that can be taken to make an individual impact on climate change. As usual, Neil is ahead of the curve!

There's one major thing missing from this list. Choose as small a house as necessary. There's a huge difference in heat and cooling resources required for a house that is 3500sf vs. one that is 2000sf.

And, yes, it is a matter of personal choice. Very few of us have the lifestyle that allows us to condemn the choices of others when it comes to energy uses. Everyone has the tendency to point to others.

<<Somewhat off-topic >> By the way, it really irks me when a movie star believes that their use of a Prius to run to the grocery store gives them the right to say that I need to conserve more. When they start doing their own dishes and laundry, rather than having house staff pollute to get to work, or they avoid several cross-country flights, then I might think that they're serious. There was an article in Outside about Elon Musk, a dot com millionaire, who is now an entrepreneur in several companies related to alternative energy. I thought it was interesting that he has a MIG fighter that he flys from time to time for recreation.

Gamehiker · Nov 28, 2006

Pig Pen said:
I am going to head down to the drug store right now for some ulcer medication because I plan on worrying about stuff that is out of my control. (Like the weather on all of planet earth).

ROFLMAO
Yes, those of us out on Sunday at 3600' plus, in one layer, in far NW Maine, in November were sure upset about the 50 degree temperatures, sunshine and no wind. We were sitting around wishing for a gray, damp 35 degree day with a stiff north wind so we could put on all our layers upon layers of clothing and still be cold.

David Metsky · Nov 28, 2006

bikehikeskifish said:
Someone (DougPaul to the rescue!) please explain how 1 gallon of gasoline, weighing ~6.1 pounds can produce, after burning, 25 pounds of CO2?

Each carbon atom in the gasoline is released and combines with 2 oxygen atoms to produce CO2. The weight of the byproducts of combustion is greater than the gasoline because you need to add all the oxygen pulled out of the atmosphere. That's a simplification, but I hope it's mostly accurate.

-dave-

Mark Driscoll · Nov 28, 2006

As a chemist I can say Dave has it right. Let us take a simplified look at this:

Gasoline is mostly carbon and hydrogen with some oxygen, nitrogen and sulfur but these are small. Let us look at the simplest hydrocarbon, methane (CH4).

CH4 + 2O2 > CO2 + 2H2O
16 + 64 > 44 + 36

So we have one methane (16) + two O2 molecules (32 x 2 = 64) produces one CO2 (44) + two H2O molecules (18 x 2 = 36).

So for every pound of methane you burn you produce about 3 pounds of carbon dioxide.

I hope I did not mess this up, it is late and I am trying to get out of the office.

Mark

Well I can not seem to place the numbers under the molecules but I think you get the idea.

Climate Change in the Northeast

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