Predicting Weather In The Whites

[roadtripper]

OK,

Lately I've been finding that the two main sources of weather forecasts (Noaa.org and Weather.com) have been a little...shall we say...OFF lately for the White Mountains region.

Does anybody have any secrets as to how they predict the weather in the Whites? The "Higher Summits Forecast" is very helpful...does anybody have any of their own little tricks? Are there any sort of weather maps or radar systems people use from various websites to predict cloud cover?

 

[dr_wu002]

In Weather Underground (or NOAA for that matter) read the "Scientific forecaster discussion (NWS)" which is located on the right side, somewhere in the middle. Here's the link. Generally, (in sometimes difficult lingo) the forecasters will discuss any uncertainties in the forcast, give better idea of long term forecast (and uncertainties), and also give more up-to-the-minute details.

-Dr. Wu

 

[Gris]

me thinks Artex knows the answer to this one...

 

[Brownie]

Mt Washington Observations are well worth a visit to see the daily comments and then click on over to the forecast for summits.
Finally the Higher Summits forecast can give a clue.

Mountain weather is always quite a bit different from the standard NOAA valley/town forecasts, and this is where your own experience must play a crucial role, or get with a climbing weather wiz who is.

Brownie

 

[Mattl]

You have to just understand the whites. Winter is always especially different then anywhere else. They get way more snow and its almost always colder. So if noaa forecasts 6-12 inches for northern grafton and carroll counties say 12-15 or so. The mountains really need there own forecast for the week. Noaa has a day to day forecast for the mountains, but it is terrible. Just look at doppler. -Matt

 

[RGF1]

I use a number of things the Mt Washington Observatries site, NOA, Intellicast has a fairly good site use the National map and look at the Surface analysis. to see where weather fronts are and where they are going . Even catching a forecast on television. NH's Channel 9 , might be some what more accurate.
If the atmopsphere is going to be unstable over the NE more than likely the weater will not be very good in the Whites.
In fct this week isa good example even though it is pleasnt in souther new England there is a upper level low pressure system over Nova Scotia that is creating the squalls in the Whites. due to orographic lifting.
After a cold front passes you can expect it to be windy the next day. and stromy while it passes.
DR WU mentioned the Weather undergroumd I use that site alot. once you larn the trem and how to navigate the site.
While you are hiking you can start to learn on your own . You can buy books on metorology . One very good piece of knowledge is differnt cloud types and formations they can tell you alot. Wind direction is usaully helpful also.
Of course if it is going ot be miserable south of the Whites and bad weather is predicted it will be even worse in the mountains.

Weather forcast are usaully accurate about 36 hours in advace . sometimes less.
On some sites a Water or moistuer vapor image is availble it shows how much moisture is being evaporated . Some will state the ceileng that is the bottom of the clouds elevation.
There is of course a whole lot more.
Take some time reading NOA's site and the MT Washington Obs site. you will learn a good amount at both

 

[weatherman]

It's always a little different...

I, too, get frustrated but use all of the above links to get an idea, especially the NWS area forecast discussion from Gray, ME:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php?product=PWMAFDGYX&versions=10

Here's another site I like, that is a bit more germane for VT but if you catch it right (or can get a VPR station with even more commentary) you can get some great reasoning behind the forecast:
http://www.fairbanksmuseum.org/eye_detailed.cfm

But in general, be prepared for weather systems in the Whites to arrive earlier, stay later, crank out more precipitation, and just generally be grumpier than the surrounding area. That's why I always pack too heavy and have gotten used to thunderstorms.

Weatherman

 

[sardog1]

Having lived for substantial periods in AK, MN, WA, and now NH, I can tell you that White Mountains weather is easily the most variable among all those places. If you looked at a map of storm tracks across North America, you'd see that they converge smack on top of the Whites. Throw in the chance for maritime, continental, and subtropical influences (sometimes all in the same day!), and you guarantee full employment for meteorologists trying to figure it all out.

Laminated cloud charts are available from Cloud Chart, Inc.. They're worth studying while you're in the field watching and living through the changes. Another source you might want to look at is A Climate Primer for New England , which is part of New England's Changing Climate, Weather and Air Quality published by the Climate Change Research Center at UNH.

 

[DougPaul]

A good general guide to mountain weather can be found at http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/classroom_practical_mountain.php. It is being doled out a chaper at a time--if you wish to look ahead, try http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/classroom/mountain_weather/. There are sections aimed at specific areas, including the Whites.

Doug