Does this even mean anything? Since year 2 of keeping records there has ALWAYS been a warmest year on record.
2024: Leas snow than normal
- Thread starter B the Hiker
- Start date
Help Support vftt.org:
I think that B the Hiker’s point is that the CURRENT year, 2024, was the warmest year on record, which is not always the case if you look at the cool NASA graphic, as some La Niña years are cooler than the preceding El Niño years. That is the significance of 2024 being the warmest year on record as we have transitioned out of the recent peak El Niño years 2022-2023 and yet the average global temperature is still going up without even minor reversals. Other than Earth’s orbital cycles, which work on much longer 23k, 41k, and 100k year scales, ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) was the strongest climate forcing (3-7 year scale), but now apparently greenhouse gas emissions have eclipsed ENSO as the primary climate forcing.
I’m not saying the current year is always the warmest, just that there’s been a warmest year since we had 2 years of records to compare. What happens if 2025 is cooler than 2024? And 2026 as well? People will say the danger has passed, which (maybe) wouldn’t be the case if the “warmest year on record” sound bites hadn’t been incessantly pounded into people’s heads. Maybe say something like “the global average temp continued to climb in 2024” instead of using an absolute term.
Then what would you say if 2025 is cooler than 2024?
The short report is worth the read. Here is an excerpt:
Global temperatures in 2024 were 2.30 degrees Fahrenheit (1.28 degrees Celsius) above the agency’s 20th-century baseline (1951-1980), which tops the record set in 2023. The new record comes after 15 consecutive months (June 2023 through August 2024) of monthly temperature records — an unprecedented heat streak.
“Once again, the temperature record has been shattered — 2024 was the hottest year since record keeping began in 1880,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “Between record breaking temperatures and wildfires currently threatening our centers and workforce in California, it has never been more important to understand our changing planet.”
NASA scientists further estimate Earth in 2024 was about 2.65 degrees Fahrenheit (1.47 degrees Celsius) warmer than the mid-19th century average (1850-1900). For more than half of 2024, average temperatures were more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the baseline, and the annual average, with mathematical uncertainties, may have exceeded the level for the first time.
“The Paris Agreement on climate change sets forth efforts to remain below 1.5 degrees Celsius over the long term. To put that in perspective, temperatures during the warm periods on Earth three million years ago — when sea levels were dozens of feet higher than today — were only around 3 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. “We are halfway to Pliocene-level warmth in just 150 years.”
[...]
“Not every year is going to break records, but the long-term trend is clear,” Schmidt said. “We’re already seeing the impact in extreme rainfall, heat waves, and increased flood risk, which are going to keep getting worse as long as emissions continue.”
Similar threads
