Summer Rain pattern ending!

[bobandgeri]

Today was a perfect day in the Whites - blue skies - white puffy clouds - little wind. Hope we have more like it coming soon! We hike Eisenhower and Pierce and have slight sun burns - very welcome after all the rain. The trails are still very very wet though - probably for some time to come.

 

[Waumbek]

I am trying to learn the difference between reality and the forecast here. .... The forecast has at least a 30% chance, plus with water levels being what they are, and having to cross the Little River, there is reasonable cause for inquiry
Tim

Here's my take on the % thing:

30% chance or less: don't worry about it.
30-60% chance: maybe.
70-100% chance: yup, usually.

 

[rocket21]

Boy is this forecast starting to fall apart again...rain/thunderstorms creeping into the forecast today-Saturday, Sunday now 'partly cloudy' (last Tuesday was also supposed to be 'partly cloudy' and instead it POURED). Arg. Just two days ago MWO had some form of sunny for every day starting Wednesday in their forecast - oh how things change.

 

[Mattl]

By the way Bikehike, that storm in Vermont last night died about 10 miles from the CT River . OK so there is one more low to contend with. This one popped up actually out of nowhere yesterday on the models. And I know what some of you might be saying "this one popped up, then another and another", the truth is that the pattern is changing, for the drier, but I can't promice 100% dry all the time. Just not an onslaught on rain everyday like we had. It will rain Friday afternoon and Friday night, the second half of Sat and Sunday look nice this weekend, and below average temperatures. Here is a quote from our nation weather service, as of this morning, a day after I created this post. "AS TROUGH EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...THE STAGE IS SET FOR A
PATTERN CHANGE (FINALLY). DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL STREAK INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER CANADA.
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
Oh and next week looks more seasonable with warm temperatures and just a pop up shower or storm 20-30%. Have a good week hiking, I know I am getting out there . -Mattl

 

[skiguy]

Oh and next week looks more seasonable with warm temperatures and just a pop up shower or storm 20-30%. Have a good week hiking, I know I am getting out there . -Mattl

Good thing...I think your chances of getting pig piled on the trail have gone down then....maybe 20-30 %. In all serious Mattl I think we all enjoy your input and all of your heads up notices.

bikehikeskifish...I think you need to move closer to the Mountains and that will solve all your forcasting problems.

 

[dentonfabrics]

For the past few years, we didnt seem to have a spring. It went right from blizzards to 80o. This year, it seems as if we're not having a summer. Cold, damp, miserable so much of the time. Time for a change of seasons says I.

 

[rocket21]

So basically for the last week or so, up to and including yesterday, the forecast for today was supposed to be sunny and nice. Yet, all of a sudden this morning it's calling for fog/clouds/thunderstorms. Give me a break already!

 

[islandside]

Less predictable weather

From what I have seen, the jet stream has shifted to the east almost 1000 miles. Instead of dipping low by New Mexico and Arizona, it has been making a dip down by the Gulf of Mexico and drawing up all that tropical moisture.
The weathermen's computer models are not working because the jet stream is not in a normal pattern.
They are trying to do their best, but the patterns are all different so as their predictions get closer, they have to adjust.
If this pattern stays like this, we may have lot's of snow again this winter, but the weathermen are going to have a difficult time predicting until their computer models have more consistent data to draw from.

 

[Dr. Dasypodidae]

For the past few years, we didnt seem to have a spring. It went right from blizzards to 80o. This year, it seems as if we're not having a summer. Cold, damp, miserable so much of the time. Time for a change of seasons says I.

We call our spring "mud season."

And this year, our summer has become a prolonged "mud season."

But, there is already a thread noting the beginning of autumn foliage colors, so I predict that as night-time temperatures begin to cool, we will begin to see a little more atmospheric stability (although cool nights = radiation fog in the early morning).

 

[bikehikeskifish]

So basically for the last week or so, up to and including yesterday, the forecast for today was supposed to be sunny and nice. Yet, all of a sudden this morning it's calling for fog/clouds/thunderstorms. Give me a break already!

I noticed the same but my utterance was far less appropriate for public consumption. As it turned out I didn't get rained on one drop and the summits (Twins) were not in the clouds, so I guess it was as good as one can expect this year.

Tim

 

[eddie]

In Lincoln, NH this morning...

...look out the window this morning - one more round of rain before a beautiful stretch of weather!

 

[rocket21]

Okay, seriously, this is getting old. Yestereday was supposed to be mostly sunny, but instead it rained for a good part of the morning and had some significant clouds in certain parts of the Whites for most of the day.

Today looks good.

MWO's discussion says sunny to mostly sunny Wednesday through Saturday in the discussion section, yet it shows mostly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms Thursday-Sunday in the actual forecast section.

Come on!

 

[Mattl]

I promise it will not rain Wednesday through Saturday anywhere in NH! Beautiful weather coming. -Mattl

 

[bikehikeskifish]

I promise it will not rain Wednesday through Saturday anywhere in NH! Beautiful weather coming. -Mattl

What time on Saturday?

Tim