Exaggerated Wind Claims In Trail Reports

[DayTrip]

I'm curious what wind speed everyone considers to be the limit for hiking in. I get a kick out of all the trip reports I read recently where people reference doing 14-18 mile hikes into the prevailing wind with claimed wind speeds of 70, 80 even 90 mph. I have a very hard time imagining someone walking 2-3 miles above tree line into a 90 mph wind. We've probably all seen the old video in the Mount Washington museum of the guy trying to have breakfast in a sustained 80 mph. Or the videos of guys trying to get into the 100 mph club on the observation deck. It's all the guy can do to move, never mind go hiking miles in it on rugged, steep and slippery terrain with deep snow drifts, low visibility, etc.

I carry a Kestrel temp and wind meter and when you stop and actually measure the breeze it is quite a bit less than you think it is. What people think is a 40 mph wind is quite likely a 20-22 mph breeze when you actually measure it. And that's the gust, not the sustained levels. I think people look at the Mount Washington Observatory stats and assume the wind they were in matches the peak gust recorded for the day. It is quite amazing how dramatically the wind speeds drop with just a few hundred feet of elevation, especially away from Washington.

So all hyperbole aside, when you look at the forecast and see winds of x mph and you had planned something above treeline what is your "limit" where you know you aren't going to bother? I recall doing the Boott Spur once on a July day to Washington where the (Kestrel measured) sustained winds were 40-45 mph and it was VERY DIFFICULT to walk on the rocks, keep your balance and make any kind of time. I know for a fact there are people in far better shape than me out there but this seems like a simple math problem of wind force against surface area.

Are these trip reports wild stories or am I in worse shape than I think??

 

[John in NH]

Ha.... I think your observations are quite true. I too have noticed most hikers drastically exaggerating winds.

My own gut estimations were also exaggerated until I started hiking with a buddy who carried the kestrel wind gauge. I learned the general rule of thumb is whatever you think the winds speed is based on your senses, cut it in half. "It feels like 50" will probably be measured around 25 mph. I was doing a summer presi traverse once and some guy came off Adams saying "its blowing 70mph up there, its the strongest winds I've ever felt and I'm from North Carolina and have been in hurricanes." I checked the mount Washington data for the day and the peak speed there was 44 mph, and I doubt it was over 35 mph on Adams.

From experience I would say you will start getting knocked off balance at around 50 mph (if not 45). I am in shape.

As far how much is the limit for the go/ no go decision based on forecasted wind speeds, that is tricky. I have a pretty good amount of winter experience. First off, I have come not to trust the wind speed forecast by noaa, mountainweather.com, etc, as it is usually off on the exaggerated side. For example, we hiked the twins this feb and the winds were supposed to be 40-45 mph at the twins elevation and the worst we got was a measured 8 mph gust on the open South Twin summit. That being said, if I was WINTER hiking for an extended time above treeline such as in the Northern Presidentials or the whole Franconia Ridge loop, I would not go if the wind speed were forecast to be above 40/45 mph (and air temp in teens or single digits), and would trust the Mount Washington higher summits forecast to figure that out. Even if winds aren't that bad on Adams or Franconia Ridge, I'd rather play it safe because that is a long time to be above treeline in those winds even with all skin covered. Call me a wimp if you want. Why set yourself up to have to turn around and waste your time? Or worse, if you are with a group, I have found people in a group dynamic almost never turn around out (or even speak up to suggest it as a possibility) out of fear of letting others down. I have known people who have suffered significantly frostbitten feet/ faces in such a scenario. If the hike had just short bits above treeline like Moosilauke, Twins, Garfield, etc... I would probably be willing to tolerate higher forecast wind speeds given that you have cover to retreat to if it really is true. Visibility predictions would be a key factor though, the prospect of being lost in a white out in cold wind changes the game.

Once the air temp goes above freezing I am more willing to go in higher winds for above treeline, but if it said anything above 60-70mph in the forecast I wouldn't go, even in summer. Just not that fun, and there are too many other places to hike that day.

 

[TJsName]

I think a lot of people do overestimate the wind. Of course, if I know that, and then I run into you and you tell me it's blowing 80, and I assume that means 40, but it actually means 80, I might be in trouble.

 

[hikerbrian]

Here's an excerpt from an aborted presi-traverse from last year. Note that the wind speeds I cite are from observatory records, so they are accurate, however what we were feeling on the ground was almost certainly lower than what is written, as the observatory anemometer sits on top of the observatory where winds are the absolute highest. That said, that section as you approach the summit of Monroe from Lakes is pretty much completely exposed to NW wind:

We came up and over Washington from Sphinx col this past Sunday and had planned to finish our traverse via Crawford path. Looking back at the Observatory records, when we came over Washington, wind speed was 50, temp -5. It was uncomfortable but manageable. We continued over Washington, but in the time it took us to get down Washington to Lakes, the wind had picked up to 80 (with higher gusts) and temp had dropped to -10. We started up Monroe in these conditions but turned around midway up and made our way back to the lee of Lakes and ultimately bailed down Ammo Ravine trail. At that wind speed, feeling the full brunt directly perpendicular to our route, we could not make forward progress.

If I'm hiking with a very strong and experienced group, I'll go up in winds forcast to be sustained up to 70 mph (temperature comes into it as well - below about minus 10 in those conditions and I feel it's a pretty dicey situation). I have managed ok in those conditions in the past, again, noting observatory records, with the caveat that wind speeds on the ground would be lower than those measured by the anemometer on top of the observatory. I unfortunately don't have any data for what types of wind speeds I have actually felt. I have been indoor skydiving though, and wind speed of 90 mph was enough to allow me to fly (5' 10", 165 lbs), though if I minimized my surface area, I could stand up normally in the cage.

If I'm hiking with a weaker or less experienced group, I avoid anything forecast over ~50 mph unless it's perfect visibility.

 

[peakbagger]

A lot of wind reports are confused by the boundary layer effect. Any where the wind is near a boundary like the ground, there is significant turbulence and lower wind speed than a point up in the air (like the obs tower). Thus the reported wind on Mt Washington is generally higher than what someone near the ground would observe. There are also local ground effects where wind flowing along a surface will break free and create eddies where the wind is reduced somewhat, these can cause some real unusual conditions including the vortices that are created on the lee side of Mt Washington that sometimes form some very impressive clouds. All this turbulence on the ground is why wind turbines generally are mounted far up in the air as the air flow is much stronger and generally less turbulent. Thus hikers may not be exposed to the actual wind speed recorded on the summit but its about the best reference we have. Generally someone can deal with sustained winds but rarely does that occur and instead the action of the wind against the ground creates turbulent conditions where the local wind speed can vary second by second leading to buffeting. I realize some folks have handheld wind devices that will give a local output but given the turbulence near the ground even those readings are an approximation. I have experienced far different effects in the past from the same reported wind speeds but I do realize the point where I am not comfortable or able to proceeding. I also factor in which direction I am heading, Its generally much easier with the wind on my back although I have been blow off my feet in the past. Walking into the wind is much more difficult.

I also in general believe that wind forecasting is definite less developed art than weather forecasting. I have encountered days where the summit forecasts where for light winds where I had to turn around and other times where higher wind forecast turned out to be far less of an issue.

 

[David Metsky]

We've had this discussion every few years. The general conclusion is that people are very bad at estimating wind speed, but that's OK because they're pretty bad at estimating everything.

 

[Mike P.]

After a Madison winter trip where we had a friend with a handheld anemometer and since then I've been better. As far as the 2nd part of your question. I'll look at the MWO highest summits forecast as being accurate for Monroe through Madison. Slight variations in wind direction and taking into account they may be light of actual wind you get the next day, I don't see a point of going there in they are calling for winds above 60 MPH in the winter. In summer, I'd consider a single peak like Madison or Monroe where you get close with shelter close by.

If I'm planning a long day, how many miles do I want to be in that kind of weather. I generally think of the higher Franconia's & Ike as being about 90% of the higher peaks forecast, about the same for Moosilauke, Guyot & South Twin. Have been on Ike, Madison, South Twin and Franconia Ridge where you had to stop and brace yourself. South Twin was the worse as that was where I settled instead of doing Washington when the forecast was for 70-90.

Wind shouldn't keep you home. (Unless there is danger of trees falling all over the place.) It may send you to Cabot, Waumbek, Tom, or Pierce where you are either protected or you just pop your head out & say, wow, I need to go back in the trees I just left,

 

[peakbagger]

Kearsage North is a great windy day hike, there is pretty good wind cover from the subsidiary summit to the west with the majority of the trail facing south to get the sun. The final approach to the summit is in dense softwoods and once you break out on top there is an elevated enclosed fire tower with 360 degree views. Plus Moat Mountain brewpub is not far away

 

[Stan]

It is easier and more accurate for me to estimate wind at sea where the sea surface conditions correllate highly with wind speed. Estimates can be adjusted on the basis of wind duration and fetch. I have less confidence in making such a guesstimate from the effect of wind on trees because, at least to me, there are so many variables that could change the appearance. In either case it is easy to over estimate the wind speed because of the wind thrill factor.

 

[RoySwkr]

Some people say they went to X on a day when the wind on Mt Washington was Y - that doesn't say what wind they faced but is some sort of calibration.

I have an amateur wind gauge myself but have never recorded anything over 40 mph - it's too hard and too cold to hold it! I have been out in stronger winds when people were being blown around and lighter people needed arm support, one time on Goose Eye I walked across the summit with the wind at my back but had to crawl to get back over it - notice no Presidentials that day!

I would not usually go out in the open if the forecast was for more than 25-45 mph, recognizing that's the high end expected on Mt Washington - most of the time and elsewhere it will probably be much less. If it was really that strong it would turn into a short day. Of course some of the windiest places may not be summits - the old Crawford Path parking lot was right at the crest and it was about as windy there as on the summit of Pierce.

And measurement isn't an exact science even for experts. There was a brief period after the new Mount Washington Observatory was built when both the old and new wind gages were in service, and which had the higher reading depended partly on wind direction.

 

[BIGEarl]

……..
The general conclusion is that people are very bad at estimating wind speed, but that's OK because they're pretty bad at estimating everything.

I agree.

At times exaggerations are entertaining.

The National Weather Service has a weather station on the summit of Mount Washington. It’s very easy to get a report of actual recorded conditions on the summit; essentially an hourly snapshot.

In a recent hike report to the summit of Mount Washington the author claimed hiking in winds of roughly 60. Except for a couple spikes; one very early in the morning and the other late in the evening, the recorded wind speed all day was in the low 30’s to low 40’s mph.

Off by 50%, or more!

Obviously, calibration is needed somewhere.

 

[Maineman]

Why let the facts get in the way of a good story?

 

[DougPaul]

Note that the official wind measurements are made at a height of 10 meters (~33ft) above ground. Unless any of you are 10m tall, you will generally be experiencing lower wind speeds than official measurements made at the same spot.

Doug

 

[DayTrip]

Note that the official wind measurements are made at a height of 10 meters (~33ft) above ground. Unless any of you are 10m tall, you will generally be experiencing lower wind speeds than official measurements made at the same spot.

Doug

Yah I'm not looking to get that technical. If the wind is 33 mph at 33 ft and I measure 28 mph where I'm standing that's just fine.

It's when you read a trip report like one I saw a few weekends ago where the poster says its 70mph winds on Madison, goes up to 80mph on Adams and escalates to 90mph on Washington when the MWO website shows an average wind of 48mph. And on top of that they claim visibility was less than 100'. So either that trip report was wildly exaggerated or the hikers in that group love exposing themselves to extreme danger on a regular basis. They did at least claim to descend via auto road because there was only a few hours of daylight left. Pansies.

 

[DougPaul]

Yah I'm not looking to get that technical. If the wind is 33 mph at 33 ft and I measure 28 mph where I'm standing that's just fine.

Just noting that the winds experienced by hikers are generally less than the measured numbers simply because of the height above ground difference.

The boundary layer (transition zone between the ground and the free air flow) is actually 300 to 500 ft thick with most of the change happening close to the ground. This little factoid may not be important to hikers but it sure is to a pilot landing a plane on a windy day.

It's when you read a trip report like one I saw a few weekends ago where the poster says its 70mph winds on Madison, goes up to 80mph on Adams and escalates to 90mph on Washington when the MWO website shows an average wind of 48mph. And on top of that they claim visibility was less than 100'. So either that trip report was wildly exaggerated or the hikers in that group love exposing themselves to extreme danger on a regular basis. They did at least claim to descend via auto road because there was only a few hours of daylight left. Pansies.

At 80+ mph wind speeds, you are either crawling or flying...

If you wish to feel the effect of a known wind speed stick your hand out the window of a moving car. Not quite the same as the effect on your entire body, but it should give you some idea.

The aerodynamic forces scale with the square of the wind speed, so 80 mph is 4 times more forceful than 40 mph.

One method for estimating the wind speed is the Beaufort wind force scale. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale

Doug

 

[Raven]

Yah I'm not looking to get that technical. If the wind is 33 mph at 33 ft and I measure 28 mph where I'm standing that's just fine.

It's when you read a trip report like one I saw a few weekends ago where the poster says its 70mph winds on Madison, goes up to 80mph on Adams and escalates to 90mph on Washington when the MWO website shows an average wind of 48mph. And on top of that they claim visibility was less than 100'. So either that trip report was wildly exaggerated or the hikers in that group love exposing themselves to extreme danger on a regular basis. They did at least claim to descend via auto road because there was only a few hours of daylight left. Pansies.

No way. 90 mph winds and you're not moving...certainly not continuing to ascend in sustained winds of those speeds.

For comparison, the highest wind I have ever experienced was ironically near the troposphere/mesosphere layer about 30 miles above the earth's surface. It was on my second hot air balloon trip to the moon. I was of course trying to beat my original time and recall being annoyed it was really taking me way off course. I'd estimate that time, it was blowing about 370...maybe 380 miles per hour. The balloon was really hard to maneuver, and I'm pretty good with a balloon. I even hung out three sandbags, but nothing seemed to help.

A little off topic, I'm done with hot air balloon trips to the moon. I think I'll avoid the wind for awhile and try being the first to swim to the South Pole.

 

[bikehikeskifish]

Here's a clue what 100 MPH looks like on Mt. Washington: http://youtu.be/MCbaFEYldUg

Tim

 

[Mike P.]

How about:

Non-existent, almost none, pleasent, refreshing, invigorating, chilly, annoying, numbing, aggravating, difficult, almost impossible to move forward against it or at the side, almost impossible to stand in, impossible to stand in but I crawled to the top anyway & finally Are you f@%^* nuts.

(so instead of finding out I may have no clue what 50 MPH or 80, etc, you'll see I was on Ike & thought it was difficult but Bob from account temps was dancing on Washington)

 

[hikerbrian]

Here's a clue what 100 MPH looks like on Mt. Washington: http://youtu.be/MCbaFEYldUg

Tim

Hmmmm. If that's 100 - they're getting beat up a bit but actually making forward progress from time to time - maybe 80 actually is manageable? I always thought 60 on the ground was about the limit of what is possible for most people (though lacking any data to back up that claim), but maybe 70 or 80 is in fact manageable. Who knows. Mike P's scale is probably the most relevant. But for predictions and what I'll go out in, I still go back to the observatory forecast and wind direction and compare that to what I've been out in in the past.

Here's a dude standing in a wind tunnel at various speeds from 40-100 mph. His facial muscles are getting pretty rippled at 60. And an article that accompanies said video.

 

[nartreb]

A previous thread on this subject:

http://www.summitpost.org/phpBB3/judging-wind-speeds-t62760.html

Related: http://www.summitpost.org/phpBB3/what-wind-speed-will-stop-you-from-falling-down-t25228.html