DayTrip
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Good points Doug. I'll take a swing at that horse.
To add for clarification: the effect of water/moisture/humidity is similar in warm climates as it is in cold ones. Florida at 90 degrees with 100% humidity is hotter than Arizona at 100 degrees and no humidity. It actually holds more heat energy.
Your body generates a limited amount of heat energy when you are hiking (this comes from the food you eat and the energy stored in the fat of your body primarily).
The heat you generate is used to warm up your core and whatever is surrounding it. If you are dry, much less heat is needed to increase/maintain your core temperature. On the other hand, if you are wet, the heat you generate will also be used to heat up the water on your body/clothing. Since water takes an enormous amount of heat to maintain its temperature, most of the body heat you generate gets lost to water and is not used to keep your body and the air layers around you warm.
Heat and temperature are two different things. Think about boiling a pot of water. You can add massive amounts of heat and energy to the water by boiling it on a stove. The entire time you are boiling it however, the temperature remains the same. Only when the water is all gone, does the temperature of the container begin to rise. And it rises fast once the water is gone. A coffee pot left on never catches fire when there is coffee left inside it because the temperature can never rise high enough with water present to heat. As a hiker, be the dry coffee pot.
Stay dry. If you get wet, then your priority is to get dry. Wet doesn't get warm in the field.
I'll take 10 degrees and dry any day over 25 and damp.
This incident was on my mind quite a bit SAT. I did the Franconia Loop in fairly lousy weather: 30's, 15-25 mph and plenty of drizzle, light rain and melting snow dripping off the trees down low. I met up with a young guy about a mile up FWT who had only a wind shirt and poly base layer, wind pants and no insulation or layers of any kind. He did at least have a hat, good gloves, goggles and crampons. He was a retired marine (32 years old) and had just started hiking 6 months ago and was hooked and had attempted the loop a few weeks ago but turned back. To quote him directly he said "I went into an REI and said I want to Winter hike. What do I need?". He was really hoping to finish loop today. We talked quite a bit about Winter hiking, layers, the prime hyporthermia weather we were hiking in, etc. When we got to Little Haystack I got out of my snow shoes and into crampons and he stood around waiting for me because he hadn't done trail before (and yes he did not have a map or a compass) and thought it would be better to wait for me rather than do alone. My pack and a lot of my gear was pretty wet but I had a hard shell, proper pants, back up layers, etc. It wound up being a fairly long stop for me screwing around with everything and he started wondering out loud if he should turn back even though he didn't feel cold. I told him point blank that if I was him I would not be doing this hike with the gear he had. I was very happy he took my advice and retreated. I didn't want the responsibility of keeping an eye on him along the ridge.
It stayed pretty wet the whole walk but as I climbed the last 200' or so of vertical on Lafayette a lot of the moisture on my gloves, poles, etc began freezing and icing up. If I had walked that far before I adjusted my layers I could see where it would have become a big problem in short order. Of all the accidents we have dissected on this forum this one is by far the easiest to understand for me. It wasn't so much a pattern of negligent choices and ignored advice as much as a delayed decision that rapidly went bad. Such a fine line in weather like that. I agree with Raven that 10 degrees dry is a way better scenario than warmer, wetter weather.