Fatality on Mt. Guyot

[maineguy]

Some info on climbing Everest. This site mentions wind speed (forecast) should not exceed 40 MPH, but you can try 50 MPH but will probably suffer for it (near the bottom of the page).

http://www.mounteverest.net/expguide/toclimb.htm

 

[KRooney]

The WMUR clip was good. Short, accurate, and respectful.

 

[NHChris]

Here is a snippet from a Union Leader story that places some of the responsibility for the accident on the weather service:

... He knew the trails intimately and had hiked them in all kinds of conditions. But nothing in the forecast prepared him for what he encountered on the grueling Pemi Loop Trail.

..... When a sudden storm blew in, with near-hurricane-force winds and chest-deep snowdrifts...

The article also indicates he tried to bail out to the Zealand Hut but missed the trail junction in blowing snow.

Article states that he planned to average 2 mph, but in reality was averaging less than 1 mph.

He was traveling light without snowshoes or any shelter. He did carry extra clothes.

 

[Yury]

He was traveling light without snowshoes or any shelter. He did carry extra clothes.

Can I assume that not having snowshoes was his main mistake?

 

[JoshandBaron]

There was a winter weather advisory in effect from 9am to 10pm that day that was issued the prior afternoon.

 

[peakbagger]

IMO, Yes lack of snowshoes definitely was a factor as a 1MPH pace is indicative of deep snow/postholing. Even with snowshoes, the standard trail snowshoe carried by many are not large enough for breaking trail. Fish and Game carries shoes with 2 to 3 times more surface area for that reason. Breaking trail without snowshoes in even 2 or 3 feet of snow is a cold and wet experience. Body energy consumption goes up considerably to account for exertion and to account for increased heat loss due to wind. Clothes get soaked with melting snow and perspiration. A rational hiker generally either formally or informally will look at a map or his past experience and have intermediate goal points with potential bail out points, we do not know when the others bailed but IMO several hours prior to the end of the hike on Bondcliff he should have known that it was not going to be day for a record and time to bail out. Realistically that bailout point should have been Garfield trail or Galehead.

Given the terrain between Guyot and Zealand versus the final location described in the article, I am not sure he would have made it to Zealand as I expect early stage hypothermia had set in when he missed the turn to Zealand so his critical thinking skills were degraded. He also missed the turn to Guyot shelter which would have been more sheltered than going up and over Bond to the Bond Cliff ridge. At the Guyot shelter turnoff, my guess was he was no longer thinking rationally and was just pressing on in hopes that he might make it out.

 

[NHChris]

In aviation risk management they use the analogy of many slices Swiss cheese. Most of the time the holes in the slices don't line up and pilots survive one, two, maybe even three consecutive mistakes. When the holes finally do line up the pilot often dies in the resulting accident.

Here the holes in the slices seem to be weather, trail conditions, lack of snowshoes, lack of emergency gear, ambition, delayed pace and being alone.

The elimination of even one of these elements might have allowed him to survive. But the holes aligned.

 

[skiguy]

IMO, Yes lack of snowshoes definitely was a factor as a 1MPH pace is indicative of deep snow/postholing. Even with snowshoes, the standard trail snowshoe carried by many are not large enough for breaking trail. Fish and Game carries shoes with 2 to 3 times more surface area for that reason. Breaking trail without snowshoes in even 2 or 3 feet of snow is a cold and wet experience. Body energy consumption goes up considerably to account for exertion and to account for increased heat loss due to wind. Clothes get soaked with melting snow and perspiration. A rational hiker generally either formally or informally will look at a map or his past experience and have intermediate goal points with potential bail out points, we do not know when the others bailed but IMO several hours prior to the end of the hike on Bondcliff he should have known that it was not going to be day for a record and time to bail out. Realistically that bailout point should have been Garfield trail or Galehead.

Given the terrain between Guyot and Zealand versus the final location described in the article, I am not sure he would have made it to Zealand as I expect early stage hypothermia had set in when he missed the turn to Zealand so his critical thinking skills were degraded. He also missed the turn to Guyot shelter which would have been more sheltered than going up and over Bond to the Bond Cliff ridge. At the Guyot shelter turnoff, my guess was he was no longer thinking rationally and was just pressing on in hopes that he might make it out.

Well stated. As myself and others have stated in other threads related to this incident. Many of these events are a cascading domino effect of smaller mistakes that lead to the eventual main incident. Not having snowshoes IMO being one of the bigger mistakes.

 

[NH2112]

Blaming the weather service as in the U-L article is a copout, they’re not and can’t be 100% correct 100% of the time for 100% of locations. “Nothing in the forecast prepared him for what he encountered.” His experience should have prepared him to be prepared for it, though.

 

[DayTrip]

Sure they would, and its exactly why I think she did what she did. Not defending her, but am willing to understand her line of thinking.

Say what now? I've watched plenty of Mt Everest documentaries and I have NEVER seen one where they see the weather will be blizzard conditions with wind chills of -100 deg F and they "Ok. Let's suit up". When they are in weather like that it is always because they pushed their luck on a short weather window, got behind schedule and the weather ran out.

 

[DayTrip]

..... When a sudden storm blew in, with near-hurricane-force winds and chest-deep snowdrifts...

This is another one of my favorite things you see in rescue and other articles. There is no such thing as a "sudden storm" nowadays with all the technology available, especially for a day hike. A "sudden storm" is something that happens when you don't pay attention to the weather and aren't aware of what is forecast and what that means for trail conditions.

 

[NH2112]

This is another one of my favorite things you see in rescue and other articles. There is no such thing as a "sudden storm" nowadays with all the technology available, especially for a day hike. A "sudden storm" is something that happens when you don't pay attention to the weather and aren't aware of what is forecast and what that means for trail conditions.

Yes, anyone who spends any time outside in the winter will tell you that they can feel and even smell the snow coming at least a couple hours in advance. I think what you’re actually “smelling” is the increasing humidity making your nasal passages feel colder, but “smell” is close enough.

 

[skiguy]

Say what now? I've watched plenty of Mt Everest documentaries and I have NEVER seen one where they see the weather will be blizzard conditions with wind chills of -100 deg F and they "Ok. Let's suit up". When they are in weather like that it is always because they pushed their luck on a short weather window, got behind schedule and the weather ran out.

The burning of the rine….

 

[rocket21]

Even with snowshoes, the standard trail snowshoe carried by many are not large enough for breaking trail.

I don't agree with this. I've broken out the stretch between Guyot and Zealand (in both directions, during times in which the Zealand summit sign is at or below the snowpack) with standard Tubbs Flex Alps snowshoes. It is a workout, but completely doable.

The stretch of trail from Guyot to Zealand can be difficult to navigate when trees are leaning over. Snowshoes made it possible to get through that stretch for me, sometimes bushwhacking into the col, then correcting course.

Conditions can change very quickly, particularly above treeline. Not having snowshoes basically confines one to existing packed trails, which disappear quickly in blowing snow conditions. After that, one can essentially find themselves trapped.

Sadly, if he even had light running snowshoes (smaller than standard snowshoes, but still providing float), he'd likely still be with us today.

 

[dug]

Say what now? I've watched plenty of Mt Everest documentaries and I have NEVER seen one where they see the weather will be blizzard conditions with wind chills of -100 deg F and they "Ok. Let's suit up". When they are in weather like that it is always because they pushed their luck on a short weather window, got behind schedule and the weather ran out.

Hey, feel and say what you want. IMO, she was searching for harsh conditions to get her ready for an Everest trip. Knowing you are "only" 4 miles from a road and could mirror the worst you can get, on paper, looks like a solid plan.

We want people to be as best prepared for conditions when they get there, but sometimes the only way to get prepared for them is to experience them in a more "controlled" environment.

 

[Mountain Thunder]

Can I assume that not having snowshoes was his main mistake?

Added to it, I would guess. Just one of several pieces of equipment he might have reconsidered not leaving behind. As pointed out before, the dilemma of traveling light and fast versus heavy/slower.

 

[peakbagger]

One of the reasons why I stated IMO. I obviously do not know the snow conditions that existed during the hike along the selected route, therefore I have to substitute past experience on lesser used most likely unbroken trails in the past. My speculation was that the hiker was ultra fit given his resume and therefore there was some factor that slowed the pace down to 1 MPH. The most logical assumption based on my past experience is the hiker was breaking trail. If there was crust with a couple of inches of powder on top, then snowshoes were not really needed and that would be reflected by a faster trail speed. Now that the consensus is a CW route, there are several known terrain traps along that route where snow builds up deeper than other areas due to terrain and upslope winds hitting the north south ridge line of Lincoln and Lafayette. Of course, there could be other reasons, very high winds can slow progress down even on boilerplate, but at 1MPH, the slow down is far more likely a consequence of having to break trail. Back in the good old days, when trails were far less likely to be broken out in winter it was quite noticeable on group hikes that the person with the larger snowshoes tended to be in the lead when trails were drifted in by deep powder. Sure we would spell off but when going through waist deep snow those with smaller surface area snowshoes were at a disadvantage and that usually meant shorter rotations at the front. F&G and Avsar (not sure of the Pemi rescue group) all carry larger than normal snowshoes (unless that practice has changed recently).

I do not necessarily support the contention that having snowshoes would have made the difference with this hike. I know with the right snow conditions it could have made the difference but I then fall back to my contention is that the plan in the morning before the hike no matter how good and meticulous, needs to change along the course of the hike as actual field and weather conditions modify it. Those modifications include bailing and waiting for another day and in this case this individual appears to have skipped obvious clues that the pre hike plan was in need of modification.

 

[Ear Drum]

I’m trying out a lighter pack for this weekend, I’m down to 33lb. The stove, fuel, pot, and food seem to be the heaviest group, but I like having 1 day’s food. Even if I cut back I doubt I’ll save more than a pound. Maybe I’ll leave the 1l insulated bottle home and use my 1l plastic bottle if I want to make cocoa. I swapped the GG Nimbus Trace Access 70 for an Osprey Atmos 50 AG, Ibis 0F for a Sierra Designs Mobile Mummy 800 and the Marmot Hammer for an SMD Deschutes tarp. No Marmot Greenland parka, but I do have my EMS Feather Pack. Temps are forecast to drop to the upper teens Saturday night, my sleeping bag has a 27F comfort rating but with the Xtherm I might be warm at lower temps. I can always put on my down pants and jacket, there’s plenty of room in the bag.

Change #17, I re-packed everything into my Crown2 60, dropped the thermos, and am down to 28lb. It carries more comfortably than the Osprey, and as a bonus I can actually open the hip belt pocket zippers one-handed!

Unfortunately it's expensive to get lighter. What is it they say in ultralight backpacking: spending hundreds to save ounces.

 

[Dana]

Hey, feel and say what you want. IMO, she was searching for harsh conditions to get her ready for an Everest trip. Knowing you are "only" 4 miles from a road and could mirror the worst you can get, on paper, looks like a solid plan.

Right, the relatively short distance to roads and civilization compared to other mountainous areas lulls people into a false sense of security. It's part of why Mt. Washington is often called "the most dangerous small mountain in the world."

 

[BillyGr]

This is another one of my favorite things you see in rescue and other articles. There is no such thing as a "sudden storm" nowadays with all the technology available, especially for a day hike. A "sudden storm" is something that happens when you don't pay attention to the weather and aren't aware of what is forecast and what that means for trail conditions.

Even when people read the forecasted conditions, those forecasts are not 100% accurate.

We've had storms that turned out to be more snow than was forecasted, ones where forecasted snow instead became rain, and ones where we were on the "edge" of the storm and got little or nothing when the forecast indicated that it would hit much harder.

Not that it was the case here, but over time when the forecasts turn out wrong (especially when they turn out better than what was suggested), people may not take them as seriously the next time around.