The economy of the mountains

[dentonfabrics]

I was interested in hearing that Lyons Hospitality in Twin Mtn is for sale, and saddened by reading Nutsosa's comment on the economic decline of that area in another thread. I wonder what the current economic health for the mountain region and the north country in general is?

I'm up there hiking or biking or paddling every week and whenever I'm there (usually weekdays) the Lincoln or Conway area seems to be thriving, at least during the summer months. But the smaller, less gentrified areas like Twin Mtn seem to be run down to some degree. (Heck, the entire town of Berlin is burning to the ground.) The touristy part of the mountains appear to be in good shape but if you look closely at home prices and other indicators, the residential sector of the economy doesnt seem to be holding up. And how do people make a living up there? Where are the jobs? I've been toying with the idea of buying property up north - way up north, Pittsburg or Errol - but it just doesnt seem to be an area that I want to invest in at this time.

I wonder what's in the economic future for the Whites and the north country? If they're right about climate change, that could make this area even more impoverished.

If the Whites were a stock on the big board, would you say BUY, SELL, or HOLD?


bob

 

[SkierSteve]

I think there are at least a couple of critical things going on here. First, the cost of doing business has skyrocketed over the last few years. Utilities and fuel, insurance, taxes, etc. have really eaten up any profits marginal businesses had. This leads to deferred maintenance and improvements and the slow decay of areas like Twin Mountain. And in many areas, because of the intense competition, raising prices to cover cost increases has simply not been an option.
Also, the reality of todays tourist industry is it is dominated by family travel. Of course there are small segments of the year like leaf peeping which is primarily an older adult segment. Towns like N.Conway, Lincoln, Stowe, can keep Mom, Dad and the kids happy and interested with indoor or outdoor activities. If you can't attract families in both the summer and winter, any north country hospitality business is going to have an extremely tough row to hoe.
Investing in north country real estate with an eye toward appreciation is all about location, timing and doing your homework. Demand drives appreciation, if you can find what you believe is a good value, and its within a reasonable distance of Boston,(approximately 3 hours), with year round activities, it may be worth taking a closer look. Just my 2c.

 

[Fisher Cat]

This is a tough question and after growing up and having my first jobs as a teenager in northern NH it seems like the area is always on hold. Having 2 or 3 jobs at once is not uncommon. My brother is there and has been in his own construction business in Gorham over 20 years. Business has declined especially after the mills shut down, but he still has loyal clientel.For those with deep roots in northern NH a living can be had. With the promise of a federal prison providing jobs in Berlin, who knows? Any area based on tourism will always live on eggshells. Someone sees promise though. Stores like Wal-Mart, Shaw's, even Lowes in the area mean more, like Applebee's and the like will follow.
However, if its one kind of tourism northern NH is, its multi-generational. Parents bring their kids, who in turn and time will bring their own, and so on.They will come back no matter what. Some tourists will come up for the first time, get rained on while they try to ski in February and never come back. Some hotels (ie. our Grande Dame, the MT W Hotel)will try package tours and deals. Will they work? Who knows? The Whites are pretty tourist friendly. Guidebooks and trails abound and the average person, even if they have never hiked much may reason they don't need an itinerary, they can do it themselves. The privately owned hotels and motels (like Lyons) suffer the most. Two or 3 bad weather seasons, especially winter, will ruin them as they do not have the resources to ride it out. VT has the same problem.Now that even places like the Grande Dame are owned by out-of-staters they at least have the money to fall back on in tough times.
Real estate is a tough call. One landowner out of Maine purchased a large tract of land on Mt. Florist in Berlin and stripped it in the hopes of selling the land advertising it as suitable for a health spa. What?! The locals are livid. Mt. Florist is loved by them and to think something could be built there that likely none of them can afford is ridiculous. Some locals have begun damaging the fellows property and equipment left on site. I know I cringed when someone from out of state began gobbling huge tracts of land. But possibly, that is the future.
Then there are people who will move in no matter what. People like, perhaps you and me. I don't care what the job is, its still home, and someday I'm going back. I'll let the rest sort itself out.

 

[bikehikeskifish]

The 'problem' exists further south too, although not at the same level. Every day, Mass exodus occurs (pun intended) as commuters flock to jobs in Taxachusetts. It took me two years, after my current employer moved there, to find a job back in NH and relatively close to home. I start end of August.

My wife's mom and sister live in Bath, NH. They have a Christmas tree farm, are foresters, septic designers, and surveyors. They barter a lot -- exchanging land, or bulldozer services, or whatever, for their services. You make the lifestyle choice of living in the north country and then you figure out how to scrape together a living.

Tim

 

[marty]

The 'problem' exists further south too, although not at the same level. Every day, Mass exodus occurs (pun intended) as commuters flock to jobs in Taxachusetts. Tim

The problem with Massachusetts' exodus extends far beyond the Northeast. People are currently moving out of some New England states in rapid numbers, as the cost of living, climate and some quality of life factors favor the Sun Belt and other areas of the country. Companies will relocate from New England to where the labor supply is, particularly if the labor is cheaper and if they are offered tax incentive by state and local governments.

The exodus that we are seeing will likely effect the North Country, too. If there are less people in the Northeast in general, then it would seem logical that there will be less people traveling to the North Country.

Sad but probably true.

Marty

 

[arghman]

I've been toying with the idea of buying property up north - way up north, Pittsburg or Errol - but it just doesnt seem to be an area that I want to invest in at this time.

Investing in north country real estate with an eye toward appreciation is all about location, timing and doing your homework.

present company excluded, but IMHO this is part of the problem. When there is real estate speculation, it drives the prices up & then it's less possible for the locals to afford to stay while trying to make a living the traditional ways (whether through "old" economies like logging / the paper mills, or opportunistic/seasonal/part-time labor). These are communities, not just towns, and if the population changes from long-time residents to newer people, many of whom don't care about community, don't try to fit in to the rural character of the community & just want their piece of the pie, then that sense of community will be eroded. We're definitely seeing that in Southern NH; lots of MA commuters & you almost always see them on the "take" side vs. the "give" side of community involvement (they tend to show up at public hearings only when something affects them in a negative way, and come to parades / baseball games etc. to be a spectator or if their kids are involved).

I guess if you're buying a 2nd home in the North Country, it's welcomed more often (as you will definitely be paying more than your fair share of taxes & won't get a vote in local issues) -- but even then, it's tended to eat up land in the North Country. Pittsburg has changed a lot in 10 years, maybe not relative to Manchester or Concord or even Twin Mountain, but it just doesn't feel as wild and undisturbed as it used to be.

 

[Waumbek]

The old '50s-motel Twin Mountain on the strip is clearly dwindling. Presidential View Cabins are gone, Lyons' and Shakespeare's are for sale. I hope Foster's survives.

More discretely and set way back out of sight of the motel strip, the new Twin Mountain is taking shape: $.5M large parcel lots (minus houses) in covenanted developments like Ledgewood Estates.

Like all development, there are good and bad aspects although the Ledgestone Corp. seems over-eager to promote its conservation ethic, so I have to wonder whether it's for real or just a slick marketing technique to make the non-local buyers feel good about putting up their Taj Majals in the woods.

 

[forestgnome]

Local and regional economies are dynamic, not static. This is a good thing. Businesses come and go, but the beat goes on. Those who look ahead are destined to thrive.

The beauty of the White Mountain region depends on the myth of a poor economy.

 

[Fisher Cat]

In line with forestgnomes comments,does anyone remember the time when a proposal floated about for the WMNF to become a National Park instead of just a National Forest? The idea was bitterly denied by locals as for the fears of what increased crowds and traffic would do to the area. The fact that, as previously mentioned by forestgnome, the perception of a slow economy may continue to protect what we love about the area.

 

[psmart]

does anyone remember the time when a proposal floated about for the WMNF to become a National Park instead of just a National Forest?

The Sierra Club ran this article in 1999 concerning the park proposal. That seems about right. It was during the early phases of the Forest Plan revision.

 

[RoySwkr]

I have a friend from MA who just bought a retirement home in West Milan, at a price far below what a similar place in MA would cost. He will be living off pension and purchasing local services so should help the economy temporarily but will do nothing for the long-term future of the area. His investment is in himself.

I read once that singles an even couples tended to find the North Country unfriendly and move after a couple years, but that having kids in the school would tie you to the community. I'll see how it works with him before I buy.

The good jobs in the area used to be in the mills, but with Berlin gone, Groveton going and Gorham cut back there's not much left. Tree felling used to be done mostly by Canadian workers but with increased mechanization there are more Americans doing it. Tourism may provide good money at the top but most of the jobs are menial and often filled by foreigners on special visas. The state prison and coming Federal prison in Berlin provide steady jobs with good benefits but I was warned those come at a cost - family members of prisoners may move up and go on welfare, halfway house residents may increase the crime rate, etc.

 

[Fisher Cat]

Thanks for the reference psmart. Its interesting that despite the possible jobs and benefits that could come from that area being a National Park, it wasn't worth the tradeoff to locals. Not too long after that came the news of the financial crisis and the imminent sale of and eventual closure of the Berlin mills. Yet no one regretted the National Park issue, it still wasn't worth losing the privacy and beauty that is held dear.
The first time I took my cousins husband to the Whites (he's from Pennsylania)and took him hiking his first reaction was" I have to move here" That's a common reaction. People say the same when they visit CO, WY, Hawai'i and places of the like. However, reality sets in for them when they investigate the employment situations. Yes, homes are cheaper, but so are the wages. One has to think of the sacrifices. I would be glad to get back into the customer service/tourism business for the area because I take great pride in the area and there are possibilities there If one can find a tourism based opportunity it can work.
One time our family stayed at the MT W just for the history.(years ago my dad was one of the accountants there and when he took us to work for the day during the summer, ah, the stories)One time we were approached by an out-of-stater who asked when we don't eat at the Hotel where do we go. I mentioned the Pizza Pub in Twin and the like. He then derided every local eating establishment of the area, promoting retaurants down state and how much better they were. This got me upset, I went to school with one of the son of the owners of the Pizza Pub. I didn't go there just for the food. I went there because they were friends. This may be what also protects the area. If you want fancy food and dining and entertainment, your choices are limited. And pricey. So the residents(and businesses) it attracts are a certain breed.People who live and move there stay and go for the right reasons.
Long live NH and what it stands for. May it only get better.

 

[arghman]

The beauty of the White Mountain region depends on the myth of a poor economy.

Clever ... and would that it be so simple. You'd have state senators/reps/executive councilors & the governor stepping in and trying to assist things to improve the economy... which is basically what they're doing already.

Local and regional economies are dynamic, not static. This is a good thing. Businesses come and go, but the beat goes on. Those who look ahead are destined to thrive.

I agree in principle, but I just don't see a new equilibrium happening.

I can see some disturbing parallels between the latest developments in the North Country and the ecology of invasive plant species. Nothing inherently evil with, say, Japanese knotweed and garlic mustard. They can outcompete the native plants which are much slower to adapt to local disturbances, and without intervention or a wipe-the-slate-clean disturbance like fires and floods, they change the landscape essentially forever; the diversity of plant and animal species usually tends to decrease as a result. I don't see much difference between that, and what happens when marketed development comes to rural areas. Maybe that's an extreme view, but that's my 2c.

 

[peakbagger]

I cant comment much on Twin Mountain beyond that it has been deteriorating for several years. Several of the remaining businesses had bet on winter snowmobiling to help them out, but the last two winters have been real bad for snow.

As for the Berlin Gorham Milan Randolph Shelburne area, the loss of over 1250 full time well paying jobs over 20 years (1750 mill jobs in 1987 to 500 today)from the area has hit Berlin hard. All of the surrounding towns are growing somewhat except for Berlin with the towns to the south, Randolph, Shelburne and Gorham having a lot of second home and retirement homes being built. Even Milan and Dummer show a lot of new housing and upgraded older housing. Berlin has also had a small housing boom of sorts as evidenced by the development on Cates Hill. The town of Randolph has effectively locked up the majority of the remaining developable land in town, deciding that its always going to be summer retreat. Shelburne has been aggressive in zoning to limit growth and any remaining large parcels of land are being bought by people from "away". Luckilly they may be from away, but are willing to put up with Dump and Donuts on Saturdays.

Berlin was already suffering an excess of low end apartment blocks that were owned by absentee landlords before the pulp mill shut down. No need to worry about an inflow of low income individuals moving in due to cheap rent they are already there. The majority of the housing was built when Berlin had a population of three times as many as there are today. The city has recognized the problem and is actively working to tear down the worse buildings and is actively harrassing the slumlords to bring their buildings up to code or be condemned. The city has run out of space in its industrial park and has a couple of potential mid size employers looking at moving into the area along with the upcoming federal prison. The federal prisons long term impact can be debated, but the two to three year boost to the economy for the third largest construction project ever in NH, is going to pump a lot of money into the area. In general it took a long time for Berlin to decline and it will take a while for it to get on its feet but at least its going in the right direction. I dont expect that it will be transformed into a tourist attraction like the Lincoln strip did after Franconia Paper shut down (does anyone remember the drive down the strip before the redevelopment?) , rather it may remain a source of year round jobs in an area that has a high number of seasonal jobs.

There has been a shift in the local Gorham businesses, basically, the restaurants that tended to get a lot of the locals year round in addition to tourists have seen a big drop in business, thus the for sale signs on Welches and Wilfreds. In their place, some higher end tourist oriented places have moved in. Its going to be interesting to see what development moves in now that the new superwalmart is open on the BG road.

So the myth of a poor economy in the whites is case by case and in the eyes of the beholder.

 

[DrewKnight]

In the Southern Whites, I would say "Hold"

If the Whites were a stock on the big board, would you say BUY, SELL, or HOLD?

That's actually an interesting way to look at it. Based on anecdotal evidence, in the Southern Whites, I would say, "Hold". The proximity to Boston (one tank of gas, plus or minus) means that even casual Massachusetts vacationers will still consider the area in times of $3.00/gal gas. That's a good thing, throngs between me and things I might want to do not withstanding.

In spite of the slow start of the 06-07 ski season, I hear that Waterville Valley (and presumably Loon) did OK thanks to the late, abundant snows. This summer so far, bookings have been flat in the Waterville area, but the local attractions (Whale's Tail, Clarkes, etc.) seem to have been mobbed many days. The "distributed camping" along the Tripoli Road is pretty busy every weekend, so at least beer sales are likely to be up.

The Waterville Valley Resort Association has been actively promoting the area, complete with a new web site and Google ads -- that, combined with several marquee events (Bluegrass Festival, Chocolate & Jazz, Shakespeare in the Valley) seems to have brought a good influx of visitors this summer, some overnight but many for the day. I am cautiously optimistic that a lot of them will be back, though the local merchants want more sooner.

 

[Mike P.]

IMO (It's all my opinion) Twin Mt. has also been hurt by a few things: More slope side units at Bretton Woods & accomodations off of Base Road + two bad snowmobile winters + high gas prices & increased lift ticket cost.

If you have under 80K family income multiple activities, regular bills a 401K & college to save for, etc... gas, lift tickets & meals make skiing a couple of weekend activity or something you enjoy closer to home. With sled it's not an option but your machine runs on $$ gas too. Twin Mt. catered to lower middle class/middle class incomes & those people are finding harder to get up north, either because of the economy or lack of snow down low.

If you have a high enough income to ski often & get up north, you probably did not stay in Twin Mt, you stayed more elegant/expensive lodgings, or you get a condo & cook your own meals.

The land is always available to sell for 500K lots but then you end up with views similar to those on 16 in Jackson, homes in the middle of the woods. Nice if you rent those houses on Cyberrentals or you own them but I am guessing most of us prefer those views to be 100% trees or ledge not 4,000+ Sq foot homes.

Main problem with the National Park idea is that you end up building bigger hotels for guest traveling to a National Park, people don't live in national parks but on the border(North Conway becomes Pigeon Forge or Gatlinburg which is more crowded, if you can believe it) & every chain imaginable has a location at each gate.

Now how many people working at Applebee's (Pizza Hut, Wendy's, Clarion, Holiday Inn, etc.) do you think earn a wage capable of supporting a family? Maybe the manager & a chef or two if their spouses also work. A mill or a factory that employs 500 people or so pays a higher wage (usually) people have families & they usually provide benefits. Families require groceries, Md's accountants, schools, lawyers, etc. Housekeepers & waitress typically don't earn enough to support families or get health insurance, if they do it's typically not preventive care but more for hospitialization.

 

[pilgrim]

The first time I took my cousins husband to the Whites (he's from Pennsylania)and took him hiking his first reaction was" I have to move here" That's a common reaction. People say the same when they visit CO, WY, Hawai'i and places of the like. However, reality sets in for them when they investigate the employment situations. Yes, homes are cheaper, but so are the wages. One has to think of the sacrifices.

Known as "Poverty with a View" in the MWV.

 

[Fisher Cat]

Pilgrim says:
Known as "Poverty with a View" in the MWV

Could also be known as Poverty with a View Tax

 

[Andrew]

There was a discussion about the regions redevelopment post mill closure on NHPR about a month ago, and I got steamed over Chamber of Commerce types saying they did not want the wood chip to energy plant to go in at the mill site. They were saying "What a prime piece of waterfront for shops restuarants etc....many are showing interest in the area for second homes." Sounded like a replay of all which we despise in the southern part of the state and the trend which has priced many of us out from home ownership. I wanted to call in and say some in the southern part of the state want to flee to the area to avoid what is happening here and become part of a working class community again, so good thing for the woodchip burner.
Then I met with a realestate agent and he told me how he grew up in the shadow of the belching stacks and hoped there would be a better option than to bringing industry back into the down town location.
I have wanted to move well north for decades but always avoided the Gorham Berlin Area because of the odor from the mill. Now the area seems very attractive to me so I bought a place in Gorham (almost). I work in recreation management and my girlfriend works in wildlife research so the region is appropriate for us. I also need the colder weather. I think we can have great hope for the future of the region as long as balance is maintained, and I would never like to see it turn into Conway which is just too busy.