Private Campgrounds can be open in NH

[DayTrip]

Was discussing with my 17 year old today and his thought is that all trailheads are busy. As members on VFTT tend to be more aware of more remote places, we should be able to adjust. The most crowded summits and trails on Saturdays will be almost like being in a crowded bar or restaurant. .

When the "woods" get opened up again I'm sure the 4k's/popular stuff will be packed. Crowds were already bad as it is and with all the pent up demand I can see it being even more insane. I personally will be looking to the more secluded parts of NH when I return.

 

[JoshandBaron]

I updated it to add a tab for MA, as well as a combined plot. The trend for MA is not a strong, but still linear. Suffolk County is quite an outlier as it's an order of magnitude more dense, but with a lower than expected confirmed infection rate given the extra density, but that could be due to limited tested.

Anecdotally, Boston residents seem to be taking things more seriously than the suburbs as far as distancing goes. They also have better access to infrastructure to support distancing.

 

[Mike P.]

When the "woods" get opened up again I'm sure the 4k's/popular stuff will be packed. Crowds were already bad as it is and with all the pent up demand I can see it being even more insane. I personally will be looking to the more secluded parts of NH when I return.

but not all the trailheads, Some of the more intrepid VFTT'ers, if they needed Washington, I could see coming up the GG or bushwhacking via Raymond Cataract. I'd list others, but there's no need to publish anyone's off the beaten path to...…. In the ADK the Facebook Groups and Meet Up Groups will most likely only approach Marcy from the HPIC/Loj

I used to like looking at AMC Outdoors for where the Chapters used to go hiking and then plan around it. This might be my best reason to get on FB, join some NH and ADK groups and plan on avoiding them.

 

[skiguy]

I try to be explicit with the assumptions, but they are a critical part of a model. It's important to note that assumptions in a model are of the 'if this is true' type, vs the common type of assumptions people make, assuming something is true. The assumptions in a model are inherently flexible and require tuning. The assumptions people make are often associated with beliefs, which tend to have dependencies and thus are more difficult to change. A statistical model doesn't freak out when you radically change its core assumptions. Although, maybe an advanced AI would resist.

Re-Quoted from astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson
"...There is a danger in knowing enough about a subject to think you are right and not knowing enough to know that you are wrong..."

 

[peakbagger]

The methods of avoiding crowds in the whites are pretty well known. They don't just fit people lifestyles which have changed. Doing the 4ks as day hikes is a fairly recent phenomena, prior to the Franconia parkway, many of the 4Ks were done as overnights where the hiker drove up and stayed local overnight. The 1/4 mile rule for the vast majority of the trails got passed as folks would drive up the night before and camp literally right next to their car or just in the woods. Keep a close look at many older trails to the 4ks and its real obvious that immediately after the 1/4 mile RUA sign there would be extensive signs of camping. Folks would drive up on Friday night and walk in with flashlights and set up camp. They would then get an early start in the AM and go grab a peak and possibly drive home. When I was first working on the 4Ks the Bonds were almost always an overnight. The former weekly tourist paper in North Conway had a series of articles about dayhiking the 4Ks and at the time it was fairly radical to actual do the Bond, Owl Isolation in a day let alone driving up from Boston in the AM and returning that night. What I am seeing during this boom is a lot more dayhikers driving up in the AM, getting a relatively late start and clogging the parking lots. I remember my first time I did the Owl via the trails that I got an early start. I was passing folks tenting along Lincoln Brook trail that were just breaking camp when I walked by, they were amazed that I was dayhiking the route. I remember doing Giant in NY one year during a VFTT event. I got going early and the trail and parking was nearly empty. I got near the top and there was a ranger sitting there enjoying the view. I commented that I was surprised the trail were not busy. He rolled his eyes and told me to wait for the Canadians as they all start roughly the same time of the day. I thought he was joking until when coming down I met a steady conga line of folks heading up. When I got down to the parking lot it was full with cars in half mile in either direction parked where they could.

Many of the VFTT folks in the past had their favorite places to camp for the weekend. There was a good sized contingent of VFTT folks at seasonal campgrounds in the Twin Mountain area who spent the weekend and others had their other favorite weekend spot. Some had older campers they paid seasonal rental to leave at the campground and some eventually graduated to buying a camp or older home. In order to avoid the crowds on even the crowded 4ks I hit the trailhead early and usually have plenty of room to park. Yes I do pass people on the way down but I really think my exposure is low passing someone going in the opposite direction on a trail when I step aside. One of the general rules of thumb is most people like to plan their arrival at summit from 11Am to 1 PM to eat lunch. Plan on arriving before the popular window and its normal to see few folks.

If folks get off the list mentality, the woods suddenly get a lot less crowded. Head up to Evan Notch on Friday night, grab a tentsite and there are numerous trailheads that may have no cars. The Caribou Speckled Mtn Wilderness and even the Wild River Wilderness both get little use while having a dense trail network. Just plan on upping your navigational skills as many of the trails are not heavily used.

 

[bikehikeskifish]

Anecdotally, Boston residents seem to be taking things more seriously than the suburbs as far as distancing goes. They also have better access to infrastructure to support distancing.

Can you elaborate (on both parts)? I'm curious...

Tim

 

[skiguy]

If you have any feedback or questions on the methodology, please speak up!

Touche! I believe I’ve already commented on that. Not questioning any or assigning expertise on anyone’s part. Just that ......commenting. Nothing more. It’s just a hiking board. No one here is an expert in viral warfare. Now to go watch the “Omega Man”.

 

[sierra]

I climbed Mt. Roberts Monday. There were two cars in the lot when I arrived at Noon time, so I figured it was a good choice. I ended up running into about 12 people on my ascent, there was a large group of about 7, ( they must have come from another trailhead). I got off the trail and let all pass, keeping 10 ft. at least of distance. The other lots on the grounds had many more cars and none of them would have been ok for me to park. I'm moving on from busy lots and trails without hesitation. As far as the hike itself? what an enjoyable climb, the terrain and views of the surrounding lakes and mountains were very nice. The upper half of the trail is a lot of open ledges. Coincidently, Monday made one month, since I quit smoking. My trail times are already improving as is my energy level, this summer is going to be great.

 

[peakbagger]

Always a great time to quit smoking but deserving of sadly non existent dancing bananas emoticon

 

[DayTrip]

Re-Quoted from astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson
"...There is a danger in knowing enough about a subject to think you are right and not knowing enough to know that you are wrong..."

I think that is a derivative of a Mark Twain quote: “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” (And it's a good point too).

 

[DayTrip]

but not all the trailheads, Some of the more intrepid VFTT'ers,

I realize that. I've done all the trail approaches to all the 4ks and other peaks, and many other non-summit trails and certainly could avoid crowds on the popular peaks if I wanted to. There are very few places in the Whites I haven't gone that I actually want to go to. But there aren't many trail heads that have escaped detection nowadays, even with the early starts I generally get. My point was that I won't be rushing back to any of those places soon. Just being in the general area of the mountains will be welcome relief. I don't "need" any peaks.

 

[ChrisB]

I think that is a derivative of a Mark Twain quote: “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” (And it's a good point too).

Or as that other infamous "Donald" once observed...

... there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; things we know we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—things we don't know we don't know. It's is the latter category that tend to be the difficult.

As we look to 1918 for a model of return to normalcy, I wonder how our close-coupled systems in the era of globalism will affect our recovery.

 

[Grey J]

I climbed Mt. Roberts Monday. There were two cars in the lot when I arrived at Noon time, so I figured it was a good choice. I ended up running into about 12 people on my ascent, there was a large group of about 7, ( they must have come from another trailhead). I got off the trail and let all pass, keeping 10 ft. at least of distance. The other lots on the grounds had many more cars and none of them would have been ok for me to park. I'm moving on from busy lots and trails without hesitation. As far as the hike itself? what an enjoyable climb, the terrain and views of the surrounding lakes and mountains were very nice. The upper half of the trail is a lot of open ledges. Coincidently, Monday made one month, since I quit smoking. My trail times are already improving as is my energy level, this summer is going to be great.

Congratulations. Since we are doing quotes, here's a variation on the one about planting a tree. "When is the best time to quit smoking? 20 years ago. When is the next best time? Today!"

 

[JoshandBaron]

Can you elaborate (on both parts)? I'm curious...

Tim

I work in Boston and live in Ipswich. I see very few people on the streets in Boston. The few people that are out are making a concerted effort to keep their distance and are wearing masks. There are more delivery options and everyone seems to be taking full advantage of that. The cars parked in resident spots haven't moved in weeks. The vast majority of traffic is trucks and delivery services.

Meanwhile, back at home, it's a different story. There are more cars on the road. There are more people out and about on foot. We had a gas main break yesterday and police officers were leaning into vehicles to give instructions while neglecting to wear masks. The townies all think the response is an overreaction and aren't doing their part. Neighbors are having gatherings. The one time I went into the grocery store everyone was ignoring the one-way aisles and crowding people. Same story at the packie.

 

[ChrisB]

I work in Boston and live in Ipswich. I see very few people on the streets in Boston. The few people that are out are making a concerted effort to keep their distance and are wearing masks.

Meanwhile, back at home, it's a different story. There are more cars on the road.

I wonder if it's related to leadership. Boston Mayor Marty Walsh has been visible and vocal about observing restrictions in Boston.

Not sure how Ipswich is organized, but lacking a figurehead who puts him/herself out there to serve as a leader, people will do what they want.

 

[Mike P.]

I wonder if it's related to leadership. Boston Mayor Marty Walsh has been visible and vocal about observing restrictions in Boston.

Not sure how Ipswich is organized, but lacking a figurehead who puts him/herself out there to serve as a leader, people will do what they want.

Maybe leadership, our First Selectman has been vocal, however, I think it's more from Gov. Lamont and Gov. Cuomo's daily presser's that have many, not all, following the guidelines. I've only been in the Supermarket, Walmart, CVS and Dollar Store since this started. I wouldn't be surprised if Package Store procedures are followed less strictly. I also found that the Wal-mart was not as good either. I've not been to Wal-Mart since CT's mandatory mask order. With someone at the front door, it may have improved. People certainly shouldn't be leaning in cars, masks or not.

 

[TCD]

And yet there's this, right in Boston:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04...ples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/

Small study, but interesting.

 

[Mike P.]

And yet there's this, right in Boston:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04...ples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/

Small study, but interesting.

As they just found out in CA, the first fatality pre-dates the Virus being discovered in the WA nursing home. Until we know what we were testing for, there very well could have been people exposed going through airports and mass transit for the holidays. How many earlier flu deaths may have been Covid-19 deaths? As we test for it, we may find millions of people were exposed and a large segment of the population suffered no more than cold like or allergy symptoms or digestive issues.

 

[hikerbrian]

Sheer luck that I managed to avoid infection (as far as I know), given what we now know about the timeline of the pandemic's spread in the US. I was on (crowded) public transportation in Boston straight through 3/10. I stopped going into the office well before it was mandated, but the coughing, hacking, people sweating profusely with the heads in their hands while I was two seats away... Luck.

I'm not overly fond of the current situation, but one can't argue it's uninteresting. If/when we can make it through the danger and concurrent fear, understanding the course this pandemic will have taken will be quite fascinating. My singular hope is that the US, as in the great wars, will stand toe to toe with the adversary (SARS-CoV-2), and the outcome will appear uncertain, but over time our ability to innovate and to muster vast resources will prevail. Time. Time is the thing we need. Time is our great ally. Quality leadership wouldn't hurt. [/soapbox]

What I'd love to know is, Who is getting the virus RIGHT NOW? MA still has 1500 new cases/day. Who are these people? Essential workers? Healthcare workers? Family of previously infected individuals? What is the correlation between stringency of social distancing and probability of infection?

My feeling is it's quite easy to social distance while camping. People need to be vigilant and focused, but considering the net benefits, this one seems pretty good. From my perspective traveling from MA: may need to stop for gas once. Wear a mask, use left hand for keypad and gas pump, right hand stays 'clean,' hand sanitizer before getting back in car. At campground, it's easy to stay >20' from anyone the entire time. Unless someone else is determined to invade your social space, it's easy. Hike where people aren't, get way off trail to let people pass if necessary. Bring all needed food from home. Campground fees are a small component of NH tourist economy, but they're something, and I expect that something is pretty important to campground owners.

I haven't left my yard in >6 weeks for anything except gas for my tractor, pallets for my firewood, and runs in the pouring rain, when no one else is out. None of those required contact closer than 10'. This is not indefinitely sustainable, so I think it makes sense to consider which components of the economy can be opened with maximum benefit:risk ratio.

 

[peakbagger]

Speculation on my part is most campgrounds have gone to the long term camper model where the majority of the campsites are rented out for the season. Yes they may have transient sites at the fringes of the campground but the prime spots and revenue is in their pocket prior to the start of the season. If there is a reasonable expectation that a seasonal camper is not going to have access to a site, then many will elect not to lease a site or at a minimum will seek some sort of cost break. Thus the effort to get the campgrounds open.