Potential wind problems on Saturday, 10/31/09

[BIGEarl]

First, I’m no weather man and don’t pretend to be one.

I was just looking around at various weather sites and noticed something that may be a concern for Saturday. The “street level” forecasts aren’t the concern even though they are showing a pretty good breeze for the day. Looking at 3000 feet and above the winds really get serious. The mid-day forecast for winds at ~3000 feet show 50mph and at 6000 feet show 65mph+ out of the southwest. If this actually happens, exposed places will probably be best to avoid. Even lower summits like Monadnock and Cardigan will most likely be difficult.

I may be getting the wrong impression from these forecasts. But if I’m right, pick your targets carefully.

 

[Stash]

Appreciated. I expect to be on the Bonds Saturday but will temper that if conditions dictate. Especially at my size (more of a "Little Stash").

 

[Chugach001]

Hey,

Where do you get wind forecasts?

 

[Stash]

Can somene let me know which way the opening of Guyot shelter faces? Chance of rain and that kind of wind might make it a bit damp in there if it faces south or west.

Thanks!

 

[Waumbek]

N/NW is my recollection.

 

[TDawg]

Can somene let me know which way the opening of Guyot shelter faces? Chance of rain and that kind of wind might make it a bit damp in there if it faces south or west.

Thanks!

Guyot faces pretty much due east. On a nice morning you can catch a sunrise through the trees from the deck.

 

[BIGEarl]

Hey,

Where do you get wind forecasts?

There are multiple threads discussing weather sites. Here's one that has quite a few of the popular sites listed...

http://www.vftt.org/forums/showthread.php?t=17637&highlight=weather

Aviation sites can provide valuable wind information. You'll need to take terrain into account with the forecast.

 

[hikingmaineac]

Guyot faces pretty much due east. On a nice morning you can catch a sunrise through the trees from the deck.

I was thinking East-ish as well due to a sunrise picture I took up there too. (But I can't guarantee that I took it from the actual shelter and not off to the side to avoid trees). Sidenote: it was probably the best solo overnight trip of my life - I had the whole shelter (and virtually the whole Pemi) to myself.

... and about the winds for Saturday. The WM Regional Forecast is calling for "[winds out of the] WSW shifting W 80-100 mph w/ higher gusts"

 

[Waumbek]

"Eye on the Sky," broadcast on VPR, has a mountain recreational forecast usually good for the Western Whites. Scroll down:

http://eotsweb.org/forecasts.php

 

[grouseking]

Excellent -- I'm going to find me some open ridgeline to hike that day. If I travel in the correct direction, it might even improve my hiking speed.

Bring an umbrella, maybe you will fly.

Sounds like a day to stay away from above treeline areas. Though Welch and Dickey might be a lot of fun on a day like that.

 

[RollingRock]

I'm staying at the Cardigan High Cabin tomorrow night. Should be fun being tossed around in the wind on the summit! Just enough to be fun but not dangerous...

 

[weatherman]

My screen name indicates a higher degree of expertise than I actually have, but my own experience comparing the winds aloft forecasts that BIGEarl uses with reality seems to be that they are slight overestimates usually, because they are for open air unimpeded by terrain effects, with the important exception that places that tend to funnel wind (eg Washington and a few other spots in the Northern Presis) are higher, depending on wind direction. So, if they forecast 50 MPH at 3000 feet, Monadnock might be 40 gusting to 55, on average. If you had a 50 foot pole, perhaps 10 MPH higher at the tip, though. That's why the Obs on Mt Washington has its instruments on a tower.

It's also remarkable to me that the highest wind on MWN (the ever-famous 231 mph) was from a southerly direction! That's not the typical way it funnels wind- maybe one of the real mets here could answer that one.

But it'll at least be a warm wind!!! Bring the sails.

Weatherman

 

[MichaelJ]

I'm staying at the Cardigan High Cabin tomorrow night. Should be fun being tossed around in the wind on the summit! Just enough to be fun but not dangerous...

The Cardigan summit is indeed a really fun place to be in strong winds. The concrete block enclosure at the base of the fire tower provides a small lee in which to take cover and enjoy the roar.

I believe I saw winds would be out of the WSW which puts them right into the face of the high cabin?

 

[una_dogger]

Anyone have any thoughts on the Wildcat Ridge??
NOAA pins the winds at much lower and predicting higher winds saturday night in general, while the OBS has the potential for rapidly increasing winds coming at around 2pm on saturday. That's a big disparity that makes planning a challenge.
I'd likely be on the ridge about the time the Obs is predicting strong winds on the Presis -- just wondering what people's thoughts are on that.

 

[smitty77]

-- just wondering what people's thoughts are on that.

I'd lean toward the Obs forecast, especially their higher summits forecast. They're locals and pros. And they're across the street. It would be different if you were trying to gauge the conditions on Mansfield in VT from their forecast.

IIRC once you're past Wildcat D it's mostly in the trees. If anything, I'd bring some safety glasses and watch for wayward branches.

 

[Kevin Rooney]

Anyone have any thoughts on the Wildcat Ridge??
NOAA pins the winds at much lower and predicting higher winds saturday night in general, while the OBS has the potential for rapidly increasing winds coming at around 2pm on saturday. That's a big disparity that makes planning a challenge.
I'd likely be on the ridge about the time the Obs is predicting strong winds on the Presis -- just wondering what people's thoughts are on that.

That will depend somewhat on the wind direction. The prevailing winds in the Presis are from the NW, and the Obs is forecasting "WSW shifting W 80-100 mph w/ higher gusts" as I type this. Since the Wildcat Ridge is east of Washington, and about 2K' lower than Washington, and most importantly, in the trees, my sense is that most of the wind will be blocked.

Several summers ago I did the Wildcat Ridge when the winds on Washington were in the 140mph range, and while it was a bit breezy in places, the ridge walk was quite doable.

 

[una_dogger]

Thanks guys! While I've had this planned for a day or two and wasn't too concerned, the Obs did give me pause when I read it tonight. And in any case, Its always good to soundboard before going out and doing something potentially stupid, especially on VfTT

 

[Dave Bear]

Sabrina, Probably best to go west to east if you were planning A first you'll face the wind all afternoon. I've done a nor'easter that had crap blowing horizontal all the way to the trailhead and we kept on ski goggles all the way down. You can wear eye protection but that's tougher for Terra. Heading east if the wind comes early you'll have some at your back and be in the lee after A. Even if it gets loud keep your ears tuned for cracking timber, might warn you of a blow down coming down. We had one land between us and were lucky. You should be fine just be aware of what's near you. Experiencing a storm or high winds can be as beautiful as a calm sunny day! Have fun!

 

[BIGEarl]

My screen name indicates a higher degree of expertise than I actually have, but my own experience comparing the winds aloft forecasts that BIGEarl uses with reality seems to be that they are slight overestimates usually, because they are for open air unimpeded by terrain effects, with the important exception that places that tend to funnel wind (eg Washington and a few other spots in the Northern Presis) are higher, depending on wind direction. .....

Weatherman

So, you're not a weatherman but do pretend to be one.

Where did I state the sources of the information?

Evidently, you missed my comment "You'll need to take terrain into account with the forecast."

I'd lean toward the Obs forecast, especially their higher summits forecast. They're locals and pros. And they're across the street. It would be different if you were trying to gauge the conditions on Mansfield in VT from their forecast.
….

The following is taken from the Mount Washington Observatory website Frequently Asked Questions.

“16. Does the Observatory prepare forecasts?
Observers monitor and record current weather conditions at the summit, but do not perform official regional forecasting. The weather information that is sent on an hourly basis to the National Weather Service is used by the NWS in regional and national forecasting models. The regional forecast information ("the valley forecast") disseminated by the Observatory is generated by the NWS. Thanks to access to a remarkable amount of weather information via the internet, the Observatory staff does create, each day, a 36 hour outlook for the Mount Washington summit area, which can be used for general guidance for those considering visits to or recreational activities in the Mount Washington area..

17. To whom are the observations transmitted?
The hourly observations conducted on the summit are sent to the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Gray, Maine (near Portland).”



The local pros doing the forecasting are evidently stationed in Gray, Maine.

 

[Pete S]

The following is taken from the Mount Washington Observatory website Frequently Asked Questions.

“16. Does the Observatory prepare forecasts?
Observers monitor and record current weather conditions at the summit, but do not perform official regional forecasting. The weather information that is sent on an hourly basis to the National Weather Service is used by the NWS in regional and national forecasting models. The regional forecast information ("the valley forecast") disseminated by the Observatory is generated by the NWS. Thanks to access to a remarkable amount of weather information via the internet, the Observatory staff does create, each day, a 36 hour outlook for the Mount Washington summit area, which can be used for general guidance for those considering visits to or recreational activities in the Mount Washington area..



The local pros doing the forecasting are evidently stationed in Gray, Maine.

Hello- except for minor technical differences a weather "forecast" and a weather " outlook" can be utilized the exact same way by any end user. Rest assured, the "local pros" issuing the 36 hour higher summits outlook, that appears on the MWO website and is updated twice a day, are on the top of the rockpile. Current conditions and various computer models, modified by human input based on knowledge of how the actual weather in the past has varied from the computer model predictions--- as well as going outside and looking out the window--- help create the Higher Summits " outlook"