GPS constellation might fail

[sardog1]

Uh oh. Feds at GAO sound the alarm about imminent problems with the GPS satellites:

GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM -- Significant Challenges in Sustaining and Upgrading Widely Used Capabilities

"It is uncertain whether the Air Force will be able to acquire new satellites in time to maintain current GPS service without interruption. If not, some military operations and some civilian users could be adversely affected."

 

[peakbagger]

Boy, what are we going to do, GPS will fail and we are due for period of magnetic pole instability due to the soon to occur magnetic pole reversal so our compasses wont work .

Of course the FAA isnt going to be too thrilled as their plan to uncrowd the skies is directly dependent upon GPS.

 

[DougPaul]

Boy, what are we going to do, GPS will fail and we are due for period of magnetic pole instability due to the soon to occur magnetic pole reversal so our compasses wont work .

Of course the FAA isnt going to be too thrilled as their plan to uncrowd the skies is directly dependent upon GPS.

Many have been aware of our increasing reliance on GPS* setting us up for massive disruptions caused by a single point-of-failure. ELORAN has been proposed as a backup for GPS and has similar accuracy (8 meters). (Seems to be supported in the 2009 budget, but the president has proposed cutting the funding in 2010 because it is redundant...)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LORAN
http://gcaptain.com/maritime/blog/the-return-of-loran-eloran-101

* Many here are aware of the use of GPS for position and navigation, but it is also used for high accuracy time dissemination. For instance, the cell phone system (and perhaps the regular phone system) will collapse without it.

Doug

 

[Ed'n Lauky]

Here is a link to a very good user sponsored website for the various Magellan GPSs.

 

[daxs]

USCG is in the process of phasing out their LORAN stations.

 

[Little Rickie]

I bet this is a lot like Y2K.

 

[BobC]

I bet this is a lot like Y2K.

Get your survival supplies ready now! I'm heading back to my Y2K bomb shelter...

 

[nartreb]

Interesting timing. Galileo is due to start coming online in 2010. My guess, though, is that consumer devices won't be available until after 2013.

 

[DougPaul]

USCG is in the process of phasing out their LORAN stations.

LORAN-C is being phased out. eLORAN may be coming, however I don't know what this means for individual LORAN sites.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LORAN

Doug

 

[1HappyHiker]

Many here are aware of the use of GPS for position and navigation, but it is also used for high accuracy time dissemination. For instance, the cell phone system (and perhaps the regular phone system) will collapse without it.

So true! And also, any failure of our GPS system could even have some impact on food production since many of the mega “super-farms” have recently started using GPS technology for tractor guidance, crop dusting, etc. See link below:

http://www.mapwatch.com/gps/gps-agriculture-farming.shtml

 

[DougPaul]

Interesting timing. Galileo is due to start coming online in 2010. My guess, though, is that consumer devices won't be available until after 2013.

The Galileo program's advertising has far outstripped their results in the past--they don't even have any operational satellites flying at this moment (just 2 test satellites). They have also had their own funding problems (even before the recession) and are years behind schedule--they are currently scheduled to become operational by 2013. I wouldn't hold my breath. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_positioning_system

In contrast, the US GPS system is operational currently with 30 active satellites. (24* is the minimum specified requirement.) The satellites have generally outlasted their design lifetimes. So the chances are that the system will keep running even if the delivery of new satellites is delayed somewhat.

* Note that the system does not fail catastrophically if the number of satellites drops below 24. It will have occasional holes in the coverage at certain places and times. (Four satellites must be simultaneously visible, but more is better. Currently one can often receive more than 4--my GPS sitting on the desk beside my terminal is showing 7 at this moment...) Certain high reliability applications (eg aircraft navigation and landing) require more satellites (6 or more for some applications).

There are also several other Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) at varying stages of maturity/repair: Russian GLONASS, Chinese COMPASS and some regional systems. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_navigation_satellite_system

Doug

 

[sardog1]

Boy, what are we going to do, GPS will fail and we are due for period of magnetic pole instability due to the soon to occur magnetic pole reversal so our compasses wont work .

Of course the FAA isnt going to be too thrilled as their plan to uncrowd the skies is directly dependent upon GPS.

Your compass will work just fine. You'll just have to remember to substitute "South" for "North" in everything you learned to do with it. And remember to wear a helmet, 'cause the birds will be falling out of the sky from exhaustion and confusion . . .

 

[Mohamed Ellozy]

The Galileo program's advertising has far outstripped their results in the past--they don't even have any operational satellites flying at this moment (just 2 test satellites).

Let me be a bit cruder than Doug: I believe that Galileo is vaporware

It was begun as a commercial public/private partnership. This concept went down in flames, and the new public enterprise is busy bickering about which firm (i.e. country) will get which piece of the pork.

For a somewhat dated (Jan. 2008) but perceptive analysis see Loser: No Payoff for Galileo Navigation System.

 

[DougPaul]

A summary of the report linked by sardog1: http://sidt.gpsworld.com/gpssidt/content/printContentPopup.jsp?id=597841.
Might be a bit easier to read than the original report.

It also includes a link to a summary of a report on using eLORAN as a backup to GPS: http://sidt.gpsworld.com/gpssidt/article/articleDetail.jsp?id=597861

Doug