It's heerrre . . . Round 2

[sardog1]

Okay, boys and girls, so it didn't happen the last time I cried "Winter!" And if you're a leather boot or Croc wearer, you probably have been smiling a lot recently. Well, read it and weep -- the NWS Gray/Portland forecast discussion from this evening (Saturday, 11/7/09):

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TO SAY THAT THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WOULD BE A HUGE UNDERSTATEMENT. LONG TERM MODELS TRACK
FAIRLY CLOSE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THINGS FALL APART PRETTY QUICKLY
AFTER THAT THOUGH.

STARTING WITH THE 12Z GFS. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE GFS HAS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA OVER THE CAROLINAS...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS MERGES THESE TWO SYSTEMS
JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERRUNNING PUSHING
WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS WHERE THINGS TAKE A TURN.
THE GFS BASICALLY HALTS THE SYSTEM AND DEEPENS IT. THIS DRAGS COLD
AIR INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCES OVER AN INCH OF
QPF IN THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MIGRATES
EAST OF THE AREA.

THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION. AGAIN...STARTING AT
00Z WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE REMNANTS OF IDA OVER MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA. IT ALSO HAS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL THEN BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...WHICH PUSHES THE REMNANTS OF IDA OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z. THE RESULT FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY IS HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF SUN.

BELIEVE THAT THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE FORECAST AND IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY TO THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH RELIES HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND
DISCOUNTS THE GFS.

Whad he say? Whazzat "QPF"? That's "Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. A spatial and temporal precipitation forecast that will predict the potential amount of future precipitation for a specified region, or area." Note that it is expressed in the liquid water equivalent. The significance of that point is about to manifest itself.

Snow often falls hereabouts at a ratio somewhere near 10:1. If an inch of liquid-equivalent precipitation is forecast by a model that thinks it will fall as snow, well . . . you do the math.

 

[DrewKnight]

I love it when you talk snow, SARDog.

For the NH skiers among us: Bretton Woods was blowing snow all last week on several trails, but (no doubt seeing the mid-term forecast was warm) apparently decided not to groom out the whales -- the better to withstand 55 degrees. They did open yesterday on the Learning Center Quad for a few short turns. If this develops, they should be in good shape for some more terrain next weekend.

 

[DougPaul]

Okay, boys and girls, so it didn't happen the last time I cried "Winter!"

I hope you realize that if you keep crying "winter", we may stop believing you...

And if you're a leather boot or Croc wearer, you probably have been smiling a lot recently. Well, read it and weep -- the NWS Gray/Portland forecast discussion from this evening (Saturday, 11/7/09):

I wear leather all-year around--saves on all that annoying weeping...

Doug

 

[sardog1]

I wear leather all-year around--saves on all that annoying weeping...

Doug

When it comes to winter, your Galibier Makalus are to the usual Danner products, Limmer Light-Weights, and lesser lights as elephants are to donkeys. You should be ashamed of yourself for misleading your friends here on VFTT.

 

[DougPaul]

When it comes to winter, your Galibier Makalus are to the usual Danner products, Limmer Light-Weights, and lesser lights as elephants are to donkeys.

True, but the Makalus are much better for ice and snow climbing than all that light-weight summer stuff... And they are very comfortable--never had any shin-bang.

You should be ashamed of yourself for misleading your friends here on VFTT.

Nah! The only people who are mislead are those who make the erroneous assumption that plastic=winter and leather=summer.

Doug

 

[Mike P.]

Can I blame sardog1 if I stop believing the cries of winter & I need to call for a rescue???? (I forgot, I have T-mobile, no bars, no call)

 

[--M.]

We should combine these: anyone who calls their shot on snow and misses should be fined! Details left up the New Hampshire Attorney General, but I recommend

..."calling your shot" = "skiable" and

..."fined" = "one round for the house."

 

[DrewKnight]

I will let SARDog off the hook for my drink... but this one fizzled big-time between Monday night 11/9 and Tuesday morning 11/10, when the computer models started to agree on 'fair weather and high pressure' rather than "cold with an inch of liquid precip". Too bad, too... the ski areas really aren't even catching a break with good snow-making temps.

 

[The Hikers]

Doesn't break my heart

 

[Mohamed Ellozy]

Okay, boys and girls, so it didn't happen the last time I cried "Winter!"

Didn't happen this time either ... makes it two strikes

 

[TDawg]

Too bad, too... the ski areas really aren't even catching a break with good snow-making temps.

This is the worst part!

 

[Mike P.]

While "it" is not looking like it will be here this weekend, it looks like it will be miserable by Saturday afternnon, a cold "November Rain" with ideal for hyperthermia.

Not sure I'd want to be on the summits or water either during this "Gale of November". Well the wind forecast does not look brutal 25-40 but the word "higher gust" leaves the forcasters some leeway.

 

[weatherman]

I hate November. Too many "teases" that never pan out, drizzle, dark, no time to hike because of leaf raking, ecch. And we've had about 4 Novembers this year. July was one of them.

 

[Mohamed Ellozy]

Looks like we were missed by a big storm ... look at cumulative rain south of Cape Cod.

 

[Silverfox]

1.5 inches of rain today in Meredith NH..45 degrees..that will get the brooks flowing

 

[Mohamed Ellozy]

Assuming the rain ends overnight I am planning on a hike with no stream crossings tomorrow . Probably Moosilauke by Gorge Brook, Carriage Road and Hurricane (rather than Snapper for variety).

Question to those who know the lower Carriage Road better than I do: How wet is the section above the Hurricane junction likely to be? I remember from one trip starting at the trailhead that the "bottom" part of the trail was very wet, but how far down is "bottom"?