Climbers stranded on hood as we speak

[Chip]

They were hoping that this is an indication that the phone was being turned on and off to save the batteries. IMO, it could be read several ways...
Doug

I don't follow, wouldn't it at least indicate he was still alive enough to turn it on and off ? What are the other ways to read this ?

 

[giggy]

i guess there is some specualtion that if the battery dies and can recgarge a bit and then send another signal. I donno

the weather was supposed be brutal up there yesterday/last night. lots of snow, lots of winds - more than 100mph -

 

[DougPaul]

I don't follow, wouldn't it at least indicate he was still alive enough to turn it on and off ? What are the other ways to read this ?

The signals were weak, so the phone was probably near the range limit from the nearest tower. Something may have changed to allow contact for a short period of time.

<PURE SPECULATION>
Possible reasons allowing the contact:
* Phone was turned on by living human.
* Something blocking the signal was moved away
- pack turned over (by human, wind, or avalanche)
- snow cover removed (by human, wind, or avalanche)
- human carrying the phone exited snow cave for a few minutes
- human body moved out of the way (still alive and moving, wind, or avalanche). There is a reasonable chance that the phone was being kept close to someone's body to keep the batteries warm.
* Changes in signal propagation--the signals were simply stronger for a while.

Possible reasons for losing contact:
* Phone turned off by living human
* Human went back into snow cave
* Batteries ran out
* Batteries too cold
* Water got into phone
* Phone covered up by something that blocks the signal (human body, pack, snow, snow build-up on roof of snow cave)
* Phone avalanched and buried.
</PURE SPECULATION>

And of course, simply because Nextel was able to contact the phone does not mean that there is a live human nearby. There has to be evidence that something intelligent was done with the phone.

All of the above reasons are PURE SPECULATION. The ability to contact the phone for a short period can be caused by so many things that I consider it to be of little use to determining the climbers status. Nextel was able to get an approximate location for the phone--believed to be a snowcave near the summit--which could be very helpful to the SAR folks when the weather clears enough for them to ascend to the summit region.

The last ironclad evidence that they were alive that I am aware of is the phone call to relatives Sunday afternoon.

I personally believe that if they are well dug in, they have a reasonable chance of still being alive. But they only had a few days of food and fuel, so if alive, they will likely be dehydrated, cold, hungry, and exhausted. If they were not able to get into (and stay in) a good shelter (eg a snow cave), I think there is little chance.

Not trying to scare anyone, just trying to be realistic. It looks to me like the SAR folks are doing everything that is reasonable to do. The rest of us can only wait and hope.

Doug

 

[DougPaul]

i guess there is some specualtion that if the battery dies and can recgarge a bit and then send another signal. I donno

Most likely only if someone turns the phone off and then back on. Or warms it up before turning back on. Possible, but not definitive. Something to add to my list of speculative reasons in my previous post.

the weather was supposed be brutal up there yesterday/last night. lots of snow, lots of winds - more than 100mph -

Its been a very bad scene up there...

Doug

 

[giggy]

yea - talk about some bad luck... I would say it would be tough to keep the body core warm for that long in those conditions. Just one bad stroke of luck after another, injury, and having to wait out multiple storms even the best weatherman couldn't have predicted. They likely thought, ok - we'll be in athe cave for a day or 2 and when the weather clears, we'll make our way down, get help, etc.. then 7+ days of bad weather.

This kind of hit home with me, not saying I am on the same level as these guys, but when you see people dying in the himalya, etc.. - thats a world away, different skill level, , etc.. But Mt Hood (while tough) is very much in the reach of the average mountaineer (even the cooper spur) - that could be a lot of us here on this board up there.

I hope these guys don't get flamed on boards or in the press.

 

[DougPaul]

yea - talk about some bad luck...

The reports so far seem to suggest that the guys made reasonable decisions. However, you can do everything "right" and bad luck can still bite you...

I hope these guys don't get flamed on boards or in the press.

I've been following the events via the 2 URLs that I posted way back in post #9 of this thread. So far most of the discussion has been pretty well behaved and informative. The CascadeClimbers BBS is largely local (to the PNW) climbers so they understand the issues pretty well. There are also sereral SAR members on the BBS, some of whom are participating in the current efforts.

Doug

 

[Zer0-G]

Watching the news last night, I heard someone speculate that it is quite possible that the two climbers that left for help were quite likely holed up in the snowcave with their partner.

It would have made sense to do that. Seeing the weather conditions deteriorate after splitting up and then deciding to backtrack.

I would think, unless something nasty happened to the two that sought help, they probably could have made it down to 7000 or 6000 feet had the conditions been a tad more favorable and then possibly meeting the SAR team.

The other possibility is they are still split up with one in one snow shelter and the other two in another.

If they were all holed up in the snow shelter I would think they would have a better chance at waiting out a prolonged storm.

I can't help but wonder what I would do in a situation like that.

 

[Zer0-G]

I just read the following off of the fox news website:

Quote:
"Notes left by a trio of climbers missing on Mount Hood show they have supplies that could help them survive in the blizzard conditions on Oregon's highest mountain, officials said Friday.

At a news conference, Bernard pointed to an orange, handwritten note the climbers left at a ranger station before they started their climb

It said the climbers took gear such as food, fuel, bivvy sacks, a shovel and ropes, all of which could be helpful as the three hunkered down in the storms."
End Quote:

A bit of hope.....

 

[NYBRAD]

The will to live! Touching the void

Joe Simpson shows what can be done when the S#$% hits the fan.......
You all know the story ... the gripping rendition of a climber's worst nightmare come true.

SIMON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We should hear some good news in the next day or two I hope.

 

[Zer0-G]

The more I read and research about these guys, I am "expecting" them to get down to safety.

 

[AntlerPeak]

Here is a detailed description of the extraordinary effort SAR is putting into this. Found this on the NW hikers forum. It is a report from the Hood County Sheriff dept.

It is the last post on the bottom of the page, very interesting and shows the dedication of the SAR guys.

 

[Kevin Rooney]

There's a bit of a weather window at the moment, but the picture below shows how strong the winds are in the Cascades. The picture below is of Shasta, south of Hood, and a taller peak - click on the image to see a larger version. It's obvious from the snow plume why it is tough to get above treeline in conditions like these.



The SAR units are at great risk in these conditions. Sure hope both the climbers and search staff get down OK.

I guess I had a different take on the Fox news item Zer0-G posted - "food, fuel, bivvy sacks, a shovel and ropes" - sounds rather thin. Sure wish that list had included 3 sleeping bags and insulated pads. They've been on the mountain a long time.

 

[DougPaul]

I guess I had a different take on the Fox news item Zer0-G posted - "food, fuel, bivvy sacks, a shovel and ropes" - sounds rather thin.

Agreed.

I also found the report to be rather uninformative--no indication of how much food and fuel. They were attempting a fast and light 2-3 day ascent, which would suggest that they likely brought food and fuel for 4 or fewer days. So yes, they brought food and fuel, but how much?

They left their car on Wed the 6th. The telephone call was on the afternoon of Sunday the 10th. Today is the 15th. They are almost certainly out of fuel and food. (No fuel likely means no drinking water and melting snow with body heat can be lethal.) And there are indications that one is injured or otherwise unable to travel on his own.

Even if they are all together in a luxurious snow cave, I'd say that their situation is most likely rather serious.

Doug

 

[AOC-1]

The climbers planned to bivy on the route so all three likely brought bags. Jerry Cooke, the Brooklyn climber, had discussed on cascadeclimbers his plan to try out a half-bag/DAS parka sleeping system on this climb. The shovel was an encouraging item to see on the list. That means they had the capability to dig a proper snow cave. And if the "fuel" was a small full butane canister, it could last awhile if used sparingly for melting snow. But did Jerry and Brian Hall leave the shovel and stove with Kelly James, their injured partner in the snow cave? Or did they take these items when they left to seek help? Most climbers would at least leave a stove with an injured partner.

I think we'll have news tomorrow. Hoping for the best for all three.

 

[sierra]

sometimes people survive situations that seem lost, I'm rooting for these guy's and thier in my prayer's tonight.

 

[TomD]

This video clip shows how bad the weather is up there.
http://www.nbc30.com/news/10535331/detail.html

 

[DougPaul]

sometimes people survive situations that seem lost, I'm rooting for these guy's and thier in my prayer's tonight.

People have certainly survived similar conditions for longer. I think we are all rooting for them and for the safety of the SAR personel on the mountain.

Doug

 

[DougPaul]

"High Tech to the Rescue" http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2006/12/13/20506.aspx

Info on some of the remote sensors that are being used to search for the climbers, including info on the reliability of cell phones on the N side of the mountain.

Doug

 

[Zer0-G]

Agreed.

I also found the report to be rather uninformative--no indication of how much food and fuel. They were attempting a fast and light 2-3 day ascent, which would suggest that they likely brought food and fuel for 4 or fewer days. So yes, they brought food and fuel, but how much?

They left their car on Wed the 6th. The telephone call was on the afternoon of Sunday the 10th. Today is the 15th. They are almost certainly out of fuel and food. (No fuel likely means no drinking water and melting snow with body heat can be lethal.) And there are indications that one is injured or otherwise unable to travel on his own.

Even if they are all together in a luxurious snow cave, I'd say that their situation is most likely rather serious.

Doug

I too agree. Their situation is understatedly extremely serious.

However, all reports leading up to that report implied that they didn't have even that much gear. "light and quick" can mean almost anything and most of them not good. At least if left up to my imagination.

These resources in the hands of experienced climbers, in this situation, IMHO, significantly increases their chances for a more favorable outcome.

I undersatnd, that over the long haul (7 to 14 days), food is not as important as water/hydration. And a reasonable amount of fuel, used with an appropriate strategy can only help with the hydration aspect. We obviously don't know what other equipment they might have that would aid in hydrating. But an important component that would be reasonable to expect that they might have are a few water bottles? This combined with a reasonable amount of fuel could provide enough water to keep them hydrated for quite a while.

There are a few very good strategies for winter water preparation (melting) that are designed with the idea of using fuel in the most efiicient way to get the most "bang for the buck". The ratio of "used fuel" / "usable water".

Ultralighters into winter backpacking are aware of most of these types of techniques. Worthy of another thread for sure.

Anyway, most important here is to send all good wishes and blessings to them and their families for the most favorable outcome.

Zer0-G

 

[DougPaul]

However, all reports leading up to that report implied that they didn't have even that much gear. "light and quick" can mean almost anything and most of them not good. At least if left up to my imagination.

I recalled some earlier reports that sounded like they were carrying reasonable gear considering what they were trying to do, so the new report didn't seem (to me) to add much.

I undersatnd, that over the long haul (7 to 14 days), food is not as important as water/hydration.

Rule of threes--things that will kill you:
* 3 minutes without air
* 3 hours without shelter
* 3 days without water
* 3 weeks without food.
Obviously the exact times vary depending upon many details, but this gives a general order of priorities.

And a reasonable amount of fuel, used with an appropriate strategy can only help with the hydration aspect. We obviously don't know what other equipment they might have that would aid in hydrating. But an important component that would be reasonable to expect that they might have are a few water bottles? This combined with a reasonable amount of fuel could provide enough water to keep them hydrated for quite a while.

Water is heavier than the fuel required to melt snow/ice. And water is pretty heavy, so it is likely that they did not carry large amounts. I would be surprised if they carried fuel for more than 4 days or 5 at the outside. It was expected to be a 2-3 day climb.

heat of fusion of water: ~80kcal/liter
energy in gasoline: ~8300kcal/liter
(But stove-pot systems are very inefficient so 10-20 liters of water per liter of gasoline might be realistic.)

It is also possible (likely?) that they only had one stove. Likely left in the snow cave with the injured climber (along with extra food)--the other 2 likely would have been expecting to be down soon.

Doug