Those #$%! teases at NWS Gray

[sardog1]

Just the sort of thing to get one's hopes up ... to be followed perhaps by rising blood pressure when it doesn't pan out. From the newest Forecast Discussion from NWS Gray:

"WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES LIMITED MOISTURE IN AN UPSLOPE NW FLOW FOR SUNDAY...THE EURO AND CANADIAN GEM ARE MORE ROBUST. A LEADING SHORT WAVE TRIGGERS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE LEADING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE DIVES SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF CANADA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST BUILDS. THIS IS A POSITIVELY TITLED...FAST MOVING TROUGH...SO CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS STILL UNKNOWN. WILL AWAIT FURTHER MODEL RUNS BEFORE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS INCREASED.

IN THE MEANTIME...PATTERN MAY BECOME ACTIVE DOWN THE ROAD AS RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG AND OFF THE WEST COAST. WOULD PREFER TO HAVE THE RIDGE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST FOR SNOW POTENTIAL IN NEW ENGLAND...BUT AT LEAST THIS IS A START."

(BTW, that should be "TILTED", but they aren't paying me enough to correct their output.)

 

[--M.]

No, no, no: "Aaarrgggghhhhhhh!", try it again.

Look, you really must be more zen about this. One cooks with what's available in the cupboard sometimes, and this is one of those times. Just try to go with it, hike Isolation or something, and make what one can!

I have no expectations for next weekend (good time for Pressies!), but high hopes for February (Shoal Pond!).

As our good friend Joe Walsh says, "Keep a-grinnin' 'til the weekend comes!"

 

[Puck]

We want to know inches and what type of wax....kick and glide

 

[peakbagger]

A very general observation is that we seem to be going into the same pattern as last winter where we had a marginal day on Saturday and a nicer day on Sunday.

Then again, the weather changes significantly from my house in Gorham to North Conway over a span of 30 minutes so its all a crap shot.

 

[sardog1]

We want to know inches and what type of wax....kick and glide

Right now, anything 80 grit and coarser should suffice for kick. Glide? You're gonna need some Teflon suffused with graphite for the gravel stretches ....

 

[sardog1]

You just knew this was coming, didn't you? From the Forecast Discussion of ten minutes ago:

"GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH WILL DIG EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST SUNDAY TRYING TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE DOWNPLAYING ANY MAJOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS RATHER WEAK SO WILL ALSO KEEP ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR NORMAL."

Guess I'll pull the recently-installed snow baskets off the poles and go back to the trekking baskettes .........

 

[grouseking]

You just knew this was coming, didn't you? From the Forecast Discussion of ten minutes ago:

"GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH WILL DIG EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE EAST COAST SUNDAY TRYING TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE DOWNPLAYING ANY MAJOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS RATHER WEAK SO WILL ALSO KEEP ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR NORMAL."

Guess I'll pull the recently-installed snow baskets off the poles and go back to the trekking baskettes .........

Thankfully we have till April for winters around here. I say, give it time. There is some indication that the overall pattern will be changing around the 15th or slightly after.

The way I see it, we've had quite a few amazing winters all in a row. We were bound to see a dud at some point. Things tend to balance themselves out over time. Luckily, the mtns usually find a way to get some decent snow eventually.

 

[skiguy]

Thankfully we have till April for winters around here.

......and the blackflys
......like they say they leave on snowshoes and come in on snowshoes

......a good winter to learn how to play Bridge

 

[skiguy]

There is some indication that the overall pattern will be changing around the 15th or slightly after.

Turn on the upslope will ya already!

 

[freighttrain48]

+1 for the upslope

 

[skiguy]

http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=htt...QGapg4qAQGixqFFCT9FNgFMpgdBHAicOTHlF6fYb27I8Q

Lets hope the changes this dude is talking about come true

 

[sardog1]

http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=htt...QGapg4qAQGixqFFCT9FNgFMpgdBHAicOTHlF6fYb27I8Q

Lets hope the changes this dude is talking about come true

Hmmm. From the forecast Discussion ten minutes ago:
"WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE FLOE OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
SEE SEVERAL TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL LACK ANY REAL DYNAMICS...AND PASS MAINLY TO
THE N OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MTNS...AND MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDY PERIODS NEAR THE COAST.

THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SAT NIGHT...SO AFTER A MILD...BUT
SOMEWHAT CLOUDY DAY ON SAT...LOOKS FOR COOLER...BUT SUNNIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY....AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE RIDGE
LOOKS TO HANG AROUND FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES
THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE. BEHIND THIS WAVE...WE WILL SHIFT TO
MORE SW FLOW...WHICH WILL TAP INTO WARMER AIR FOR TUE/WED. THE
NEXT CHC OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOOKS TO BE LATE WED ONTO THU AS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE GULF STATES GETS PICKED UP SW FLOW AND
ACCELERATES NE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE
AHEAD OF IT...DO NOT SEE IT AS A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER
ATTM...BUT IT IS DAY 6/7...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW."

Methinks the Mad Lad doth proclaim too much "ATTM".

 

[skiguy]

Agreed sardog. Me think dem Vermonsters might be indulging in a little too much of the local grown agriculture on this one

 

[sardog1]

Agreed sardog. Me think dem Vermonsters might be indulging in a little too much of the local grown agriculture on this one

I thought the same thing. Or perhaps it's just the effects of Nivian Environment Withdrawal Syndrome -- I know I'm feeling it.

 

[Puck]

Nivian Environment Withdrawal Syndrome -- I know I'm feeling it.

Now there is a diagnosis for it can we get insurance to cover it?

 

[weatherman]

Hmmm. From the forecast Discussion ten minutes ago:
"WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE FLOE OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
SEE SEVERAL TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL LACK ANY REAL DYNAMICS...AND PASS MAINLY TO
THE N OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SCT SHOWERS...MAINLY
IN THE MTNS...AND MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDY PERIODS NEAR THE COAST.

THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SAT NIGHT...SO AFTER A MILD...BUT
SOMEWHAT CLOUDY DAY ON SAT...LOOKS FOR COOLER...BUT SUNNIER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY....AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE RIDGE
LOOKS TO HANG AROUND FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES
THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE. BEHIND THIS WAVE...WE WILL SHIFT TO
MORE SW FLOW...WHICH WILL TAP INTO WARMER AIR FOR TUE/WED. THE
NEXT CHC OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOOKS TO BE LATE WED ONTO THU AS A
CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE GULF STATES GETS PICKED UP SW FLOW AND
ACCELERATES NE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE
AHEAD OF IT...DO NOT SEE IT AS A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER
ATTM...BUT IT IS DAY 6/7...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW."

Methinks the Mad Lad doth proclaim too much "ATTM".

ATTM they are absolutely dying for something, anything wintry to talk about. Modelology is endlessly entertaining unless it leads to antisocial behavior and/or suicide. I think this is the most universally boring winter I can remember when considered on a national basis... except for all the record high temperatures!

 

[sardog1]

Minnesota just posted its first 60º F temps for the first week of January ever.

 

[Quietman]

Here is something to drool over for Thursday


WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
AFOREMENTIONED STORM WILL BRING A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP TO SNE WITH
PRECIP STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE SW AND TOWARD DAYBREAK NE MA
AND SE NH. INCREASING ELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY WARM THE BL
RESULTING IN MAINLY RAIN NEAR THE COAST...BUT PTYPE WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
TO START. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...BEFORE A TRANSITION TO ICE THEN
RAIN OCCURS FROM S TO N AS MID LEVEL WARMING MOVES NWD ACROSS
REGION. ICING MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN WESTERN MA AND POSSIBLY
PORTIONS OF N CT WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
AS SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUM WILL BE N OF
ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR INTO S NH WHERE SNOW WILL LAST THE LONGEST WITH
LESS ICING CONCERNS HERE. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ESTIMATES ARE 1-3" N
OF THE PIKE INCREASING TO 3-6" N OF ROUTE 2...BUT THIS CAN STILL
CHANGE WITH HIGHER OR LOWER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AND
EXACT THERMAL PROFILE.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z...A BIT LATER NE ZONES THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM S TO N AS DRY SLOT LIFTS N ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AT
THE EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT NEAR THE S COAST AS CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE
FAVORABLE WITH SUBZERO SWI AND TT SPIKING INTO THE LOW/MID

 

[skiguy]

Interesting how this year the potential for six inches of snow almost seems like a big storm.