Hiker Fatality on Lions Head

[peakbagger]

https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2017/09/16/hiker-dies-after-becoming-ill-on-mount-washington

RIP

 

[egilbe]

My condolences to his family.

 

[DayTrip]

Way too many stories like this for 2017. Real reality check.

 

[hikerbrian]

My dad is 68 now - we cut our teeth together on winter overnights, with a couple of quite painful 'learning experiences' early on, and then later some real prize winners once we learned the basics. We don't hike together very much anymore - most of my hiking hours are spent with my boys or (occasionally) doing harder stuff with friends. Instead my dad and I spend time doing house projects - we work hard, and the time feels very high quality, but the grand kids are close by, and I think that's really the main attraction for him these days. Perhaps we'll get out for a 3-generation backpack next year. Actually, that feels like a REALLY good idea.

 

[sierra]

Way too many stories like this for 2017. Real reality check.

Not really, pretty much on par with a normal year.

 

[DayTrip]

Not really, pretty much on par with a normal year.

Really? Seems like there have been a ton of fatalities this Summer. More than I recall in the past 2-3 years. I guess maybe I'm paying more attention to more sources so it seems worse.

 

[sierra]

Really? Seems like there have been a ton of fatalities this Summer. More than I recall in the past 2-3 years. I guess maybe I'm paying more attention to more sources so it seems worse.

A Ton? How many are you aware of?

 

[DayTrip]

A Ton? How many are you aware of?

I can think of at least 6-7 fatalities this year, including NY. Seems like 2-3 people die each year and more in Winter than Summer. I don't track it in detail. I could be blending in incidents from last year. Memory is not what it used to be.

 

[DayTrip]

I did a quick search on Google and found 7 fatalities this year that were hiking related (and also 3 drowning related deaths), mostly people in their 60's with heart related issues. Two additional fatalities I was thinking of were actually in late 2016. So 9 fatalities in past 12 months. Not sure how that compares to historical averages. I came across 5 stories from 2016 about fatalities. (I should also point out I did this research more to make sure my memory hasn't totally rusted over - not to disprove your statement or mine).

 

[egilbe]

Only other death I can think of in the Whites is Greg Auriemma on the Dry River. There was a Canadian AT thru-hiker who died in Carrabassett Valley in Maine. Both of those, as far as can be determined, were from natural causes. I think its fairly average. I know of a few broken legs, though.

 

[Raven]

2017 Fatalities (Incomplete, but here are some)
I would not categorize all of these as hiking related. The drownings might be classified another way depending on if the goal for the day was to go swimming or if it was a hiker stopping for a swim. What's missing here? Carrabassett and Dry River?

NH: Lion Head, Heart Attack, 66M, September
NH: Franconia Brook Drowning, July
ME: Abol Slide Fall, 68M, February
ME: BSP, 56M, skier separated from group and unnoticed
NY: Harriman SP, 40M, Heart Attack
NY: Harriman SP, 18, Drowning
NY/MA: Bash-Bish Falls, Drowning
MA: Greylock, 54M, July

 

[jfb]

http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2017/07/death_on_mount_greylock_not_co.html

 

[sierra]

Over the years, I've come to expect 1 to 3 a year. One is a good year, 3 is a bad year. I tend not to factor in heart attacks and such, as they are not really climbing deaths, more like natural deaths that happened in the mountains. For instance, the guy they found in the Dry River Wilderness would count and the drowning at Franconia falls would not. I also would not factor in deaths from NY or any other state for that matter.

 

[TJsName]

Over the years, I've come to expect 1 to 3 a year. One is a good year, 3 is a bad year. I tend not to factor in heart attacks and such, as they are not really climbing deaths, more like natural deaths that happened in the mountains. For instance, the guy they found in the Dry River Wilderness would count and the drowning at Franconia falls would not. I also would not factor in deaths from NY or any other state for that matter.

I didn't think a cause of death was determined for the gentleman who passed away in the Dry River. Perhaps you heard details I am not privy to.

 

[DayTrip]

My original observation was not NH specific. I was thinking generally of the Northeast's primary hiking "markets" : the Whites, the Adirondacks and Baxter State Park. Like I stated: "there were too many stories like this" in 2017. 7 hiking related fatalities in my mind is a lot for 9 months regardless of the cause.

 

[sierra]

My original observation was not NH specific. I was thinking generally of the Northeast's primary hiking "markets" : the Whites, the Adirondacks and Baxter State Park. Like I stated: "there were too many stories like this" in 2017. 7 hiking related fatalities in my mind is a lot for 9 months regardless of the cause.

CO is at 11 now. If you count all the territory's you mentioned it's no that high. imo.

 

[Grey J]

2017 Fatalities (Incomplete, but here are some)
I would not categorize all of these as hiking related. The drownings might be classified another way depending on if the goal for the day was to go swimming or if it was a hiker stopping for a swim. What's missing here? Carrabassett and Dry River?

NH: Lion Head, Heart Attack, 66M, September
NH: Franconia Brook Drowning, July
ME: Abol Slide Fall, 68M, February
ME: BSP, 56M, skier separated from group and unnoticed
NY: Harriman SP, 40M, Heart Attack
NY: Harriman SP, 18, Drowning
NY/MA: Bash-Bish Falls, Drowning
MA: Greylock, 54M, July

Definitely a list you do not want to complete.

 

[jniehof]

7 hiking related fatalities in my mind is a lot for 9 months regardless of the cause.

Part of the issue is that low-number Poisson statistics (which is what we're dealing with here) are really nonintuitive. Using sierra's number of 1-3 a year, if the average is 2, over ten years we'd see:
1 year with no fatalities
3 years with one
3 years with two
2 years with three
1 year with four

These are rough numbers and there's a reasonable probability out to 7 or so. My guess is the mean is probably closer to 3, in which case two or three annually is the most common and 8+ happens once a decade.

This isn't to minimize the very real human stories and pain behind the events (it would be better if the average were a lot closer to zero), or claim this isn't a "bad year," just that relatively rare events tend to "clump" more than one might think (EDIT: Even if they are completely unrelated), and it's very hard to tell the difference between a bad year and the start of a trend.