Assessing Weather Risks for a Group

[Blue]

Hello,

I'm hiking with 3 small teams of hikers this weekend staying at Galehead Friday night and Greenleaf on Saturday night. The participants are fairly strong hikers, who have a moderate amount of hiking experience. While I have hiked in this area many times before, I have actually never hiked between Galehead and Greenleaf and I'm not sure how much time/distance is spent above treeline.

Last year, when I participated in this hike, we hiked Madison to Lakes. I had to throw some last minute alternatives together because a.) conditions included rain, sleet and thunderstorms around Mt. Washington and b.) strong winds on Sunday at Lakes. We ended up taking protected trails down and shuttling, instead of crossing in exposed areas.

This year, our "risky" day is Saturday, hiking Galehead to Greenleaf - and I'm already seeing some thunderstorm risk in the forecast. If you were the leader of a group - would you hike to Garfield and assess the thunderstorm risk there (if big storm clouds were approaching, we could get down from Garfield)? Or if there was a chance of afternoon thunderstorms from the Observatory posted at Galehead... would you even bother hiking across to Greenleaf (we could go back down Gale River and get shuttled to the Bridal Path)? Or would you just "go for it"?

In the past, I've consulted with the hut croo and other group leaders in order to make these kinds of decisions.. but I just thought I would toss this out here.

Thanks.

 

[vegematic]

I've hiked this section several times but in the opposite direction. Garfield merely peaks above treeline and so is fairly inconsequential, but you will have close to 2 miles of above-treeline exposure at the end of what most folks deem to be a very challenging hike. And the exposure is on Franconia Ridge which is notorious for lightning danger. I've been sprinting down to the hut as a T-storm passed over and i can attest that its reputation is well deserved.

I'm pretty wimpy when it comes to lightning. My vote would be to take Gale River down and shuttle over to Greenleaf or Bridle Path if there are T-storms predicted for the afternoon.

You could head over to Garfield first (many folks find this stretch to be pretty tough) and assess conditions there, but then you still have a long walk down, shuttle around, and a good climb back up (possibly in the T-stroms) if you decide to bail out at that point.

Hopefully it will be clear and sunny and you won't have to worry about it!
-vegematic

 

[Waumbek]

The National Weather Service always says that there is no safe way to hike in thunderstorms. There are only a number of things to do to lessen your vulnerability. The exposed part of your hike is the latter end, Lafayette side. But it can be dangerous to be among isolated tall trees as well. It's very hard to give advice in advance about what to do. I always err on the side of caution in T-storms, especially on the Franconia Ridge, as I recall lightning deaths up there in the last 20 years. Here's a comprehensive site on lightning that might help you to assess risk.

 

[dave.m]

This year, our "risky" day is Saturday, hiking Galehead to Greenleaf - and I'm already seeing some thunderstorm risk in the forecast. If you were the leader of a group - would you hike to Garfield and assess the thunderstorm risk there (if big storm clouds were approaching, we could get down from Garfield)? Or if there was a chance of afternoon thunderstorms from the Observatory posted at Galehead... would you even bother hiking across to Greenleaf (we could go back down Gale River and get shuttled to the Bridal Path)? Or would you just "go for it"?

Couple of thoughts...

1) The time above treeline on Garfield is pretty limited and you will be past it well before lunch. But, it is a pretty long time above treeline on the Lafayette ridge. Once you hit treeline heading south, you are exposed pretty much until you get to Greenleaf. And the climb UP into the summit weather as you proceed south is not inconsequential.

2) The Skokumchuck trail is a possible escape route. I don't have a map handy so you will want to verify and consider carefully a) how far up the exposed northern ridge you have to go to find the intersection, b) will you be able reliably find it if the weather hits the fan (I seem to recall the intersection is easy to find but its been a spell) and c) if Skukumchuck will expose you to lightning danger as it passes the north western ridges and cliffs.

3) The go/no-go decision depends on a lot of factors that are hard to generalize. I'm personally pretty laissez-faire about lightning threat, an opinion not shared by my close friend afka_bob. Some of the factors to think about are How will the group make and support decisions, What is role as leader in making safety related decisions and What is the risk appetite and skill (speed) of the group?

4) If worse comes to worse, there are camping opportunities near the trail between Garfield and Lafayette. Are they 100% legal? Does it matter when you are pinned down by storms?

5) Remember Lee Travino's advice and wave a 1-iron golf club over your head if you hear thunder. "Not even God can hit a 1-iron."

 

[MichaelJ]

Almost any summer day is going to have a forecast chance of afternoon thunderstorms, so I think you do need to assess the situation as the day progesses. Franconia Ridge is definitely not a place to be in lightning, but unless a cold front is passing through on Saturday there is no guarantee of a storm.

I would get the morning Mt. Washington weather while you're at Galehead, and perhaps even talk with the Croo to see if they have a sense of this summer, how often a chance of t'storms has turned into actual storms.

You also have an emergency bailout at the Skookumchuck trail if you guess wrong.

 

[DougPaul]

2) The Skokumchuck trail is a possible escape route. I don't have a map handy so you will want to verify and consider carefully a) how far up the exposed northern ridge you have to go to find the intersection, b) will you be able reliably find it if the weather hits the fan (I seem to recall the intersection is easy to find but its been a spell) and c) if Skukumchuck will expose you to lightning danger as it passes the north western ridges and cliffs.

The point where Skokumchuck trail hits the ridge is bare. The ridge between that point and Lafayette is also bare. Don't recall how far it is from the ST-ridge junction to sigificant tree cover.

One could go down Skookumchuck to the bike path, walk the bike path to Greenleaf Tr and back up to Greenleaf Hut. Might be a little long if added to the hike over from Galehead.

Doug

 

[jfb]

I'd check the weather report at Galehead in the morning and decide there. My recommendation to the group would depend on the probability and expected severity of thunderstorms and the expected time of arrival.

 

[Mike P.]

Assuming it's your cars at Gale River so you can drive whenever to F-Notch I'd consider this:

Head to Garfield, see how you are doing for time. How is weather looking? As Michael said, pretty much T-storms are an afternoon possibility for a while.

Skookumchuck trail is below North Lafayette & while above treeline would be a sane escape in bad weather. The descent to the bike path & then up Greenleaf trail (at end of exit for Cannon - do not keep walking to OBP) is safer in bad weather but I'd probably chance getting to Lafayette's summit if not raining & T-storms were either not audble or quite some distance away (45 minutes or more - how do you tell, well that is a guess)

 

[DougPaul]

Head to Garfield, see how you are doing for time. How is weather looking? As Michael said, pretty much T-storms are an afternoon possibility for a while.

Another option if you hike to Garfield and the weather looks threatening:

At Garfield, if need be, you can skip the summit (its on a short side trail) and head down the Garfield trail without getting too exposed. From the trailhead, it is a short walk to the cars at the Galehead trailhead. Then you can drive to OBP or Greenleaf trailhead and reascend.

Greenleaf trail is somewhat exposed where it passes through the notch at Eagle Cliff and OBP is somewhat exposed as it approaches the hut. Take your choice.

Doug

 

[Stan]

With so many in your party it would seem feasible to spot a car(s) for that bailout possibility and hike to Greenleaf from Franconia Notch if conditions warranted. At worse, it's not too far to fetch the car if you don't need it.

I haven't hiked the stretch between Lafayette and Garfield but if its anything like Garfield to Galehead then allow more time than the distance and elevation gain suggest.

 

[sapblatt]

T-storms

Another thing to consider is how early t-storms tend to hit the Whites. Nearer to Boston they tend to be in the late afternoon ane evening. I was told, and found out first hand two weeks ago that they tend to occur a lot earlier in the Whites. Even more noteworthy is that the mountains make their own weather. Closer to home we can often see the storms rolling in from the west for a good hour...in the mountains they can just happen right on top of you.

One suggestion, beyond all of the already stated good ones would be to reverse the direction of your hike, this way you will get the ridge part out of the way earlier in the day. Another option that may not fly for you is starting extra early...5Am perhaps. Of course I doubt I would be willing to forego a hut breakfast.

Be safe and have fun!

 

[Doc McPeak]

Your other option may be to use the extra long daylight, and if early to mid afternoon storms are expected, start later and crest Lafayette for early evening. You'll probably run into a couple of the croo up there to watch the sunset. You may have good light until 9, at least. So sleep in! I think they'll keep dinner waiting for you?

It may be tough to assess any storms moving from the west from Garfield, since the ridge will be blocking your view. You would have a bit of natural protection hiking up to the Skook junction if the storms come from the south to west. It is exposed but pretty well blocked from above and to the west.

Hitting Lafayette later worked great for us last year, as the twenty or so people dwindled down to just the two of us in ten minutes. Under bright blue skies we had the entire ridge to ourselves all the way to Liberty! I thought they said this was a crowded trail!?

Have fun and hope the clouds pass you by. Hearing your route brings back fond memories.

 

[DougPaul]

Your other option may be to use the extra long daylight, and if early to mid afternoon storms are expected, start later and crest Lafayette for early evening.

Thunderstorms tend to be most likely in the afternoon til about midnight. This is, of course, only an average and any particular day may deviate from this pattern.

Doug

 

[weatherman]

tough one.

I'll weigh in, though I claim no special expertise with my trailname, only interest. Looking at the forecast, the trigger for t-storms will be mainly a cold front, which may not pass through till very late Sat night/Sun morning. So the afternoon itself may not be very thundery, perhaps more the evening. Severe weather at this point is not predicted. The biggest threat IMHO will be the HEAT. As you know, you have a long dry stretch, with tough terrain. So a speedy pace across the ridge may be near impossible. With such a big group and easy trailhead access I like Stan's idea of a plan B bailout car spot, and just take your time, bring a 1-iron and watch to the west. Good luck!

Weatherman

 

[RoySwkr]

The problem with any bailout route is that it leaves you with a 2000' gain from Franconia Notch up to Greenleaf Hut at the end of the day, presumably in bad weather

If they hike to Garfield & then down, will they have the energy left?

If they hike to Skookumchuck & then down, will they have the energy left?

If they bail, will they insist on hiking back up to the Hut or will they just go home? If it is important for them to spend the night at the hut, you need to bail soon enough that they will stilll make it up (near the Solstice, energy is more critical than darkness).

You are above treeline from before the Skookumchuck junction to just above the hut, or over a mile. I would not do this in a thunderstorm, but depending on how fast you hike you may be able to judge at treeline whether there will be a storm before you get across.

On Mt Princeton in CO is a plaque to a gifted triathlete who couldn't outrun a lightning bolt.

 

[weatherman]

Good point Roy. I think we (I anyway) assumed a bailout would mean no hut Sat night- a distinct bummer. Anyway, it's looking really hot and not as thundery as of this morning. If it rains hard, lean back and open your mouths!

 

[Blue]

If they hike to Garfield & then down, will they have the energy left?

If they hike to Skookumchuck & then down, will they have the energy left?

I think we would. These hikers have been on 7-9 hour hikes this spring (some doing the Linc/Laf loop) and if we get a fairly early start, I think we'd be ok even if we had to get down Garfield or Skoo and go back up.

I'm thinking we will leave just after breakfast and head to Garfield, with the forecast in mind. We'll stop at Garfield and assess the weather, continue if it's looking good. Before we get to treeline, if we hear thunder in the distance we can either wait it out below treeline or hit the Skookumchuck. The treeline and exit points do give us some flexibility.

Thanks for the suggestions!

 

[LittleBear]

Blue:

I was in a situation on Memorial Day Weekend on the other end of Lafayette ridge (had hiked from Greenleaf to Little Haystack and then continued on to Liberty before returning to the hut). As I was climbing back up Little Haystack I noticed ominous clouds moving in quickly and rumbles of thunder. T-storms had not been in the weather forecast that morning at the hut (just chance of showers), so I was a caught a bit off guard. At the time I was still in the trees and was continuing my ascent up Little Haystack, but the thunder kept rolling and the clouds moving in. I certainly didn't want to get stuck on the ridge, so I decided to hunker down and wait a while to see if the storms would pass over and then I could continue on my way. I ended up waiting almost 1 hour, but the storms did pass and I continued over the ridge and back to Greenleaf with no problems. The storms did seem to converge over Washington and hang around for a long time, but it was clear sailing for me. Depending on what you encounter, it might be worth sitting it out for a while to see if the weather improves.

 

[sierra]

Its been quite a while since Ive done this hike, but, I dont see why you dont just get up real early( alpine start) and beat the storms? This idea of going down then up would not be appealing to me, once im down I drive to beer and pizza.

 

[MichaelJ]

They're going hut-to-hut, which means an early departure would entail missing breakfast.

The latest forecast puts the thunderstorm chances off to the evening and overnight (apparently the front has slowed), so hopefully all will be well on Saturday for them!