Massive heat wave coming to North Conway area

[B the Hiker]

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USNH0169:1:US

Highs of 59-63 and a twelve-day forecasted low of just 35!

This is going to make for some interesting stream crossings!



Brian

 

[NorthShore]

Not good. It needs to at least be freezing at night. Better get my licks in early in the week.

 

[B the Hiker]

It could be worse...not a great time to be an ice climber at the moment!

 

[peakbagger]

Normally spring floods occur due to heavy rain acting as a catalyst to convert the snow pack into water on rare occasions it just takes an unusual warm spell. Its happened in the whites about 20 years ago. No rain just really warm weather, it caused significant issues as the rivers still had ice in them causing ice jams. RT 2 in Gorham was underwater and closed for about a day and Mr Pizza had water up to the building. This forecast looks very similar.

 

[NorthShore]

While it is going to be warm, that TWC forecast is completely wacky. I find the NWS much more reliable:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-71.12318139395708&lat=44.04815322837243#.WKmj2nQo7qA

 

[peakbagger]

The snow pack is definitely "burning" quick up north. The local snow pack has easily dropped by a 1/3rd to a half over this past weekend.

 

[DayTrip]

The snow pack is definitely "burning quick up north. The local snow pack has easily dropped by a 1/3rd to a half over this past weekend.

I went up yesterday and was pretty surprised at how normal everything looked. Was expecting huge snowbanks, drifts, etc but really nothing at all like that. I was pretty surprised by conditions on trails too. I attempted Zealand and the snow all the way up to Zeacliff outlook (where I threw in the towel) was wet and soft and the snow on tree branches had already melted off. I figured the lower elevations might be wetter but based on the temps of past few days I thought upper elevations would have been more powdery with drifting. Was a wet, well packed track from Rte 302 all the way to the outlook. Guess that warm up had a pretty quick impact on conditions.

 

[SherpaWill]

I climbed Willey's Slide on Saturday and the weather was outstanding. The ice had a lot of water under the surface which made things interesting. Tons of snow on the descent through the woods.

 

[Mike P.]

I believe the Friday Night Saturday forecast is for rain, look west at the line following the front. I'm with a scout group going to Pat's Peak in Henniker, warm in okay of the there is snow but a 40-45 degree rain may mean a lot of time indoors.

Wouldn't look at taking the short cut across Lonesome Lake either.....

 

[B the Hiker]

As I write this (3pm on Thursday, Feb 23, it's 65 degrees in North Conway!

Just as a benchmark, here are most recent snow depths at the stake, as reported by the caretakers:
Lonesome Lake 45
Highland Center 25
Zealand Falls 38
Carter Notch 45.5
Observatory 70.6

Let's see what it's like next week...



Brian

 

[peakbagger]

Flood warnings in VT and the ADKs for the weekend due to the potential for snow pack collapse caused by a front with heavy rain coming through on Saturday.

Still plenty of snow in my yard in Gorham but the snow is definitely starting to look like "rotten" spring snow. Doesn't take much rain to chew that stuff up.

58" inches on 2/22 at Gray Knob (they update every Thursday). I expect the Wild River will be letting loose this weekend.

This is way too early

 

[TJsName]

As I write this (3pm on Thursday, Feb 23, it's 65 degrees in North Conway!

Just as a benchmark, here are most recent snow depths at the stake, as reported by the caretakers:
Lonesome Lake 45
Highland Center 25
Zealand Falls 38
Carter Notch 45.5
Observatory 70.6

Let's see what it's like next week...



Brian

I wish they gave a water equivalent. The snow compacts over time, so the 45 inches now is a lot more dense than 45 a few weeks ago.

Also, man was it hot today at Cannon!

 

[RollingRock]

Looks like it will get cooler Saturday night so waiting until Sunday to hike up Mt. Liberty. The trail should be frozen once more for MicroSpikes but the brook crossings might still be challenging. Hope to get up and down before the snow starts to get soft.

 

[DougPaul]

I wish they gave a water equivalent. The snow compacts over time, so the 45 inches now is a lot more dense than 45 a few weeks ago.

A snow water equivalent map can be found at http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interact...ight=450&nw=600&nh=450&h_o=0&font=0&js=1&uc=0

There are several snow water equivalent maps accessible from http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow

Doug

 

[peakbagger]

The first batch of rain has started in the north country.

 

[DayTrip]

The first batch of rain has started in the north country.

Are you seeing an uptick in river levels? Was just looking at the East Branch Pemi River Gauge and while it has gone up it's only around 300 cfm, which is pretty low (although that has translated into a foot in height increase). Was expecting to see much higher water levels at this point. Debating if it is worth the effort to hike SUN.

 

[peakbagger]

The primary front and biggest potential for run off related flooding is Saturday night into Sunday. Tomorrow for much of the day looks cloudy but might be good spring hiking if you don't need the views. VFTT used to have several white water paddlers and many hikers do WW in addition to hiking. The best option for hiking on Sunday may be paddling . The hassle with predicting runoff related flooding is the snow has to get "rotten" enough that a quantity of rain puts in enough energy into the snow pack that the snow decides to quickly melt. The snow pack may just absorb it in areas or it may quickly liquefy. There also can be ice dams that form and that can create a wall of water. That would be my biggest concern with hiking along mountain streams and rivers in the whites. It doesn't take much for jam to form at a sharp turn in stream and then build up quite a bit of water behind it.

I would guess the river levels will be pretty flat or slow rising until the front goes through and there will be an uptick in flow but the timing isn't great for a real blow out as its happening at night with cold weather coming in behind the front. It is interesting to see the amount of ground fog that has appeared since noon that is usually a pretty good hint that snowpack is getting ripe. The forecast is for high winds on Sunday.

I used to build boats on weekends like this but hard to build any more since I have two kayaks and two canoes in inventory.

 

[DayTrip]

The primary front and biggest potential for run off related flooding is Saturday night into Sunday. Tomorrow for much of the day looks cloudy but might be good spring hiking if you don't need the views. VFTT used to have several white water paddlers and many hikers do WW in addition to hiking. The best option for hiking on Sunday may be paddling . The hassle with predicting runoff related flooding is the snow has to get "rotten" enough that a quantity of rain puts in enough energy into the snow pack that the snow decides to quickly melt. The snow pack may just absorb it in areas or it may quickly liquefy. There also can be ice dams that form and that can create a wall of water. That would be my biggest concern with hiking along mountain streams and rivers in the whites. It doesn't take much for jam to form at a sharp turn in stream and then build up quite a bit of water behind it.

I would guess the river levels will be pretty flat or slow rising until the front goes through and there will be an uptick in flow but the timing isn't great for a real blow out as its happening at night with cold weather coming in behind the front. It is interesting to see the amount of ground fog that has appeared since noon that is usually a pretty good hint that snowpack is getting ripe. The forecast is for high winds on Sunday.

I used to build boats on weekends like this but hard to build any more since I have two kayaks and two canoes in inventory.

So you're saying Isolation might be a bad idea? Unfortunately SUN is my only possible hiking day again this weekend and after seeing all the spectacular hiking photos from hikes they took this week I'm chomping at the bit. But it looks like I'll be staying local. Supposed to be pretty nice down here and the ride to NH will not be the best way to enjoy the day.

 

[egilbe]

My gf and I are going to stay home this weekend and do stuff around the house. Most weekends this Winter have been spent hiking or camping or volunteering at Maine Huts and Trails. Leaves very little time for chores when you get home on Sunday afternoon and have to clean, repair or dry equipment and clothing.

Avoiding slushy snow sounds like a good reason to stay home.

 

[peakbagger]

If 5 PM Saturday and the Pemi gauges are definitely showing significant melt over the last two days. Looking at the radar I expect they are going to be real interesting in the morning