Major Nor-easter for New England

[Mattl]

Here we go! Yesterdays gfs model completely change course and stunned everyone with developing a major nor easter. Today most of the major global weather models have also come into agreement with a very large storm for saturday night into late sunday. They have a deepening low coming over cape cod and close to the coast at somewhere close to 974 millibars, that may burry central and northern new england this weekend. I am about as excited as it gets, as this is the first real nor easter of the season for the entire region. I can't wait to hike though deep powder and ski everyday. Just to do early estimates, that at the current speed and intensity as well as banding, looks like a general 10-25 inch snowfall which may go up or down. Has anyone been like me and put winter hiking slightly on the side until more snow? The wind will also be incredible, as I see myself taking an adventure up, at least partly, Franconia Ridge to see it. Cross your fingers guys! -Mattl

 

[Gator]

Methinks rain and warm temps or maybe abundant sunshine. I doubt we'll get a nor'easter.


I hope that was a good enough anti-jinx

 

[w7xman]

Rain and warm unlikely but...

Despite recent trends, this is unlikely to produce any warm and rain...BUT

1) It looks like a coastal hugger at best, with snow much heavier as you get closer to the coast. May be big differences east and west of the mountains.

2) Looks like a very fast mover. In and out in 12 to 16 hours. Limiting accumulations for sure

3) Models are far from being in agreement with each other let alone themselves. #1 and #2 are based on current model runs. News reporters are being cautious about amounts with good reason, the whole thing could just go out to see east of Long Island.

While rain and warm look very unlikely...so does the perfect New England snowstorm right now. Right now east of the whites I'd say 6-12, VERY MUCH SUBJECT TO CHANGE!!!

I've been dreaming of this for some time though...

~w7x

 

[Whiteman]

I love when I read stuff like this

The latest from the National Weather Service in Taunton. This will be on my doorstep on Sunday!

Special Weather Statement

 

[Artex]

At least my hiking plans for Saturday are safe. But so much for my long run on Sunday. Still, I'll take it!

 

[grouseking]

This storm is going to be somewhat compact and fast moving. As of now, I'd say southeast New England stands to see the most snow out of this with the heavy stuff possibly reaching southeast NH. I'm sure the Whites will do well, but most likely not the heaviest. I'd count on the "fluff factor" to kick up snowfall amounts a bit north of the Lakes region. Of course I'm praying that these models change more and bring 20+ inches to the mtns. But at this point, any new snow is good news up north.

Another thing that excites me is after the storm, we get a good shot of cold, which mean northwest flow, which usually turns on the upslope machine in the White Mtns...so maybe they will continue to snow a few days after the storm leaves.

grouseking

 

[snowshoe]

I go on a weather chat for the NY and NY area and a few of the people on the site have been very acurate this year. Acording to them it is going to be big. 15-20 inches for NW NJ. Guess we will see Sunday. We are well overdo.

 

[w7xman]

Despite recent trends, this is unlikely to produce any warm and rain...BUT

1) It looks like a coastal hugger at best, with snow much heavier as you get closer to the coast. May be big differences east and west of the mountains.

2) Looks like a very fast mover. In and out in 12 to 16 hours. Limiting accumulations for sure

3) Models are far from being in agreement with each other let alone themselves. #1 and #2 are based on current model runs. News reporters are being cautious about amounts with good reason, the whole thing could just go out to see east of Long Island.

While rain and warm look very unlikely...so does the perfect New England snowstorm right now. Right now east of the whites I'd say 6-12, VERY MUCH SUBJECT TO CHANGE!!!

I've been dreaming of this for some time though...

~w7x

THe latest model runs are coming in line for a storm like those of last december (04 not 05). Think lots of snow boston and cape, and a real sharp cutoff for the mountains. Still, I think the hills will be much more white come monday morning! They can't get much worse...

Anybody around for some xc on monday?

FINALLY...

 

[sardog1]

Well, it's either going to break the bank or break my heart (again). From the latest Forecast Discussion this evening from NWS Gray/Portland:

MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES ON TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE NAM IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE GFS MODEL...IN FACT THE NAM TAKES A MORE INSIDE TRACK THAN THE GFS. WITH THE LOW TRACKING UP THE COAST THEN INTO THE MARITIMES THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS...OVER LAND AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THEN USE THE GFS LR AND THE HPC
GUIDANCE FOR THE LONGER LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

(RE-EDIT: NWS Gray/Portland has fixed their links.)

 

[amstony]

Last I read on Intellicast at 4PM was it would be a southern New England event, with up to 8"-12". They are more accurate locally than anything the government generally puts out, which tends to be more of a regional report. At least it won't mess up my Saturday long run........... Where were you reading 25"?

 

[weatherman]

I kind of think 25" is overdoing it, but...

as the major models are running their late evening runs now (1 is done, 1 is only up through Sat AM) they are looking slooo-www--wer. That MAY mean a longer dump and more snow. There does seem to be good agreement that many if not all of us will see plowable, skiable, play-in-able snow, which after all is our goal, right? So, 10", 15", 25", who cares... even 6" would be fun.
I'm going up Redington on Saturday... hopefully tonight's squalls will leave enough of a base, looking forward to a nice ski in the sun!

Bottom line: Woo-hoo! About time.
-Weatherman

 

[Lawn Sale]

Being on the coast, I hope we get hammered. Anyone remember the storm of '93? I do as it was the only time I was able to snowshoe straight onto the roof due to the drifts.

I'm either ready for spring or for snow, but please, no more junk, I just can't take it anymore...

 

[grouseking]

Quite a storm

This is going to be one hell of a storm, unfortunately not for the mountains. They'll get snow sure, but once again I think they will miss the worst. Mattl, I hope I'm wrong, but maybe next time. Hopefully the upslope machine will crank out 6+ inches of snow after the storm departs.

Too bad its not going to last longer. Stakes are high for a really nasty-high impact storm with blizzard conditions for southern new england possibly up to southeast NH. Whatver happens, I it looks like I will be snowshoeing in my town next week.

grouseking

 

[lumberzac]

Looks like the Adirondacks won't get much from this storm as usual with costal storms. We need more lake effect snow!

 

[giggy]

biggest problem would be driving to southern NE on sunday -

once again the news (massachusetts media) has this hyped up to be the biggest snowstorm since 1978.

 

[Mattl]

the models have changed track and intensity..this is indeed a sad time -Mattl

 

[hikerfast]

lesson learned. we will all gladly predict the weather after it's happened

 

[marty]

My wife just called and told me that people are emptying out the stores in Eastern Massachusetts. I would suppose that the average person would need some economy packs of batteries (all sizes), 12 flashlights, 50 candles, 10 lighters, a month's worth of can goods, a shopping cart full of dry goods, a couple of shovels, 5 bags of ice melt and a new snow blower.

 

[Chip]

My wife just called and told me that people are emptying out the stores in Eastern Massachusetts. I would suppose that the average person would need some economy packs of batteries (all sizes), 12 flashlights, 50 candles, 10 lighters, a month's worth of can goods, a shopping cart full of dry goods, a couple of shovels, 5 bags of ice melt and a new snow blower.

don't forget the ammo and high powered rifles !
People are funny, most could live off the canned food in their pantry for a month if they thought about it. I would LOVE a storm where you couldn't get out for a couple days. Most of us here would be living large while rumors of cannibalism would circulate on CNN.
And what's up with normal traffic laws during a snow storm ? Did someone decide they were okay to ignore during a storm and forget to tell me ?

 

[Tom Rankin]

"I don't think motor roads should be built to the top of the best peaks. I'd be awfully annoyed if, after a ten-hour scramble up the side of a mountain, I arrived breathless and exhausted at my goal just in time to see a fat dowager in printed chiffon drive up in a limousine to park between me and the view". Louise Dickinson Rich - We Took To The Woods

If you ever go to Whiteface in the ADKs, you will experience almost exactly this quote!