Weather forecasting

[Mike Z]

I am interested in knowing where you get your weather forecast.
I look at a few and there is always discrepency between them. Which one do you find to be the most accurate?
I go to the national weather service. Also I like mountain-forecast.com.
I always take any forecast with a grain of salt. Especially the farther out I look.
Mike Z

 

[DayTrip]

1) Mountain-Forecast.com I find to be most useful and most accurate, except wind speed. As I've used the site for awhile now it seems to me the wind forecast they post is the peak gust for the time period, not an average. I go to this site first to create a "base" forecast for my trip. If you click through to the wind map too it has a map you can advance frame by frame to see how the various high and low pressure areas will affect speed and direction of wind.

2) Intellicast.com Active Weather Map I then use to look at storm fronts, clouds, etc as well as the hourly forecast for the city I'll be closest to. Tends to confirm what I'm looking at on MF.com and identifies windows of sun, clouds, high winds or whatever. You can edit what and how you look at map which is useful and it has animations of the various maps.

3) Mount Washington Observatory High Summits Forecast. This is really limited to a fairly specific area but it is generally very accurate and provides a good relative benchmark of what you can expect on the peak you'll be on. Kind of a worst case scenario forecast you can use to gauge what your hike will be like.

I used to look at a lot of other weather sites but they generally do not add anything of value I haven't already found on the above sites. Many people like to check the local weather websites and municipal airport forecasts in the area. Anything you can do to dial in as close as possible to the exact area you will be will yield the best results.

 

[cushetunk]

The National Weather Service offices in Gray, ME and Burlington VT have improved tremendously in forecasting for the mountains over the past few years. I use both the point and click grid forecasts, and the higher summits specific forecasts. The summit forecasts cover the Daks and the Greens (Burlington), and the Whites, and western Maine (Gray). Out of nostalgic obligation, I still check the Obs if I'm headed to the Presis, but NWS updates more often, and has proven slightly more reliable on my last few trips. In any case, they rarely vary significantly so it hardly matters.

Intellicast does have nice radar which I sometimes check to see where the upslope is...

 

[Mike Z]

This makes me feel good. I have all these sites bookmarked on my computer.
Thanks so much for the input.
MZ

 

[Fuzzy]

Is there a good place to go to get ceiling height forecasts? I keep running into generic statements of "cloudy", only to find that the ceiling is well above 6000', and cloudy becomes irrelevant (for me) at that point. A forecast of a ceiling below 3000' would probably push me away from hiking and towards skiing.

 

[Jay H]

Is there a good place to go to get ceiling height forecasts? I keep running into generic statements of "cloudy", only to find that the ceiling is well above 6000', and cloudy becomes irrelevant (for me) at that point. A forecast of a ceiling below 3000' would probably push me away from hiking and towards skiing.

Maybe try to find a local airport forecast since the cloud ceiling is probably fairly important for civilian aviators.... some small airports might have that info as a forecast on a website or so..

Jay

 

[TCD]

From

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

".AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN THE CT VALLEY SLOWLY
THINNING OUT. ANTICIPATING MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER
ESTABLISHED. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGHOUT REGION.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS SOUTHEAST
WITH ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE
ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS FAR NORTHWEST AS A WST-PYM
LINE.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS WILL
FILTER OUT BY THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS ALL
LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
TODAY BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECTING VFR AFTERNOON
ONWARD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE PERIOD. SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN
MASS.

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS AT 2000-3000 FEET AGL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON."

 

[DayTrip]

The MWOBS High Summits forecast usually has some sort of indication in their forecast. For example, the other day it said "in the clear under cloudy skies" meaning that the summit would be clear but high clouds above. They seem to state both the above summit and at the summit conditions in most reports so you can get an idea how the views might be. Not as detailed as an airport forecast but not as much deciphering either.