The Trickle Down Effect

[bandana4me]

I was thinking (my first mistake) with all the talk of gas, oil and food prices going thru the roof (everything soaring except salaries), will that have an effect on the backcountry?

Here is my theory: Will those who normally stay in cabins, motels, weekly or monthly rentals resort to "trickling down" to campgrounds?

Will those who normally stay at campgrounds "trickle down" to hiking trails to "camp" either legally (over crowding the shelters and tentsites) or illegally?

That leaves the Hiking/backpacking community. This is not intended as an insult to the hikers (the vast majority hike because it is a part of who they are!) but where does that leave them? Will the normal trail hikers revert to wacking? Do they reduce their trips due to crowds? How would you feel if you wacked up Mt. Nancy to find 30 hikers there?

Curious on how some of you feel about the "Trickle Down Effect".

FYI the weekend traffic seams very light so far!

 

[rocket21]

FYI the weekend traffic seams very light so far!

Hah! I made the mistake of driving to Conway yesterday - the traffic was backed up past the Kanc to Bald Hill Road. That's almost as backed up as it gets there (the worst I saw last year was to the gas stations).

 

[cbcbd]

Here is my theory: Will those who normally stay in cabins, motels, weekly or monthly rentals resort to "trickling down" to campgrounds?

IMO, I doubt it... those who spent the money before still will - an extra $20-50 of gas per trip won't impact their trip enough to give up the luxuries of the vacation.

I think gas prices will affect decisions related to distance travelled, not necessarily what they do when they get there... if at all.

 

[Remix]

Well all the radio news and print media are saying the high gas prices are going to put a crimp on travel, so its hard for me to believe that car vacation destinations are going to do just as well as they have with low fuel prices.

Guess we will just have to look at the statistics come Tuesday...

 

[rocket21]

I think one factor that isn't explored is how people pay for gas. I still see a lot of people who, when they go to the gas station, only put $10 or $20 cash in their tank at a time. If one is only filling in $20 increments, they will certainly note the increase and perhaps curb their consumpting. In addition, psychologically one feels more pain parting with cash rather than swiping a card. Compare that to those who smiply fill their tank, swiping plastic (I am one of them). While it certainly isn't fun to see the price per gallon or the total, one is still filling up as often as before and isn't feeling the same pain as those who throw in a $20 at a time. Just an observation.

 

[Solitary]

Cash vs. Plastic

...Compare that to those who smiply fill their tank, swiping plastic (I am one of them)...

I charge everything I can (including the gas I buy to get to trailheads) on my REI Visa. So the only silver lining for the higher gas prices is that I'm increasing my size of my dividend and the new hiking goodies I'll be able to buy next spring.

 

[DrewKnight]

Early return notes re: Trickledown

I know a lot of people are wondering about this in the Whites right now. I guess I come down on the side of "nearer destinations may do OK" -- with airfares out of control, places that are a tank of gas away suddenly look very appealing. If you might have considered driving to, say Washington, DC (500 miles, 20mpg, $200 in gas R/T from Boston), Lincoln, Waterville Valley, or Conway look pretty good (150 miles, 20mpg, $60 in gas R/T).

I would say based on anecdotal evidence Saturday afternoon, it's busy up here, but certainly not a blow-out holiday weekend.

* The parking lot at Depot Camp (Livermore Road) was about 2/3rds full at noon. There were about 10 cars at the Mt. Tecumseh trailhead (and a shout-out to Kaseri, whom we bumped into yesterday AM during a Hershey's Kiss break on the trail).

* Lincoln was busy in the afternoon -- most of the lots were full, people were out and about, but it wasn't bumper to bumper, either. The Common Man was pretty well full but there was no wait at 6pm.

* The "distributed camping" along Tripoli Road was summer-weekend busy last night, though it seemed like there were more big groups than usual and maybe fewer small pods. It might be true that there were a higher percentage of NH plates than usual, too. It seemed that way to me.

At any rate, I remain hopeful that what's a pain the wallet for us all might at least be zero-sum gain for closer tourist spots in the Whites, on the Maine coast, in VT and on the Cape.

 

[Grumpy]

I think one factor that isn't explored is how people pay for gas. I still see a lot of people who, when they go to the gas station, only put $10 or $20 cash in their tank at a time. If one is only filling in $20 increments, they will certainly note the increase and perhaps curb their consumpting. In addition, psychologically one feels more pain parting with cash rather than swiping a card. Compare that to those who smiply fill their tank, swiping plastic (I am one of them). While it certainly isn't fun to see the price per gallon or the total, one is still filling up as often as before and isn't feeling the same pain as those who throw in a $20 at a time. Just an observation.

This is interesting.

I gave up using credit cards some years ago (except for real emergencies or making mail-order type purchases). First step in the weaning process was to quit buying motor fuel using plastic. Interestingly, I now have a much better sense of how much is spent on fuel, and other things as well. Watching a wad of cash shrink makes me think about what is going on.

For the last several years I usually have had more money available for discretionary use than I did when using credit cards. That is starting to change, though, as the cost of just about everything seems to be bumping up rapidly along with fuel costs. My personal earnings are not keeping pace with this.

My fuel fillups are not done in $20 squirts. In fact, the last one (at right around $4 per gallon) set me back $71 and change, paid in cash on the barrelhead. It is very sobering to realize that $50 and $100 bills in the wallet now are the functional equivalent of $20 bills just a few years ago (or so it seems). This hardly can be called progress.

G.

 

[Neil]

Thanks to hiking regularly I buy inexpensive gas in the States almost exclusively and the savings over Canadian gas prices are so extensive that I think I'll go hiking even more often.

Beer is about ½ price to boot, which favorably enhances my hiking economic profile even more.

 

[rocket21]

This is interesting.

I gave up using credit cards some years ago (except for real emergencies or making mail-order type purchases). First step in the weaning process was to quit buying motor fuel using plastic. Interestingly, I now have a much better sense of how much is spent on fuel, and other things as well. Watching a wad of cash shrink makes me think about what is going on.

For the last several years I usually have had more money available for discretionary use than I did when using credit cards. That is starting to change, though, as the cost of just about everything seems to be bumping up rapidly along with fuel costs. My personal earnings are not keeping pace with this.

My fuel fillups are not done in $20 squirts. In fact, the last one (at right around $4 per gallon) set me back $71 and change, paid in cash on the barrelhead. It is very sobering to realize that $50 and $100 bills in the wallet now are the functional equivalent of $20 bills just a few years ago (or so it seems). This hardly can be called progress.

G.

I gave up using credit cards awhile back too, but I use my debit card for gas purchases, as I'm less likely to go buy junk food if I don't have to go into the store and pay for the gas

On the bright side, it's good that we're not (yet?) dealing with rationing. In addition, gas isn't too much more expensive than it was in the early 80s when you factor in inflation. I can't help but wonder if gas stations might consider changing the price on the signs to quarts - seeing price per liter in Canada certainly makes the advertised price a bit more reasonable.

Eventually other prices will likely catch up - I'll be curious as to when the parking fees will increase for WMNF.

 

[Remix]

I had just about put my credit card away and then they offered me 2 percent off gas (**b*stards***)!

 

[sleeping bear]

I don't think increased gas prices will spurn many people to opt to camp instead of staying in a cabin or motel. Folks who stay in cabins or motels (usually) aren't interested in camping, so that's why they don't. As gas prices increase other costs increase as well due to transportation costs. When money gets tighter, some (but not all) will be forced to choose between leisure/recreation and necessities. Necessities will usually win. We will probably find increased use of local parks and natural areas as people wish to curb their leisure spending and recreate closer to home.

While I don't think that I've yet altered any of my travel/recreation plans, those thoughts have crossed my mind. Here, anyway, there has been for the past year or two, a trend of less use in national forests and their campgrounds. I expect that trend will continue this summer.

 

[daxs]

Lots of traffic and crowded on the beaches here in south jersey this weekend. Most folks though are coming from Phila or NYC area so the mileage is not so great. Gas prices are cheaper in NJ than PA too.

 

[rocket21]

Well, the weekend's just about over and the southbound traffic on 16 isn't too bad. Yesterday in Evan's Notch both the Caribou and Baldface parking lots were at capacity (and parking along the road for Baldface). East Royce lot was almost full too. Not too bad.

 

[Orsonab]

Just read the Union Leader article about heating oil hovering around the $4.75/gallon mark right now. If it's still that high in December, I may have to go winter hiking just to keep warm..... (I laugh but I'm crying on the inside...)

 

[SherpaKroto]

I bought a cord of split hardwoord wood in Maine yesterday delivered for $180 (1/2 green, 1/2 dry, and a great price). Between 1/3 of it getting stolen. amd Bearly Live, I'll be out by fall. My woodsman said that he's already getting calls for split green wood. More people are supplimenting their heating needs with wood burners. There is some "trickle down" felt here for theseasonal (me) user: more demand, price is up 50$ a cord.

Traffic yesterday was great until Kennebunk exit. After that, bumper to bumper until rt 495.

I also stopped in at the new Cabela's in Scarborough. Jam packed. I can't tell you how many times I heard "wow- this is way cheaper than LL Bean's". The trickle down for those shoppers is to lower prices. I didn't get any of the "I live in Maine, and will only buy Maine products!" If LL Bean's isn't afraid of the competition, they certainly should be. Doing a totally unscientific scan of the parking lot, it was 80% Maine plates. And people were buying.

 

[Jay H]

I bought 2 cords of seasoned woods, mostly hardwoods 2 years ago for $155/cord delivered! I hear the same thing a bit on some wood burner forums I belong too. I have a wood stove but I also have pellet stove friends and remember hearing a lot about the pellet shortage two winters ago. Hope that doesn't happen again, heard a lot of grief from that.

Now, since I have a pretty good source for monster hardwoods, I get free wood so I only had to buy wood my first season of burning. If I do have to buy wood, I would just buy a grapple load and buck them, and season them, myself.

jay

 

[rocket21]

According to today's Conway Daily Sun, the Mount Washington Valley Chamber of Commerce is reporting that business was equal or better this Memorial Day weekend as compared to last year. Not too shabby!

 

[WinterWarlock]

I can tell you, anecdotally, that I was in the Lake Placid Pub last Friday night, start of Memorial Day weekend, and at 9PM there was no wait. Where was everyone? Just an observation, but it appeared fewer people were in town last weekend.

Scott

 

[Little Rickie]

Clearly the price of gas is an influence on us carpooling to do the Pres Range. The ride starts in Buffalo, picks up 2 in Rochester and 1 in Albany. One car four people.

Neil do you like American beer better?