White in NH...Presi Traverse...missing hikers

[DougPaul]

At least one article, at one time, said their GPS wasn't working correctly. I have seen GPS's give bad readings plenty of times. GPS is a good tool must should not be relied on or given preferential treatment over what a map and compass say. I have seen hikers who go the wrong way because of what their GPS was telling them, whereas a map would show the right way clear as day.

Modern GPSes (eg 60CSx and later high-sensitivity units) are much better than the older units and not everybody knows how to use a GPS effectively. Such reports often (usually?) omit the model, the skills of the operator, and the situation (such as how good is the skyview, what is the GPS orientation). A skilled operator will also know what errors to expect and can often recognize when the GPS is giving a bad location. I have had no unexpected and undetected position fix problems with my 60CSx. IMO the problem is more lack of operator knowledge rather than a modern GPS problem. Without the side information, such reports are useless.

Take a look at the GPS Bakeoff: it shows the differences between several popular GPS models while hiking with realistic non-ideal skyviews. http://www.vftt.org/forums/showthread.php?t=14406

GPS Bakeoff #2 is a more detailed study of the accuracy of two popular models under better skyview conditions. http://www.vftt.org/forums/showthread.php?t=15025

I was hiking with someone and we agreed to split up and regroup at South Twin. I got back to South Twin and he was not there. Turns out his GPS gave an incorrect elevation reading so he did not believe he was at South Twin and continued on to North Twin before realizing his mistake. Word got relayed to me by other hikers, so no real harm. However simply looking at the map, trail signs, or a compass and ignoring the GPS reading would clearly show he was indeed at South Twin.

IMO, this is certainly an operator problem. I can't tell if it is also a GPS problem.

I wonder if blind obedience to their GPS is part of why they could not find the Ammo Trail as a bailout instead of taking the Dry River Trail.

It is possible, however they were on a ridge with a very good skyview if they took a few steps away from the hut. (And of course, they could have checked the accuracy of the GPS fix because the hut is a known location.) (And as I have argued in previous posts, once you are at the hut you don't need a GPS to find the Ammo Ravine Tr--just sufficient knowledge of the local layout.) We don't have the side information to support such a claim and as such, it is an idle speculation.

Blind obedience to a GPS (or any other navigational tool including M&C) when other sources of information are available is IMO an operator error.

Doug

 

[DougPaul]

It's getting so I just can't afford to hike anymore. I think I'll save my money, buy TV, and watch Discovery instead.

And then inactivity will get you...

Doug

 

[Neil]

It's getting so I just can't afford to hike anymore. I think I'll save my money, buy TV, and watch Discovery instead.

Soon, if "they" catch you hiking without a state-of-the-art cell phone with mega-hertz coming out the ying-yang and a Serf 7 chipset GPS with 23 thousand gigabytes of 3D special effects, animated contoured maps, backtracking, 200 million color screen (user configurable of course) and every new bell and whistle recently down the pike your bank account is toast buddy.

In the future, better you stay at home and read trip reports from Giant Mountain and Carter Dome on VFTT. (Views from the Television).

 

[hikes-with-him]

I'm thinking of hiring a Sherpa and a Llama...

That should do...

 

[JohnL]

Considering that the weather on Saturday morning on top of Mt Washington was 8 below zero with 85mph winds out of the NW, it would not have been much different at the Lakes Hut. Combine that with poor visibility and blowing snow, it would take a bit more than “knowledge of the local layout” to find the “funnel” that leads you to safety on the Ammo Trail from the Hut. At this time of year the winter trail does not go in and out of the trees like the summer route does. During your winter ascent on the Ammo Trail, after crossing the main brook at the ledges, you go into the woods and climb the stairs. Then you come out into the open and instead of crossing the stream a few times like you do in the summer, you stay out in the open, keeping to the streambed and the open ledges all the way to the Hut. This is a distance of a quarter to a third of a mile. That’s a very long distance in an 80mph headwind with minimum visibility.

Our party was on Mt Jefferson on Sunday in relatively benign conditions. We ran into several groups who were attempting a Presi Traverse and a friend of my hiking companion whose group bailed down the Ammo after losing their way just trying to find the Hut after the thick undercast rose higher, commented in a subsequent email that if it had not been for the tracks of the numerous hikers who had gone down the Ammo that day, they may not have been able to find their way. There are no cairns on this section of trail. These were very experienced White Mtn hikers. They did not have the disadvantage of the fierce wind and cold of the previous day. We also talked to two guys who had gone up Monroe the same day and they said, in effect, that the trail on the upper section below the Hut was nowhere. In other words, it followed whatever open areas the trailblazers chose that day.

After being pinned down for two days at the Lakes Hut, to me it seems quite obvious why the couple chose to go down into the Dry River area. Average wind speed on Saturday was 82.3mph. Average. Peak gust was 108mph. You cannot walk on flat ground in those conditions let alone stick your face into it and try to force your way down a steep uneven track that you cannot see.

JohnL

 

[HAMTERO]

Excellent post by JohnL.

 

[Cath]

Indeed, excellent post by JohnL

 

[DougPaul]

Considering that the weather on Saturday morning on top of Mt Washington was 8 below zero with 85mph winds out of the NW, it would not have been much different at the Lakes Hut. Combine that with poor visibility and blowing snow, it would take a bit more than “knowledge of the local layout” to find the “funnel” that leads you to safety on the Ammo Trail from the Hut. At this time of year the winter trail does not go in and out of the trees like the summer route does. During your winter ascent on the Ammo Trail, after crossing the main brook at the ledges, you go into the woods and climb the stairs. Then you come out into the open and instead of crossing the stream a few times like you do in the summer, you stay out in the open, keeping to the streambed and the open ledges all the way to the Hut. This is a distance of a quarter to a third of a mile. That’s a very long distance in an 80mph headwind with minimum visibility.

Our party was on Mt Jefferson on Sunday in relatively benign conditions. We ran into several groups who were attempting a Presi Traverse and a friend of my hiking companion whose group bailed down the Ammo after losing their way just trying to find the Hut after the thick undercast rose higher, commented in a subsequent email that if it had not been for the tracks of the numerous hikers who had gone down the Ammo that day, they may not have been able to find their way. There are no cairns on this section of trail. These were very experienced White Mtn hikers. They did not have the disadvantage of the fierce wind and cold of the previous day. We also talked to two guys who had gone up Monroe the same day and they said, in effect, that the trail on the upper section below the Hut was nowhere. In other words, it followed whatever open areas the trailblazers chose that day.

OK. It would appear that Ammo Ravine Tr is currently harder to find than when I was there--this is a high snow year and the snow may not have blown away from the top of the trail. They did have a GPS and hopefully knew how to use it.

After being pinned down for two days at the Lakes Hut, to me it seems quite obvious why the couple chose to go down into the Dry River area. Average wind speed on Saturday was 82.3mph. Average. Peak gust was 108mph. You cannot walk on flat ground in those conditions let alone stick your face into it and try to force your way down a steep uneven track that you cannot see.

Those were the conditions at the weather instruments (30 ft above ground IIRC) on Mt Washington. The wind is usually somewhat less at lower altitudes (and lower closer to the ground due to the boundary layer), but there is no question that it was quite windy.

Average also means average. We don't know how much lower it was during the lulls and whether they would have been able to take advantage of them.

We should also note that going over toward the Dry River involves about 70 ft of climb and about .2 mi (as the crow flies) until one gets back down to the altitude of the hut. One would be at least as exposed to the wind heading toward Dry River as one would be going down Ammo Ravine. Yes, it would likely been at their backs rather than from the front. I'm sure neither route was a picnic.

<speculation on>
IMO, Ammo Ravine would probably still have been the better choice, but I wasn't there.
<speculation off>

Doug

 

[Lawn Sale]

Competence is not a yes/no scale. It is a sliding scale and must be judged with respect to the task. This crew was doing a Southern Prezie traverse and should be judged accordingly. (IIRC, one of the earlier versions of the report said that their car was at Pinkham.)

Oh, a sliding scale. I thought it was more of a bell curve.

My point, apparently missed, was that the competence is often judged by those sitting in armchairs critiquing on a computer and not out on the trail in like conditions. Therefore caution should be used when tossing around the word "competence".

Have you ever hiked Ammo Ravine Trail? It goes straight downhill (NW) from the west corner of the Hut. (They were already at the hut.) Trees on either side of the trail form a funnel which will guide you to the treadway. It should be easy to find in poor visibility and you are in the trees within 100 yards or so. (There is a minor difficulty after trees have closed in--you have to cross from the SW to the NE side of the stream.) My guess is that the hikers had never done this before or they would have been able to find it.

Doug

I guess you missed my post...yes, I have hiked it, a few times, in some less than favorable winter conditions, which is why I can say with certainty it's not as easy as you make it out to be. Even the AMC guide we met had trouble finding it. When the wind is blowing, the ice deep enough to obscure the trail, and the snow drifting on top of that, it'd be very easy to lose the trail.

 

[Dr. Dasypodidae]

Marc Chauvin's Presi Escape Routes

I posted this link exactly one month ago in Rejean's Presi traverse thread begun on 1/6/09 (post #21, 1/17/09). The Ammi (Ammonoosuc Ravine Trail) "is the best way down from Lakes in bad weather." Period. "338 degrees TN, 0.4 mi, -717 ft to treeline. 15 mintues." Wind direction is irrelevant. GPS, irrelevant. Working compass and ability to read compass, absolute necessity. Better yet, have bearing labels taped to the back of compass for all the Presi escape routes. If the weather conditions are too bad to follow a compass bearing into the wind, best to stay put, even without food and fuel, especially if you have bivi sacks and sleeping bags.

http://www.vftt.org/forums/showthread.php?p=260390

 

[Mad Townie]

I was on the Ammo Trail for the first time ever this past Monday. (On other hikes I've headed down the southern Prezzies, or the Jewell Trail.) What JohnL says is definitely true.

As I was making my solo way up the Ammo, in beautiful, clear conditions, I came out into the open area (so it's a stream bed, eh?) and wondered to myself how people ever find their way in the winter. Sure it wasn't bad on the way up because I knew that I'd eventually see the hut, but I don't know what track I would have followed without the little crampon marks to show me the way.

On the way down I marveled that anyone could ever find the trail! Again, I followed the crampon marks, but every time I looked up I wondered which of those spaces before me the "trail" would end up entering. I had read about the trail going through scrub, into the open and through some more scrub, but that wasn't what I was seeing.

I suppose I could have found my way eventually to the "stairs" (really? I saw plenty of steeps, but the stairs weren't exactly sticking out of the snow) and that stream crossing at the head of the falls, but I know that in bad conditions getting there would have been a pretty "interesting" experience. Note: I had a map, and a compass hanging around my neck as usual. I'm just talking about visual cues, not magnetic ones.

 

[JohnL]

--this is a high snow year and the snow may not have blown away from the top of the trail.

Sorry, but as of the January summary from the MWO, snowfall was 14 inches below average for the month and 22.2 inches below average for the season up to that time. Their Sunday morning weather report reported 9.3 inches of snow vs a February average of 42.4 inches. This is indeed not a “high snow year”.

Since you are otherwise so precise in your wordings and analysis, I’ll take your words (“It would appear that Ammo Ravine Tr is currently harder to find than when I was there”) for what they imply; that you were there as a singular event. Are you basing your opinions and advice on a single event or a more populated body of experience with this trail?

Mad Townie,
Yes there are indeed stairs in the section directly above the main stream crossing. I refer to it as the stairs in the same vein as I refer to the section of the Mt Tecumseh Trail above the ski trail outlook as the escalator. I have pet names for certain sections of trails that bring back memorable experiences.

So I guess for the lost couple, their ultimate safe return is all that really matters. It’s not for nothing that the three ‘rescues’ noted here happened in the Dry River area where the perception of safety was higher than descending the Ammo Trail. I agree that in many sets of conditions, the Ammo Trail is the ‘best’ trail to descend, but not always. Period. Wind and its many effects are great equalizers and are highly persuasive in your decision making processes.

JohnL

 

[Mattl]

John L, Mount Washington cannot measure the same snowfall as the surrounding area, There has actually been quite a bit of snow this year from November - Feb in the Whites, so it has piled up. The month of Feb was very dry overall, but if you look at every single storm this year, Hermit Lakes has record more every time. That has to do with moisture levels at different elevations but also wind. Wind makes it almost impossible to get an accurate record of how much snow falls on the summit. Some areas along the treeline near the Ammo Trail, could get more then 350 inches a year, but no one knows. If you look at snow depths for this year, it is actually pretty deep. 4-7feet in most places above 2000 feet. Sometimes the smallest amount of snow can cause bad drifting. The point of this? Never use Mount Washington to get an idea of how much snow fell in a year. Look at last year, it was a record year for mulitple towns all over New England, and a ton of snow for the Whites, but Mount Washington was still below average last year.

-Mattl

 

[JohnL]

Current depth chart from outdoors.org:
Lonesome Lake 27”
Zealand Falls 38”
Highland Center 25”
Hermit Lake 52”
Carter Notch 32”
RMC Grey Knob 51” (was 56” 2 weeks ago)
No offense but that doesn’t sound like 4 to 7 feet to me. Hermit Lake gets a lot of “blown over” snow and not just snow fall. How much “blown over” snow Grey Knob gets is anyone’s guess.
A couple weeks ago tree blazes were easily distinguishable just below eye level on Fishin’Jimmy. In some spots on the trail bare rocks were visible. Sunday when we hiked up the Jewell Trail I’d be hard pressed to get in waist deep anywhere if I went off trail.
Rain, warm weather, wind, consolidation notwithstanding, snow fall vs snow depth being what it is, it still does not alter the point that there may or may not have been non-blown away snow at the top of the Ammo Trail to impede the ability of hikers to ascertain the trail. And yes, I have been on the Ammo Trail when the snow depth below the ledges/main stream crossing was horrendous and above it there was minimal snow out in the open stream/ledges.

JohnL

 

[Craig]

Pic Taken 2/16/09

A picture is worth a thousands words. This was taken about 500 yds below the hut.



JohnL is 100% correct.

The entrance at treeline in winter is difficult to find in idea conditions without tracks to follow. IMO, it should not be suggested that this trail is an easy find under adverse conditions regardless of snow depth.

If you were to head down looking for the entrance in low visibility, it’s likely you’d be funneled into the open drainage stream. This could be disastrous.

If the conditions at the hut are as reported, I’d be scared to head in that direction looking for the treeline entrance.

 

[giggy]

Excellent post by JohnL.

agree - anyone that had been in the above treeline nasty's knows how fast things can go wrong and how different they can seem.

example - I have summited washington 30 times in all seasons(and likely as many turn backs), many different routes, technical and not. last year - I topped out in the garden after a climb up hunt ravine in bad - but not really bad conditions, I have been many a times down the lion head winter route and this day, I had a brain fart on finding the lion head trail due to low vis, winds, etc.. I know that peak better than any others and I still got messed up for little while....

sh*t happens... you don't know dick unless you were there.

 

[DaveSunRa]

sh*t happens... you don't know dick unless you were there.

Well, that about succinctly sums it up.

 

[TrishandAlex]

sh*t happens... you don't know dick unless you were there.

Where's an applause smilie when you need it?

 

[dug]

Shoot, I've been "lost" twice in bad weather in the winter. Once on Lafayette and once on Jackson (of all places). It doesn't take much to lose some visibility, go the wrong way, and follow some wrong footprints. Once that happens, you are hard pressed not to follow the path of least resistance.

I've since decided to hike in a snowcat, thereby eliminating almost all the need for a rescue. It's item #11 on the must have lists.

 

[Willoughby]

"Lost" in the Fells

Shoot, I've been "lost" twice in bad weather in the winter. Once on Lafayette and once on Jackson (of all places). It doesn't take much to lose some visibility, go the wrong way, and follow some wrong footprints. Once that happens, you are hard pressed not to follow the path of least resistance.

I got "lost" in the Middlesex Fells last weekend. I took the Skyline Trail from S. Border Rd to the tower - no problem - but I came back the same way (normally I do a loop), missed a turn, followed a herd path for a while... then figured out I wasn't where I ought to be and backtracked.

Happily, I was in Mass so there won't be an article in the Union Leader with snarky comments about me wasting NH F&G's resources.