Mother of all nor'easters coming?

[sardog1]

Accuweather is warning about possible 100-year storm for early next week.

NWS Gray is a little more restrained . . . for now:

SUN...ONE LAST GASP TO WINTER...AND A HEALTHY ONE AT THAT. MODELS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING INTENSIFYING LOW TO THE MID ATLC
REGION BY SUNDAY. LOW FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK...BEFORE
DOING A CLASSIC LOOP IN THE SAME VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW CAPTURES SYSTEM. WHAT A SPRING. WILL APRIL SNOWFALL RECORDS
FALL? ALL-TIME SNOWIEST FOR THE FOREST CITY IS 20.5 INCHES WAY
BACK IN APRIL 1906. 30 YEAR AVERAGE FOR PORTLAND IS 3.2 INCHES.

HAVE UPPED WINDS AND SEAS FOR DAY 4...HOWEVER LEFT ROOM FOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT TRACK/INTENSITY WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH TIME.

COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL: IF TRACK/INTENSITY HOLDS...THERE WILL
BE PROBLEMS ALONG THE COAST (MAINLY SOUTH OF PORTLAND) SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MONDAY WOULD BE THE MOST VULNERABLE TIME FOR AND
COASTAL FLOODING...SPLASH-OVER AND BEACH EROSION AS LARGE...HIGH
ENERGY OCEAN WAVES WOULD HAVE HAD TIME TO DEVELOP AND COMBINE WITH
AN INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE.. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES INCREASE
WITH TIME DURING THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT...RIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
HAVING SAID ALL THIS...IT'S STILL EARLY AND WE HAVE A COUPLE MORE
DAYS TO REVIEW THIS POTENTIAL.

 

[sardog1]

New analysis from NWS Gray/Portland

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 PM EDT THU APR 12 2007

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE GFS/NAM/UKMET/GEM/EUROPEAN THAT THERE WILL BE A MAJOR
EAST COAST STORM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UNCERTAINTY IS IN
WHERE THE LOW WILL DEVELOP...AND ULTIMATELY STALL. THE 00/06/12Z
GFS AND THE 00Z EUROPEAN BRING THE LOW AS FAR NORTH AS
CONNECTICUT...REPRESENTING THE FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION. THE 12Z
NAM/UKMET/GEM ALL HINT AT A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION...ONLY MAKING IT TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. BEST
APPROACH IN THIS TIME FRAME IS A CONSENSUS.

A CONSENSUS APPROACH SUGGESTS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING TO AROUND
975 MB NEAR LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLING AND SLOWLY
CIRCLING COUNTERCLOCKWISE MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
ON TUESDAY. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TRACK...THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO COULD POSE THE FOLLOWING PROBLEMS...

COASTAL FLOODING IS THE MOST PROMINENT CONCERN...WITH EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS PEAKING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS SUSTAINED SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND REMAINING IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY. SUCH A
PROLONGED AND STRONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT
STORM SURGE...POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 FEET. ALSO...TIDES WILL BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE...AT PORTLAND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE...10.6 AT 1014
PM SUNDAY EVENING...10.6 1041 MONDAY MORNING...AND 11.2 1102 PM
MONDAY EVENING. EACH OF THESE HIGH TIDES COULD POTENTIALLY EXCEED
12 FOOT WITH THE SURGE AT PORTLAND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF EROSION...AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOODING. ALSO...SEAS
COULD APPROACH 20 FEET DURING THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT.

2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...TAPERING TO 1 OR 2 INCHES IN THE
FOOTHILLS...TO MUCH LESS FAR NORTH. THIS COULD CAUSE SMALL STREAM
FLOODING SOUTH...WHERE MUCH OF IT IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS
RAIN...AND CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WET.

FINALLY...IN THE FOOTHILLS...FROM CON-IZG-LEW-AUG NORTH A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL
FALL AS SNOW. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE MARGINAL...HOWEVER SNOWFALL
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THIS ALL IS DEPENDANT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND THIS FAR
OUT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MARGIN FOR ERROR. WHILE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS REMAIN QUITE A WAYS OFF...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LATE WEEKEND EVENT.

 

[Artex]

Reading that makes me almost glad that I failed to qualify for the Boston Marathon this year.

 

[Mattl]

This will be an epic storm..get ready. The snow may be measured in many feet in mountain areas. -Mattl

 

[grouseking]

I wish I could draw a map.....

This might not be about hiking, but it really is going to affect a large portion of people, so I figured I'd go into a little more detail on the possibilities, even though we're still a few days away. The magnitude of this thing could be immense...much like a once in 100 year event, but since its April and there is a chance of lots of heavy wet snow over a large area, it would be more like a once in 300 year event!!

Its still really early to pinpoint where this is going to go. The storm is going to be a cutoff low, meaning upper level winds won't be able to steer it, so the storm will stall and meander south of New England somewhere starting later Sunday and last thru possibly Tuesday. If it stalls near NYC, it will rain in many areas of southern New England and further north, snow will change to heavy rain, shut off, and then end as a snow burst. It would be a weird situation where it will rain in western Maine and be snowing down in New Jersey!

If the storm is further east, like closer to Cape Cod, then we're under the gun for a huge dumping of snow, including the bigger cities. Another wild card is the fact that its mid April, the sun angle is high, and snow has a tough time accumulating during the day. Note what happened in southern NH and northern MA today....the precip was late so it warmed up enough and it was mostly a rainstorm till the end (unless you added some elevation).

Bottom line...the places that stay all rain could get 3-5 inches of liquid which would be a problem for flooding. The places who stay all snow.......someone is going to be measuring it with a yard stick!! Right now those places look to be eastern upstate NY and any highly elevated areas of northern New England. In the lower elevations, a general 6-12 inches is a great early conservative estimate, before they possibly change to rain. But again....time will tell.

One more thing, if this storm stalls there will be coastal flooding, esp if there is an easterly wind component in New England. Most places except for Naragansett Bay get coastal flooding on easterly winds. So if you live along the beach, take precautions starting tomorrow.

It's best to play it conservatively right now, despite the incredible risks this storm has.

Disclaimer...this will change tomorrow

grouseking

PS Forgot to mention the potential for hurricane force gusts along the southern New England coasts and the possibility of tropical storm force wind gusts throughout New England. That's going to be one hell of a head wind if the marathon is held on schedule!!

 

[giggy]

we are all going to die........................

 

[forestgnome]

My optimism is being tested. Pray for rain. Warm, melting rain.

"Everytime the rain comes down,
close my eyes and listen"
Enya

 

[NewHampshire]

we are all going to die........................

Darn, and me without a fresh pair of underoos!

Brian

 

[spencer]

Of all the weekends to go to NYC. Oh my, I'm driving to NYC tonight in this mess and then driving home on Monday in that mess.

 

[skiguy]

This might not be about hiking, but it really is going to affect a large portion of people, so I figured I'd go into a little more detail on the possibilities, even though we're still a few days away. The magnitude of this thing could be immense...much like a once in 100 year event, but since its April and there is a chance of lots of heavy wet snow over a large area, it would be more like a once in 300 year event!!

Its still really early to pinpoint where this is going to go. The storm is going to be a cutoff low, meaning upper level winds won't be able to steer it, so the storm will stall and meander south of New England somewhere starting later Sunday and last thru possibly Tuesday. If it stalls near NYC, it will rain in many areas of southern New England and further north, snow will change to heavy rain, shut off, and then end as a snow burst. It would be a weird situation where it will rain in western Maine and be snowing down in New Jersey!

If the storm is further east, like closer to Cape Cod, then we're under the gun for a huge dumping of snow, including the bigger cities. Another wild card is the fact that its mid April, the sun angle is high, and snow has a tough time accumulating during the day. Note what happened in southern NH and northern MA today....the precip was late so it warmed up enough and it was mostly a rainstorm till the end (unless you added some elevation).

Bottom line...the places that stay all rain could get 3-5 inches of liquid which would be a problem for flooding. The places who stay all snow.......someone is going to be measuring it with a yard stick!! Right now those places look to be eastern upstate NY and any highly elevated areas of northern New England. In the lower elevations, a general 6-12 inches is a great early conservative estimate, before they possibly change to rain. But again....time will tell.

One more thing, if this storm stalls there will be coastal flooding, esp if there is an easterly wind component in New England. Most places except for Naragansett Bay get coastal flooding on easterly winds. So if you live along the beach, take precautions starting tomorrow.

It's best to play it conservatively right now, despite the incredible risks this storm has.

Disclaimer...this will change tomorrow

grouseking

PS Forgot to mention the potential for hurricane force gusts along the southern New England coasts and the possibility of tropical storm force wind gusts throughout New England. That's going to be one hell of a head wind if the marathon is held on schedule!!

I'm bumming...no upslope this time?

 

[jrbren]

Will it bring the africanized killer bees with it ?

 

[DougPaul]

I'm bumming...no upslope this time?

Maybe only if you ski eastern slopes...

Doug

 

[daxs]

In South Jersey right now the forecasts have been for torrential rains, high winds and coastal flooding.

 

[sardog1]

Accuweather guy thinks New York and PA get the dump, rest of us get drowned while we wait in the dark.

 

[grouseking]

Yeah I didn't mean to sound "doom and gloom." Just laying out the potential....This will be a fairly decent snow for the upper elevations. It kind of worries me because they don't need any more snow in the higher elevation...it has been awhile since I've seen 62 inches at Hermit Lakes this time of year. I wonder if this will have a negative effect on animals? This storm will be an elevation thumping too....

And yes, there will be upslope (much like today).

The tough call is in the lower valleys and parts of south central New England, where snow and rain will prob flip flop back and forth. Lots of uncertainties remain, but it looks like northern New Eng will not escape heavy snow, esp in the higher terrain.

grouseking

 

[king tut]

As long as Tuckerman's gets 5 feet of snow so I can go skiing on a nice sunny May day, then I will be psyched! Please no more blizzards in Burlington, i need to start barbecue season soon.

 

[sardog1]

Here's a live shot of Big Mama on her way.

Here's a smaller version that fits her butt on your screen.

 

[sardog1]

Accuweather guy now says big snow for PA and NY, coastal pounding for Jersey Shore to Cape Cod, flood threat for New England. "Not all that bad for the marathon."

NWS Gray/Portland has some more localized details:

EXPECT THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO HIT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY
RAIN SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION
TYPE...WITH A MIX IN THE FOOTHILLS...AND LIKELY SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THICKNESSES MARGINAL...EVEN THE COOLER NAM IS
MARGINAL...EXPECT ELEVATION TO BE A KEY TOO...WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MUCH MORE LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY SNOW. THIS COULD BE AN
EVENT WHERE THE MOUNTAINS GET WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW...WHILE THE
VALLEYS SEE VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION. ALSO...EXPECT THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO GET SOMEWHAT SHADOWED.

MONDAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING. MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE RAIN BY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW MAY CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATION. THROUGH
MONDAY...2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AUG-IZG-LEB.
THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN STREAMS AND RIVERS.

ALSO...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. WHILE HIGH
TIDES SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING...AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALL BE
AN ISSUE...MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE MOST SERIOUS
CONCERN...WITH POTENTIALLY STORM FORCE WINDS ONSHORE...COULD SEE A
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING EVENT.

(AUG-IZG-LEB = Augusta, ME -- Fryeburg, ME -- Lebanon, NH)

 

[daxs]

Well, in south jersey, there is certainly a calm before the big storm. It's sunny and warm today, about 60. A gorgeous day.

 

[banjolady]

yeah we are getting TONS of rain down here in metro ny. in conway nh this morning it was starting to rain at 11am. the ski areas are getting excited!!