It's heerrre . . . maybe

[sardog1]

From the NWS Gray/Portland forecast discussion this morning:

FROM LATE THU NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND A VERY COMPEX SITUATION
DEVELOPS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING CONTINUITY OF ALLOWING A LARGE
CHUNK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THU NGT
AND THEN EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFT EWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRI INTO SAT. THESE DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH A LARGE COLD SFC HIGH
DRAPED ACROSS SRN CANADA AND NRN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWS A TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SET UP S OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON LOW PRES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NE
WAITING OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENRGY TO CAPTURE IT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
A VERY DYNAMIC SETUP THAT WE NOMALLY SEE LATER IN THE SEASON AND
TRENDS OF THE MODELS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. WILL EXPECT
GUIDANCE TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM POORLY AS REFLECTED IN MAX TEMPS
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH WE LOWERED BY 5-10 DEGS SINCE A
DRAINAGE NNELY FLOW DEVELOPS AS A COASTAL FRONT DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL BE
COLD ALOFT BUT MARGINAL IN THE BOUNDARY LAYERS SO PTYP WILL ALSO
BE A PROBLEM. BOTTOM LINE...STAY TUNED!

 

[una_dogger]

Temps have certainly plummetted since yesterday!

 

[sardog1]

Okay, the other 174 of you have so far not deigned to comment after reading. Mebbe you don't share my enthusiasm. Well then, read it and weep -- the new discussion this evening:

MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AND
AFFECT NEW ENGLAND. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS
IN HOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS CAME
IN WITH A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM...TAKING THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. SO MUCH SO...THAT
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT. THE 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER...MAINTAINS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
OF THE STORM. IT BRINGS THE LOW OVER CAPE CODE BY 00Z
SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 12Z SATURDAY. IF
THIS TRACK WERE TO MATERIALIZE...THEN WE WOULD SEE A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY SNOW EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

BOTH SOLUTIONS HAVE MERIT. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY AT
THIS POINT...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE SURFACE HIGH SETS UP ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH
AGAIN WITH CHANCE POPS UNTIL THE MODELS COME TO SOME SORT OF
CONSENSUS.

ANOTHER ISSUE TO BEGIN CONSIDERING IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM HITTING AT A TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. WE ARE
APPROACHING SOME OF THE HIGHEST TIDES OF THE MONTH THIS
WEEK...WITH HIGH TIDE AT PORTLAND ABOVE 10 FEET. IF THE STORM
COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINE...BOTH THE STORM SURGE AND LARGE WAVES
COULD BECOME A PROBLEM.

But for the coastal flooding (which I fervently don't wish on anyone),

.

 

[Lou Hale]

Okay, the other 174 of you have so far deigned to comment after reading. Mebbe you don't share my enthusiasm. Well then, read it and weep -- the new discussion this evening:

I love snow I am just not ready for it here yet. is that enough of a reply for you ?

 

[spencer]

whatever... I had snow on the summit of Katahdin yesterday.

 

[sardog1]

spencer,

Love that avatar! Can the shin bang threads be far behind?

 

[NewHampshire]

We had accumiltaing snow up near Dixville today (granted it wound up mostly as a thick coating rather than measurable inches). In fact, on the summit it was a full blown snow squall!

Brian

 

[DrewKnight]

As ever. Sardog1, I am with you in the snow-cheering section. I just wish we could get the NWS to STOP SENDING EVERYDAMNTHING IN ALL CAPS. Completely unreadable.

I am also vaguely sympathetic to Guthook and Gary, who are in WV environs tonight, going out over the Tripyramids and Passaconaway et al tomorrow... may they be well to the south before this really develops.

I think I could assemble full kit for a hike-and-ski on Thursday or Friday if the situation merits... no snow tires on the new car, so clearly I am not heading south if a "HEAVY SNOW EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS" develops (see? Properly motivated even I can scan ALL CAPS).

 

[Seeker]

I'm ready i'm read i'm ready i'm ready!!!! :d

 

[erugs]

Except that I didn't want to get up this morning because it was so cold in the house, I'm ready and excited to think of playing in the snow again soon. (After all, it's been since late July that I had that opportunity. )

 

[BobC]

Bring it on! Yesterday we were pelted by hail on the way to Maine's Mt. Abraham.

 

[Stash]

Okay, the other 174 of you have so far not deigned to comment after reading. Mebbe you don't share my enthusiasm. Well then, read it and weep -- the new discussion this evening:

...

But for the coastal flooding (which I fervently don't wish on anyone),

.

We on the coast were too busy getting the house/yard/equipment prepped for winter and/or flooding to respond to posts!

 

[Maddy]

Read today's post from the MWO.
40 "unprepared" hikers saved from the summit.
http://www.mountwashington.org/ (dated 10/11)
I bet they were happy about this.
I am....I love snow and ice, but mostly snow

 

[MichaelJ]

http://www.mountwashington.org/ (dated 10/11)

Un-be-lievable. It was clearly posted (I saw it) in advance that there were no rides available down the mountain, and of course even when there are there are no guarantees ever.

Not a rescue-fine situation, but nothing says that the Stage company can't charge them whatever they'd like for the impromptu "hiker shuttle" they had to run.

 

[DrJJFate]

Love it. Cannot wait. I am ready to go.

 

[Quietman]

Un-be-lievable.

On Sat. it was 32 degrees, misting heavily, and 30+ mph winds in King Ravine. A group of 5 was heading up and they asked if this was the way to the hut. I said that I was pretty sure that it was closed and they replied that they were sure that it was open and if not, they would find somewhere else to sleep and left. Then a couple wearing plastic ponchos asked what the headwall was like and we said that we turned around due to the conditions and they said thanks and headed on.
As we were almost back to Appalachia after 5pm, we passed a young couple walking fairly slowly who said that they were going to "the camp" but didn't know the name. I asked if it was Crag camp and they said yes. I said that it might be full and asked if they had any lights, and they said "no, but we'll walk fast."

Unbelievable!!

 

[erugs]

This is always the season of the hiking year when I'm tempted to carry a couple of extra (inexpensive) flashlights. I'd like to print them with a message about the importance of being prepared. Sermonizing is not my style, though. Could I call it a random act of kindness and get away with it?

 

[Mike P.]

I was hoping to get in one more hike this weekend without snowshoes & crampons, of course a November thaw could make that happen still just not this weekend. (Or since the Catskills are not really coastal, maybe i'll start checking the weather over there, in CT we are close -4 hours)

My wife just picked up a couple of cheap $4. headlamps not realizing that I had picked up Petzl's for the kids before their first overnight camp out. Maybe I'll stuff the $4 ones in the pack although I probably could find some .99 cent flashlights somewhere.....

 

[Mac]

Snow

Here's an excerpt from our forecast (Halifax, Nova Scotia):

Tuesday night: Rain becoming mixed with snow overnight
If there's any accumulation, pictures will follow.

 

[Kevin Rooney]

My wife just picked up a couple of cheap $4. headlamps not realizing that I had picked up Petzl's for the kids before their first overnight camp out. Maybe I'll stuff the $4 ones in the pack although I probably could find some .99 cent flashlights somewhere.....

Speaking of cheap lights - I was in Home Depot earlier today, and they had a big display of inexpensive tools - Husky mostly - getting ready for Christmas early? Anyway, there was a pack of 4 headlamps, each with 3 LED's, and as I recall they were about $5 - unbelievable. Wouldn't want to trust them on Denali, but for a backup? They each took a singe AA battery.