Sad anniversary coming up thsi weekend, Kate Matrosova

[peakbagger]

While replying to another thread I realized that we are coming up on Kate Matrosova's sad anniversary on the 15th and the forecast is shaping up to match the one in place last year. The lack of significant snow on the trails in combination with recent above average temps is most likely going to lead folks to plan aggressive hikes during the long holiday weekend. Currently the forecast for Saturday is front coming through on Saturday with Sunday bright and clear but very cold. I haven't seen a wind forecast but start with a forecast 6 degrees F down low with most likely in the minus teens at the summits and add in any wind and a lot of folks will get in over their head. The standard approach is make plans and reservations to drive up and hope the forecast is wrong, then get up here and decide to try the hike with the assumption that they can always turn around. Add in some hypothermia impacting clear thinking, and it makes a fatal combination.

I expect the SAR folks and F&G are probably already checking their gear and hoping they wont need to use it as presidents day week is usually a time of lot of S&R activity.

 

[sierra]

I plan on being out on Sunday myself, although it will be an easy 4k. I'm on one of the longest hiking breaks I've ever taken. Nursing not one, but two injury's and decided to just heal and not take any chances on making them worse. Being in your 50's makes you look at the long haul. I will have to leave my dog behind which sucks, but those wind chills exceed my safety zone for my dog. On a good note, maybe I can field test my new Parka, which I bought before this winter, poor thing has been living in my basement hanging in the workshop. The forecast is calling for good visibility, not really a mirror of the conditions Kate endured.

 

[JCarter]

I too am taking it easy due to injury, but thinking about last year. I was on Cannon from Lonesome Lake that day. Hoping for an event-free weekend.

 

[egilbe]

I plan on hiking in Evans Notch this weekend, Saturday and Monday. I'll happily look at Mt Washington from the Summit of West Royce.

 

[skiguy]

Great weekend to check out a New -40 bag without totally sweating cahoonas.

 

[1SlowHiker]

A tragic event for a remarkable person. Maybe at least it will make others realize how bad things can get in the whites. For me I'll be snowshoeing in R.I. (3-5 mile near level trails close to home). I'm really a fair weather hiker (relative to most on this site) and will not attempt a hike with highs forecast at or below zero. Looking back, I just realized that since I started hiking in 2011, I've only done two winter hikes in February, Moriah & Madison in 2013 and hale in 2015. Guesss I'll never be a Gridder . I did start on Moriah at -5 degrees once, but as forecast, it warmed up to 25F that day

Be careful out there.

 

[CaptCaper]

Years ago I talked with a "ole" woman at AMC in Pinkham..when asked what kills them on Mt Washinton she said "it's not just one thing it's a few things or so" One thing leads to another...
I can see clearly in her case how and why she died..... It's all about %. Like this weekend we just shake our heads knowing someone will need rescue probably.. Looking back at the Ranger for one example from Mt. Monadnock who perished. I knew the friend and fellow Ranger who took him to the trialhead that trip. They pick a weekend long in advance to do something. Plan and Plan and spend time and money to travel etc. And I believe they get blind to the % of weather change. But the weather is calling for a different version of the weekend which is the biggest factor in these deaths. Being a master Captain I studied weather and the only time you can predict it is about 1/2 hr before. Each time these deaths occur I saw that there was a chance of weather hazzards... I was out in Zion last fall when a group died...they took the low % of flash flood and gambled..they lost.. I wouldn't go unless there was no %. But they planned and went... to their end. Happens every where is seems.

 

[DayTrip]

Were there any other incidents this weekend? Unless they have yet to trickle in I don't recall seeing anything. Maybe last year's incident was fresh in a lot of people's minds and they opted to do safer hikes or stay out of the woods.

 

[peakbagger]

With the exception of the heart attack fatality on Lafayette things were quiet. There has been minimal news on this, arguably hiking in extreme weather conditions is more stressful than non extreme but one will never know.

In general I think the conditions were better publicized and the weather was actually less extreme than predicted on Saturday with the really nasty stuff holding off until later in the day. I did note that parking lots along RT2 on Saturday were quite empty which for a 3 day weekend is extremely rare

 

[CaptCaper]

Even down 302 was quite...Arthusa,Mt Tom,etc. We did Willard yesterday knowing it was going to warm up vs deep dive. Sunday went to N.Conway..LL had a huge sale..found some great deals.. lot's of left over winter clothing that didn't sell this year.