Frosty
Member
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2004
- Messages
- 144
- Reaction score
- 11
Re: Museum of Science...Risk
Risk as addressed by the Navy involved three components: likelihood of occurrence, consequence if it did occur, and cost (effort) to minimize that risk.
Typically (with both computer systems and hiking and probably everything else), many risks are highly likely but have little consequence (taking a very long lunch at a summit may put you behind schedule but it only means you walk out in the dusk/dark). Risk avoidance is carrying a watch and using it and avoiding th consequence is as easy as carrying a flashlight.
Other risks are not likely to occur (breaking an ankle) but have a high cnsequence in certain situations (breaking the ankle on Lincoln in worsening weather while hiking alone in the winter).
In the Navy, we mostly focused on the risks with high consequences (like the second example). Even though unlikely to occur, they'd constitute a disaster if they did. We also took precautions for likely (but not disastrous) events if corrertion was cheap. Often, this correction did multiple duty by covering several risks.
The "ten hiking essentials" covers just about all the likely risks that are not life-threatening.
The big risks (unlikely but dangerous) involve life-threatening situations and can be addressed when the likelihood increases.
Winter above treeline, especially long ridge traverses, to my mind are the most dangerous, and I think many if not most winter hikers do a good job. Bailing out at the first sign of bad weather covers almost all issues, except in the rare case where the weather unexpectedly changes.
As I think about it, the two risks hardest to address are broken leg (or other physical immobilization) and major bleeding (arterial). I can't think of anything to prevent these occurances, so all one can do is to prepare for them should they occur. FOr the broken leg, I suppose it would be to not hike alone and carry an insulating pad, a sleeping bag, and chemical heaters. For the major bleeding, I can't think of anything that will ensure survival.
Interesting how some concepts float easily from the business world to hiking, no?
Frosty
For a few years in the 1990's I was the computer security manager for a Naval Activity, and one of my jobs was to prepare a risk assessment for our computers.spider solo said:Well this certainly seems a timely topic as I just noticed the Museum of Science has a new exhibt entitled just that...Risk.
Risk as addressed by the Navy involved three components: likelihood of occurrence, consequence if it did occur, and cost (effort) to minimize that risk.
Typically (with both computer systems and hiking and probably everything else), many risks are highly likely but have little consequence (taking a very long lunch at a summit may put you behind schedule but it only means you walk out in the dusk/dark). Risk avoidance is carrying a watch and using it and avoiding th consequence is as easy as carrying a flashlight.
Other risks are not likely to occur (breaking an ankle) but have a high cnsequence in certain situations (breaking the ankle on Lincoln in worsening weather while hiking alone in the winter).
In the Navy, we mostly focused on the risks with high consequences (like the second example). Even though unlikely to occur, they'd constitute a disaster if they did. We also took precautions for likely (but not disastrous) events if corrertion was cheap. Often, this correction did multiple duty by covering several risks.
The "ten hiking essentials" covers just about all the likely risks that are not life-threatening.
The big risks (unlikely but dangerous) involve life-threatening situations and can be addressed when the likelihood increases.
Winter above treeline, especially long ridge traverses, to my mind are the most dangerous, and I think many if not most winter hikers do a good job. Bailing out at the first sign of bad weather covers almost all issues, except in the rare case where the weather unexpectedly changes.
As I think about it, the two risks hardest to address are broken leg (or other physical immobilization) and major bleeding (arterial). I can't think of anything to prevent these occurances, so all one can do is to prepare for them should they occur. FOr the broken leg, I suppose it would be to not hike alone and carry an insulating pad, a sleeping bag, and chemical heaters. For the major bleeding, I can't think of anything that will ensure survival.
Interesting how some concepts float easily from the business world to hiking, no?
Frosty