Finising and Starting the 46

[spaddock]

I started on Porter and am planning on finishing with Big Slide.

I started in October 2002 with my wife. At that time I had no idea what a 46er was. In fact our first peak was Hurricane. My wife's knees get pretty sore now on the big hikes so I'm hoping Big Slide fits the bill.

Just finished #23 last weekend up on Emmons. What a battle that was. Finished back at Blueberry Leanto at midnight.


S.

 

[Raymond]

Any ideas here, Percious?

I just noticed that the figures for the First Summit and Last Summit don't jibe, nor do they agree with the total.

The First Summits add up to 5317, the Last Summits total just 5315.

There are six First Summits described as "unknown," but (naturally) no Last Summits are unnamed.

The total number of registered Forty-Sixers through 2003 is 5327, so it appears that there are 12 Last Summits and four First Summits somehow missing from the figures.

I discovered this when I was trying to rearrange the figures from the spreadsheet to make two additional lists, one with the mountains listed in order from Most- to Least-Frequently Started On and the other showing Most- to Least-Frequently Finished On. I don't really understand Microsoft Excel, but I noticed the figures sometimes changed when I rearranged the rows. I started over from scratch, with a fresh spreadsheet, and began by adding the figures to make sure I had them correct, then discovered the discrepancies.

I also noticed that there was one 2002 finisher whose First Summit was originally listed as unknown, but now says Cascade. Not sure what that's all about.

 

[crazymama]

Loved the graph...

The Adirondacks were my first "high peaks" and with the first (Gothics) it was just a hike with my ADK chapter. I had no idea it would be the first of 46. Then I started picking away at the list, trying to do the easiest ones.

Of course that left all the tough ones for last. Then someone asked if I had given any thought as to which one I would do last. (I had never thought about it, just thought I would keep doing them til they were done.) Well, I'm glad I was able to "save" Sawteeth for last. A lovely gem, which I was able to share with friends and family.

 

[percious]

I thought I would add a few more interesting notes, as requested by other VFTTers.

I did some analysis on the date of completion data. Here are some interesting figures:

Average Time to Completion:
9.33 years

Miniumum Completion:
5 Days
Michael F. Lonergan 

(I know Cave Dog has done it faster, but that was his second !at least! round)

Maximum Completion:
64.17 years
Doreen Smethurst
Way to keep with it Doreen!

The second number has not been verified, in fact a lot of the data from 46er.org is kind of bad, so I had to fudge some of the numbers, assuming typos and what not. Since there is such a large body of data, it is easy for the small errors to be averaged out when determining factors. It would be interesting to do a plot to see if it takes people less time to complete now, or to see how 46ering has increased. Is it exponential? Probably. I can look at it later and post another graph.

Here is a new spreadsheet to play with:


Peaks 2

-percious

 

[Neil]

Percious, that xls file is amazing! BTW have you ever heard of the adk 46er-B category? Supposedly there's only one person to ever have achieved that.

 

[percious]

Thanks for the complement. I couldn't help myself with the graphs. The distribution is interesting! Almost Exponential.
?Poission? In large terms of years, but a nice bell curve for 1-10 years. Most people finish in 4-5 years.

Enjoy!

-percious

 

[percious]

what is 46er-B?

 

[Neil]

what is 46er-B?

I just heard of this category on sunday from Hillman1. I'll let him explain what it is.

 

[percious]

ok, last graph for a while.

It seems like there is a polynomial growth over the decades, but this last decade is completely random. I wonder what other factors influence people's finish dates.

-percious

 

[Neil]

What does polynomial signify?

 

[percious]

Polynomial is not as "bad" as exponential, but it means that it grows at a powered factor each decade. That is to say... If you have X people completing this decade, the next decade you will have X^n people finishing, where n>1. So, if n = 2 then every decade, the number of people would double. You can see how this would add up over time, 2x2 = 4. 4x2 = 8 8x2= 16, and so forth. This is not the case. N is somewhere between 1 and 2. I would have to analyze the data further to figure out the exact number. Anyone feel free to correct me if I am wrong, its been a few years since probablity.

-percious

 

[spaddock]

Exponential kinda makes sense. One guy climbs the 46 tells a few buddies... etc. etc. etc.


S.

 

[mavs00]

Just a guess but...................

The decline in 2000 and 2001 might have had something to do with the damage from Floyd. Some areas, like Allen for one, had pretty significant damage. Not that they couldn't be climbed, but might have had just enough of an impact to limit finishers slightly.

Other than those two years, and the spike in 96, I'd say the graph looks pretty symetrical.

This is pure speculation on my part, I'm sure there is a reason and someone smarter then me, might be able to share.

 

[Raymond]

46er-B must be the Bushwhacker category, awarded to John Winkler some years ago, after he bushwhacked each of the High Peaks.

 

[Raymond]

Are you sure you have the correct figures for 2002? That's the year I finished, and I thought it was something like 281 new Forty-Sixers that year, not 170 or whatever you have there.

 

[percious]

wow, you guys are quick! I did in fact have a slight min-nomer in my graphs. I fixed the graphs to make more sense.

Mavs. I agree with the thought that people didnt finish because of floyd. I you can see that people finished up in the next two years, because there is a spike.

Oh, and 214 46ers in 2002 according to adk46er.org .

-percious

 

[Pete_Hickey]

There is a spike in '96. This was (I beleive) the year of Grace's retirement. A lot of people rushed to finish that year for her. The spring meeting at the Holiday Inn was REALLY packed that year.

 

[mike1889]

Oh, and 214 46ers in 2002 according to adk46er.org .

-percious

I checked my notes and the "Class of 2002" was 221 46ers. That includes all new 46ers recorded that year, which includes a few that finished in previous years but did not submit their paperwork until 2002. When 46ers submit paperwork late, their numbers are included in that year's group rather than being moved to the correct chronological spot in the roster. I compile the annual Peeks Sketches in Adirondack Peeks and I will soon be compiling a roster for the upcoming 46er book. The roster will have the same format as the 1991 book and its supplement, which has the person's name, first peak and date, last peak and date. The 46ers hope that having all 46ers' names in the book will be a good selling point.

 

[Raymond]

I noticed that six of the Forty-Sixers are dogs, but there haven't been any canines recorded since Schuss in 1974 (#1151). Are they no longer accepted for membership, or have they just not been labeled as dogs in the last thirty years?

 

[Pete_Hickey]

I Are they no longer accepted for membership, or have they just not been labeled as dogs in the last thirty years?

No. Since the land re-orginization around the ausable lakes, and the no-dog rule in that area, they've stopped accepting dogs as members.

Yes, I know it is possible for a dog to do all 46 peaks without going through AMR land.