Opinions on Sunday hike to Kinsmans w Cold Snap

[pedxing]

A couple weeks ago, I agreed to cooperate in taking a group (from a meetup) to hike the Kinsmans via Lonesome Lake. My experience in winter hikes is moderate (dozens of winter ascents), some will be much more experienced, some less experienced.

I've been watching the forecasts and the predicted temperatures dipped radically and have now moderated but a wind chill warning is in effect and warranted for the weekend- which means to me that I need to expand my range of uncertainty about the temps and winds. I've hit conditions colder than what is predicted.

I've organized a bunch of meetup hikes and a few backpacks on my own and have always made it clear that my function was primarily social that people shouldn't come on any hike they wouldn't be comfortable with doing with a friend whose knowledge and ability was equal to their own. Still, people over-estimate their knowledge and ability. So, I am wondering - should I cancel? Should I shift the goal to Kinsman pond and the shelter there? Should I say lots of scary things to scare off people who might not be prepared? Should I just be clear that there is a good chance we might turn around when we hit tree line? Some combination of these? Right now I'm back and forth between pushing to reschedule (not entirely my decision since it wasn't my plan) and going ahead, and some combination of the other strategies.

I do have one thing that gives me some security. The organizer is planning on going just to Lonesome Lake with some folks, while I go to the Kinsman's. I have planned on encouraging people who look unprepared to stop at the hut. I'll also take a few extra things for people to bring with them.

Forecast in the area of Kinsman looks OK but gives info for 2300 ft:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.133927821670355&lon=-71.73728942871094
"Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -3. North wind between 5 and 10 mph."

for Cannon near peak (3700):
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.1570240137077&lon=-71.69892311096191

Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -6. Breezy, with a northwest wind between 15 and 23 mph.

(I already decided that I won't take Loki - the dog in my avatar)

 

[weatherman]

I think my decision would depend on whether the people in your group would still have fun with a hike to Lonesome and Kinsman Pond, or whether a different below-treeline hike as a plan B would be better.

That forecast is bone-chilling: a high of -6 really means much of the day will be below that, so any clouds or wind would make it wicked uncomfortable. Full face protection and goggles a must. Carry extra if you have them for those who don't.

If your group is OK with the "Plan A Plan B" (Lonesome/Kinsman Pond and back down if too cold), then seeing how it goes when you get to Lonesome sounds perfectly reasonable. Anyone who is cold while hiking uphill by the time they've hiked 1.6 miles should not go further.

Easy for me to say. Enjoy.

 

[bobandgeri]

I'd take a hard look at who is going and what their experience level is in similar conditions. Perhaps have them all re-RSVP with further information about their past hikes, expectations, and how they would feel about making a group decission on whether to continue at the hut, at the cut off for the shelter, and at N. Kinsman. You shouldn't be afraid to say "no" to anybody you do not feel has the experience or right attitude.

You may want to call out specific clothing that you require everybody to have with them as well.

But only if you are comfortable with the hike yourself! It wil be damm cold, but we've done that hike with temps colder - only made it to North however.

Have fun and be safe.

 

[stu]

Well for what its worth Im also planning on hiking something in Franconia Notch on Sunday. For me the deciding factor will be the wind-speed. If its only around 5-10 mph I will probably attempt Liberty and possibly Flume. I think that when your group reaches LL, it will be obvious who is done for the day. They wont want to go any further. Cheers and good luck, Stu

 

[DougPaul]

I led a college outing club XC ski on a day on which the high was -14F. The group included a fresh Winter School graduate... Like your route, this one was below timberline.

No biggie if the people know what they are doing and are properly equipped. It might be worth keeping an eye on any beginners.

Just went XC skiing last weekend at a starting temp of ~0F. My only problem with it was dissipating heat. (Note: I produce more heat when active than most.)

Doug

 

[mirabela]

I wouldn't go out in the expected conditions with people I don't know well and trust. A lot can go wrong in those temps, even between the trailhead and the hut.

 

[Early Bird]

Hey Pedxing!! I am on that hike and have been meaning to look up your email and comment. Thanks for posting here and making it easy. My concern mirrors yours: the unknown abilities and not just abilities, but my speed and compatibility with the group's. In these conditions it isn't easy to slow down and wait as often happens in a large group. (Are there 10 of us signed up for the 4K?) I hiked the Kinsman's a few years back when it was -3 at the base. On a calm day and with a friend I knew hiked the same as I did, it was a wonderful day. I've been reading the profiles of others who signed up and some are new winter hikers with new gear. I wouldn't want to drive up there to hike to the lake and hut only. I've also done winter Meetups that have gone very well and one that didn't. (I'll PM you on that.)

 

[miehoff]

Tricky Decision

I've hiked in a windy -20 and it was kind of spooky, but since I was so well equipped, it was fine, I just knew if something went wrong, it could go VERY wrong fast.

I say if you are equipped and you sense a good group with a solid attitude, go for it!

And I am sure you will be well aware of the situation by the time you hit Kinsman Pond. Standing at the edge of that pond in brutal winter conditions really gives you a sense of how much you can take...

 

[arm]

the world is over-populated ... can't hurt to thin the herd out a bit ...

 

[pedxing]

Thanks for the feedback, I appreciate it (edit: this was written before I saw Arm's post - not that I don't appreciate it, too, but if does change the context). Lonesome Lake and the pond will be two good opportunities for people to reconsider. There should be enough people that some could turn back at the pond or tree line while others continue to the ridge, should the group be split.

The fact that one group stops at the Lake provides a nice opportunity to have people test out their abilities and for me to see who won't keep up and who isn't prepared (hopefully they will see it first) and have them stick with the other group.

 

[Chip]

Keep in mind, too, that the hut is not heated during the day. While it feels toasty when you first get in, you'll cool off pretty quick, so I'd turn that group back fairly soon, vs having them wait for the 4k'ers to return. I'd plan on splitting into 2 groups with 2 "leaders" in each group, point and sweep (I'd nominate Early Bird as one for the 4k group, if she agrees). Sweep should have a whistle if the group needs to stop or be turned around. You'll separate out the weak pretty quickly on that trail. Traction should be used, which might keep some home. Group dynamics can get tricky. There are also a couple trail intersections on the way up that would be good to point out to the leaders of the slow group. You don't want the returning group heading up to Cannon or south on the Pemi Trail.

 

[Becca M]

Probably too late to chime in, but, I would want to know the group first. Even tho your role is stated as social, you do become the defacto leader. I wouldn't take chances when it's that cold. Fine if everything goes well, but, you have very little margin of error in case of an accident. Why risk it?

 

[pedxing]

Thanks Becca. I did call and talk to almost everyone individually (happily the two I didn't reach were people who I have hiked with in winter conditions before), got a better sense of each person and felt the ones who didn't decide to back out knew what they were in for and what they were doing.

I am thankful for the folks who thought through this with me. I'll post a summary Sunday or Monday.

 

[pedxing]

In the end, the weather was milder than predicted. The trail was pretty well broken out all the way to South Kinsman. Six solid and well prepared hikers joined me (down from 13 at the time I first posted) and a good time was had by all. I was really glad that Early Bird was one of those six!

Thanks for the encouragement and the cautions. The encouragement helped me feel confident about aiming to do the whole trip and the cautions helped me be a bit more assertive in organizing the trip and in discouraging unprepared hikers.

 

[woodstrider]

On leadership

This is so after the fact- but I could not restrain myself from putting in my two cents (and worth only one cent in this economy).

You have to be willing to amend your trip as you go.

Sometimes you turn back sometimes you go for it.

You are not in charge- not of the weather conditions and certainly not of other people. Sometimes I feel as if I am not in charge of myself.

Sometimes I start out with one expectation and the day sorts out sooo differently then I ever imagined it would.

The hope is that I always come back from the mountains (desert, ocean, atc.) and with all my body parts intact. That the mountain will always be there for another trip. That I always return with everyone that I start out with ( one trip I returned with more people- like I said, you never know how it will sort out).

 

[pedxing]

Absolutely - the question is always whether to keep going on from here, it is never whether we will reach destination X down the trail. We checked in at multiple times to discuss how far to go and I made sure people were aware of options at key points (the Hut, the trail to the Pond, the first real openings on the way to North Kinsman and at North). Aiming to the whole trip doesn't mean a commitment to getting there, just that this is the target,

It is always a discussion with everyone involved, but sometimes there are lines to be drawn. A reasonable turn around time to be decided.

At one point at North Peak, one hiker asked if it would be OK to drop her pack at the North Peak and come back for it on return. She got a prompt "no" from the hikers closest to hearing range, who also assured her that her pace was fine and encouraged her to keep going and see how it felt.

 

[weatherman]

Sounds like a great day! Great prep, great learning, safe travels, and the weather made it comfier. What more could you want? Oh yeah, an unfrozen beer waiting at Lonesome Lake on the return.