Worst Case Scenario

[Paradox]

A few years back there was a board game out there called "Worst Case Scenario.” You would role a die, move some spaces, draw a card and have to answer a life or death question. A question such as: best action to take to escape from the jaws of a crocodile or what you should do in the seconds after your best friend has swallowed a bad clam. That is, stuff you must do when there is no time to call 911, or while waiting for SAR.

So lets play a game about really bad scenarios we might encounter.

Two to get us started:
1) You are driving through Franconia Notch doing your usual 65 MPH. Black is all that is in front of you when you realize it’s a FRIGGIN’ MOOSE 150’ AHEAD! What is the best survival strategy for the next few seconds you have left.
2) It is 5 degrees below zero, the wind speed has gone from 5 mph to 50 mph in the past 5 minutes, there is 50 foot visibility and it is 5 miles back to your car. There is a small, uninhabited, log cabin with barred and shuttered windows in front of you, and a locked door that swings to the inside. What is the fasted and safest way to get in?
3) Got more?

 

[MichaelJ]

1. Duck. That moose is coming through the windshield, try to be under it.
2. Depends on how it's locked. Odds are pretty good I can unscrew the lock or the hasp from the frame and just open the door.

ps - If the windows are shuttered, how do I know they're barred?

 

[Kevin Rooney]

1) Hit the brakes and lay over towards the passenger seat at the last moment - pray for the best.

2) Kick the front door in. It won't be hard to prop it back in place later to keep out the wind and elements.

 

[DougPaul]

1) Hit the brakes and lay over towards the passenger seat at the last moment - pray for the best.

Unfortunately this unhooks your shoulder from the seatbelt, moves your body below the airbags, and put your face where it is likely to hit the shift lever. And if you miss the moose, you will most likely lose control of the car.

This is just a set of observations--it still may (or may not) be the best thing to do. (I don't claim to know what is best--I suspect that there is no good answer, just a least bad answer.)

Maybe we need regs for moose and deer collision protection systems in certain parts of the country...

Doug

 

[Kevin Rooney]

Unfortunately this unhooks your shoulder from the seatbelt, moves your body below the airbags, and put your face where it is likely to hit the shift lever. And if you miss the moose, you will most likely lose control of the car.
Doug

Yes, I think you have to almost concede loss of control in Paradox's scenario, but IMO you want to avoid being crushed by the moose. And, this tactic may not work as some vehicles lock the seatbelt when you apply the brakes, so any side movement would be difficult if not impossible.

Am curious as to what other people's instinctive reaction would be.

 

[chinooktrail]

1) My X hit a moose in Pinkham Notch in a sports car. (With his first X on their wedding night. (No, not making this up))

Fortunately she was fully reclined and fast asleep. He slammed on the brakes with both feet and leaned over to the passenger seat.

The moose rolled over the top of the car.

When he went to sit back up, he couldn't, the entire roof of the car was squished down to the level of the door frame and his seat back.

Obviously they had to be cut out of the vehicle, but get this, neither of them had so much as a scratch, nothing.

So, in this case, leaning over saved his life. The airbags never went off because they hit the belly of the moose with windshield, not the legs with the bumper, so they never deployed.


2) Think I agree with Bryan, and would keep hiking, but to play the game... I like Michael J's idea of unscrewing the hinges, but if the door is installed like any I have installed, the hinges would be inside the door and the frame and not accessiable. I don't believe I would be strong enough or bold enough, to break in the door. Hum, that leaves me sitting on the side of the cabin out of the wind, having some hot food to refuel and waiting for the wind to die down.

Good game, thanks for starting it!

 

[sapblatt]

1 - FWIW I could not avoid a skunk at 65 mph on I-93 a few weeks back - it was foggy and by the time I saw it the best I could do without going off the road was to not it with a tire, but to straddle it...I would try real hard to avoid hitting the moose, but I know that is unlikely without going off the road and getting myself killed that way.

2. It would depend where it was -if the area was super exposed and no forest back to my car I would try to get in the cabin - if the hike was relatively sheltered in the woods I would try to keep moving.

 

[cushetunk]

What are you going to do once you're inside the cabin? Shiver away in a -5 degree unheated building? Sounds safer in the long run to move yourself somewhere else.

For the moose question, if I did the math right, you have at least 1.5 seconds to react... more than I expected. (65 mph = 95 feet/sec.) I don't know if that's encouraging or not.

 

[DougPaul]

Yes, I think you have to almost concede loss of control in Paradox's scenario, but IMO you want to avoid being crushed by the moose. And, this tactic may not work as some vehicles lock the seatbelt when you apply the brakes, so any side movement would be difficult if not impossible.

Yes, I also suspect that getting below the level of the window is the best strategy, even with its obvious disadvantages. But this is only a guess.

I also try to follow another vehicle (at a reasonable distance) to reduce the chance of a collision. It sweeps the road clear and its lights help to increase the warning time.

Doug

 

[Double Bow]

1.) hit brakes and lean to passenger side

2.) keep on hikin'. 5mi isn't that far, the conditions aren't that bad.

 

[MichaelJ]

I like Michael J's idea of unscrewing the hinges, but if the door is installed like any I have installed, the hinges would be inside the door and the frame and not accessiable.

Actually, I wasn't thinking of the hinges, I know they'd be inaccessible, but hoping the door would have a simple hasp with a padlock, and the hasp could just be unscrewed from the door frame.

 

[DougPaul]

Actually, I wasn't thinking of the hinges, I know they'd be inaccessible, but hoping the door would have a simple hasp with a padlock, and the hasp could just be unscrewed from the door frame.

If the hasp is properly installed, the screws will be inaccessible.

Same applies to hinge screws and hinge pins.

Doug

 

[chinooktrail]

OOPS! Sorry BRIAN.

 

[nartreb]

1) You don't have time for the brakes to make much difference. I wouldn't bother with them. (A good sedan has a 60mph stopping distance of around 180' on dry roads, so if you really had 150' the brakes would be a big help if you can hit the brakes fast enough. But reaction time for most people at that speed eats up around half your distance, and in the time that's left the brakes will only knock about 20mph off your speed.) If you do manage to hit the brakes, your seat belt will lock up and probably prevent you from ducking.

Cushetunk, I used to work in a neurology lab. We studied a very simple, repetitive "discrimination" task - is the picture flashing on the screen a member of category X (eg, polygons) or category Y (eg, curved shapes)? The key decision-making moment for our purposes was reflected in the EEGs 300ms (a third of a second) after the event. I forget how long it took subjects to actually push a button (that was already under their thumb), but I think it was about half a second later. If you had to make an unrehearsed decision (it's a moose, what to do?) and then take motor action (move your foot to the brake, or start ducking), you're probably talking more than a second before your foot hits the brake. So you've really got less than half a second in which your actions can have any effect.

I hit a deer not long ago just south of Franconia Notch, I'd say it was 70 feet ahead when it jumped in front of me from the median strip. I didn't even have time to complete a one-syllable curse word. (Note I was going faster than this hypothetical - I won't make that mistake again. [I had my high-beams on and I was only a minute or two behind other highway traffic - the deer just picked the wrong time to play Frogger.]) I didn't consciously think about it, but I rejected brakes or swerving - the highway was too narrow, I'd have hit a tree before I could regain control. If it had been a moose, I might not be here today.

2) I'm with Double Bow and NH-Mtn_hiker, why would you want to go inside?
OK, assuming I had a companion who was hypothermic, a solid back-kick in the vicinity of the hinge or doorknob will usually break the hinge or lock loose from the door with minimum risk of breaking a toe or dislocating a shoulder, and acceptable structural damage both in terms of still providing shelter and in terms of repair costs. If that didn't work I might try using an ice axe to pry a shutter off. If that didn't work, use the cabin as a windbreak and start evaluating treatment priorities based on available resources - clothing, hot drink, shelter, fire...

 

[RoySwkr]

What are you going to do once you're inside the cabin? Shiver away in a -5 degree unheated building?

Who says it's unheated?

Suppose there is a sign on the door that it's locked to keep out bears but the key is hanging just below the eaves and you're welcome to go in. You enter and in the beam of your flashlight there is a fire already laid in the woodstove, a kerosene lantern hanging from the ceiling, a propane heater, and a Coleman stove. You have only one match.

4th grade problem: which do you light first?

 

[cushetunk]

4th grade problem: which do you light first?

Pick me! Pick me!

Well, this cabin is sounding better and better. Which alpine zone is this in, by the way? I would like to hike there this winter.

Nartreb, I didn't mean to imply that 1.5 seconds was ample time for leisurely contemplation. Rather, I had expected that someone would have less than a second before hitting the moose in that scenario -- I was just surprised at the extra time the math allowed!

 

[MichaelJ]

If the hasp is properly installed, the screws will be inaccessible.

Still doesn't mean I wouldn't look first.

 

[Dugan]

1) I've read that you should also try to swerve toward the rear of the moose. The reasoning given is that if the moose moves, it is likely to move forward, and that it is better for you and your car to strike a glancing blow to one side of the car rather than a square head on blow. Anyone want to test this and report back?

 

[Barbarossa]

1) I've read that you should also try to swerve toward the rear of the moose. The reasoning given is that if the moose moves, it is likely to move forward, and that it is better for you and your car to strike a glancing blow to one side of the car rather than a square head on blow. Anyone want to test this and report back?

Back in July, I tried to steer around a moose. It was about 5:30 AM, just west of Kancamagus Pass. A young cow really, really wanted to cross the road. (stupid teenagers ) I stepped on the brake and turned into the other lane, but she panicked and headed in the same direction. Fortunately, I side-swiped her, instead of hitting herr head-on. She tumbled, but walked away. When I went back to retrieve my passenger side mirror, I could see where it had scraped some hair from her flank. It was just lighter brown, no skin visible.

 

[Chip]

A moose may be the exception to my "No Swerving for Animals" rule, but I'm not sure. 3 friends in High School were killed when the driver (one of their mothers) swerved to avoid a fox and hit a tree. I'd guess more people are killed/injured swerving than taking a straight line while braking. It's been my observation that small animals do better also, it seems they have better instincts to escape if I've kept a straight line.