FYI: Northern Pass High Voltage Transmission Project

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Northern Pass wins hands-down on replies and trails only slight in views

Northern Pass
Replies: 549
Views: 150,354

WMNF Road Conditions
Replies: 280
Views: 150,810

The $25,000 fine thread is second on replies (413 replies)
The New Hampshire Fish and Game Search and Rescue Funding Hearing is third (366 replies)

BTW, You can pick a forum and sort it by any of the column headings to figure this out for yourself/

Tim


In terms of longevity, this thread ranks eighth among still-active threads (at least one reply within the past year).

Here are the top 5:
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"Shocked and Outraged" says Eversource. I really wonder how shocked they were?. In my past career in Berlin, I was the project manager for an energy project that met the criteria for requiring a NH SEC permit. There was a process in place to get a waiver around the full formal procedure that we applied for and eventually received but I expect in the VFTT readership I might be one of the few who have sat before the SEC as an applicant. The need for a statewide comprehensive permit on energy projects has been around since the highly controversial never approved major oil refinery and nuclear plant at Seabrook with the realization that a major energy project impacts a region much larger than a town boundary. It took awhile for the law to end up in its current state and just prior to the NP application the makeup on the board was tweaked to give the public more input. These projects are inevitably large dollar speculative projects with the potential for long term profits. The developers have to have deep pockets to gain approval and they are pitted against typically underfunded local entities so it is difficult to make it a fair process. The losing side of a major permit inevitably says the committee is biased, just a rubberstamp permit for big business as the vast majority of the projects are approved. If denied, which is pretty rare, then the losing party is "shocked and outraged".

For the VFTT crowd the two largest projects permitted under the SEC in NH impacting the whites would be the Millsfield Wind Farm and the Groton wind farm on the ridge line overlooking Plymouth. The Millsfield windfarm went through the permit process fairly easily, the conservation community made some objections but the project pretty well was out of sight out of mind in an area with long history of being working woods and I expect most including myself regarded the project as an extension of the working woods history. I kept far less track of the opposition to the Groton wind farm (near Plymouth). I believe the opposition was higher but even though it is a visual blight on the ridgeline in Plymouth, it physically is located in Groton. In this case the project was approved and in general wind farms with similar characteristics seem to be a blind spot in the regulations and developers have learned to "bribe" the local town adequately to support the project. The smaller Jericho windfarm in Berlin was not large enough for an SEC permit and was approved locally. Luckily NP had physical presence in many towns so the viewshed impact from towns outside the towns in the corridor was not an issue except in the WMNF which were largely subdued by the burial modification.

When our project went before the board to hopefully gain a waiver from the full process, we had to prove that we had considered the following and NP had to do the same thing. These are not arbitrary, for each project, they are the law and have been for over 20 years.

" (a) The applicant has adequate financial, technical, and managerial capability to assure construction and operation of the facility in continuing compliance with the terms and conditions of the certificate.
(b) The site and facility will not unduly interfere with the orderly development of the region with due consideration having been given to the views of municipal and regional planning commissions and municipal governing bodies.
(c) The site and facility will not have an unreasonable adverse effect on aesthetics, historic sites, air and water quality, the natural environment, and public health and safety.
(d) [Repealed.]
(e) Issuance of a certificate will serve the public interest
." Here is a link to the RSA http://www.gencourt.state.nh.us/rsa/html/XII/162-H/162-H-16.htm

The import thing to note is that the permit is not issued unless all four conditions are proven based on the record from the public hearings. In case of NP, the SEC could not reconcile the record with Item B. The record developed during the hearing phase was quite the contrary. Few if any towns outright supported the project with the exception of Franklin, which would be the site for the DC converter station which would be a major new taxable property. The majority of the towns formally opposed the project and many were interveners in opposition. Many towns had advisory votes and written public comments opposing the project and the public hearings overwhelmingly showed opposition despite NPs heavy handed attempts to trying to quell opposition.

Therefore in this case, the SEC elected to stop the process as they had reached a fundamental impasse between the record and the law. This shouldn't have been a "shock" to Eversource, the only real supporters of the project were those with direct or indirect economic impacts and politicians who had received past financial support from Eversource. In the case Les Otten's Balsams project, despite months of public denials that his advocacy for the project has no strings attached, in sworn testimony before the SEC he admitted that funding to support the Balsams was conditional on his public support. The SEC does have the right to impose conditions on the approval of a project but I don't think it would have been productive to grant a permit and put in enforceable conditions that Eversource would have to get overwhelming support from the towns and the public at large to proceed. An infinitely large checkbook probably wouldn't turn the tide as certain landowners in northern NH elected to sell their land or development rights at far less to SPNHF then what was being offered by NP.

IMHO, knowing that the process inevitably was going to end up at the state supreme court, the SEC decided they might as well not delay the process. I expect the leagues of lawyers on both sides have built up very long lists of potential points to be appealed. My understanding of state law is the court cant issue a permit all they can do is remand it back to the SEC with guidance on where the process erred from the statute. The NH governor is also unable to force a permit and I expect attempts to change members of the SEC to those who would vote to approve the permit would be met by further appeals. As the opposition knows, the best option to kill the project was just delay it long enough until the project is reconfigured or it becomes not worth pursuing.

A somewhat relevant side note is that Eversource in NH is going to be shrinking substantially as they have just divested their power generation assets. They will now become a regulated transmission and distribution operation. This is a regulated business and the state has oversight in their operations. They will not be allowed to maintain a bloated middle and upper level staff to support their new smaller footprint in the state. The NP project could have potentially been a home to excess staff for 2 to 4 years but without the permit some folks will end up on the street sooner than later. The best approach they have now is try to keep a brave face on and try to delay the inevitable. I expect some high level heads will elect to "retire" as upper management of Eversource is going to need cover.

The state supreme court to date has been hesitant to get involved. There were a couple of attempts to short circuit the SEC permit process by the opposition and it appears as though the court elected not to get involved knowing that they would be involved at a later date. I just don't see any outcome of an appeal that puts the process back on track. I could speculate that NP could attempt to force the SEC to go back into deliberative session but I don't see the outcome changing so its just delaying the inevitable. Ideally NP would be best off requesting a new permit based on burial along existing roads but I expect the Franconia parkway section may require congressional involvement to allow expansion of the developed area. I don't think the option of putting it under the parkway would pass muster as that would require the highway to be closed outright for months to support the construction. They could try to shift to the proposed burial alignment in place in the application but to date there are many indications that the plan in place has created opposition in most towns it runs through. The only other "nuclear option" is to get the project declared a critical regional electric infrastructure project. In theory the Federal Government passed a fast track federal method of bypassing state and local opposition to critical infrastructure projects but despite the intent I don't think it has really been used successfully. Given that there is permitted project in VT and two other far less controversial powerline proposals on the table, I expect Mass will jump on one of them and I don't see a lot of future for NP.
 
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"Shocked and Outraged" says Eversource. I really wonder how shocked they were?

It's like an example of The Argument from Incredulity. One of my favorite logical fallacies to witness in person and so commonly used. I see it something like this:

Step 1: NP is given the not unexpected news that the SEC denied their permit 7-0.

Step 2: A panel of board members from Eversource/NP responds in seeming shock, their eyes all wide. One tosses his glasses on the table leaning back and rolling his head back and to the side. Another three push back from the table in their chairs, their heads quickly darting left and right to each other, "B-b-b-b-b-u-bu-bu-bu-bu....but, but," barely able to muster the words, they are in such shock. "Uh-uh-uh, I don't understand, one mutters with his left hand moving to protect his heart from this shock, his right reaching out in front of him (visions of Redd Foxx here stumbling backward).

"How can this be??!!...."

"There must be some kind of mistake?!?!"

"Surely, there is someone who we can speak with...surely there is something that can be done to correct this!"

I've worked with someone for a long time who could be the absolute poster child for this fallacy. He's a master and quite entertaining to watch in action.
 
The Balsams speaks (sort of)

https://www.conwaydailysun.com/berl...cle_488940aa-0c2f-11e8-8181-6f8aca3fbce0.html

Sure sounds a bit somber. The spokesman is bit clueless on renewable power in Northern NH. Northern NH is a net power generator of renewable power, with the exception of a oil fired turbine peaker plant used for emergencies, all of the power generated in the area is 100% renewable coming from several hydroelectric power plants, the Berlin Biomass plant, Granite Reliable Power (the Millsfield wind farm) and the new Jericho Wind farm. They generate more power than used in the area. The limitations with the Coos loop prevent sending all of this power out of the region. At times the plants in the region are unable to send power out of the region to southern NH and have to be run at reduced output. Therefore the Balsams is going to be fed with 100% renewable power with without Northern Pass. The renewable power in the region is generated relatively locally (about a 50 mile radius) and supports far more local jobs than Hydro Quebec.

I have run into several news articles and interviews by people who are disappointed about the vote, they all seem to be holding out hope that the project will somehow get approved without impacting the timeline. IMO there is really no quick way for the decision to be reversed. Every option I am aware of is appeal to the supreme court, go through a court proceeding, get a ruling that will direct the SEC to continue the process and then vote again, then repeat the appeal process..
 
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Hopefully all the Mass folks who love to come to NH are involved on their end to hinder the process in some way.
 
The Balsams speaks (sort of)

https://www.conwaydailysun.com/berl...cle_488940aa-0c2f-11e8-8181-6f8aca3fbce0.html

Sure sounds a bit somber. The spokesman is bit clueless on renewable power in Northern NH. Northern NH is a net power generator of renewable power, with the exception of a oil fired turbine peaker plant used for emergencies, all of the power generated in the area is 100% renewable coming from several hydroelectric power plants, the Berlin Biomass plant, Granite Reliable Power (the Millsfield wind farm) and the new Jericho Wind farm. They generate more power than used in the area. The limitations with the Coos loop prevent sending all of this power out of the region. At times the plants in the region are unable to send power out of the region to southern NH and have to be run at reduced output. Therefore the Balsams is going to be fed with 100% renewable power with without Northern Pass. The renewable power in the region is generated relatively locally (about a 50 mile radius) and supports far more local jobs than Hydro Quebec.

I have run into several news articles and interviews by people who are disappointed about the vote, they all seem to be holding out hope that the project will somehow get approved without impacting the timeline. IMO there is really no quick way for the decision to be reversed. Every option I am aware of is appeal to the supreme court, go through a court proceeding, get a ruling that will direct the SEC to continue the process and then vote again, then repeat the appeal process..

Bets on what's next? NG already has a DC line built (those towers that run through Bedford/Goffstown and generally stay west of the NP line). Why not just upgrade that line (and the AC lines with it) and be done with it? If it means the northern loop is disconnected for a while, so be it, right? :)
 
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The NGrid line cant be upgraded but they have proposed widening the existing right of way and installing a second line. It also would require similar permits from VT and NH. Its completely separate from the "Coos" loop that serves Northern NH and allows export of power south so it really doesnt change the limitations in this loop. NGrid has partnered with Citizens Energy (somewhat infamous for getting free propaganda oil from Venezuela during the Chavez era) to get more support. It is far less along then the Champlain Express line through VT that already has major permits in place. Champlain Express is the project that CLF is supporting. Champlain Express was far more proactive with easements and permitting and despite starting after NP already have all the major permits in place. Lake Champlain has some significant environmental issues due to nutrient run off from agricultural sources that is making part of the lake subject to toxic bloom. Vermont has been trying to com up with the funds to clean it up but they couldnt really find any until Champlain Express offered to 200 million in funds to offset the running of the line down the lake.
 
Interesting - what prevents the NG line from being upgraded? I see now that the Coos Loop (which if I am following the map correctly roughly follows Rts 2, 16, 110, and 3 - but correct me if that's off) connects to the Eversource line by Whitefield. Was Eversource going to upgrade the Coos loop with this project? Sorry if these questions are remedial - now that it's not a done deal as I had believed, I'm really curious about the alternatives.
 
I expect a transmission engineer could get a lot more specific but the distance above the ground and between the conductors as well as the span between the towers plus all the supporting infrastructure on either end of the cable to convert the DC back to AC all limit the existing HVDC line to 1000 MW. To upgrade it substantially would require new poles with wider clearances, new cables and new converter stations. There is also a lot to be said to have two separate transmission lines so if some moron decides to go target shooting and knocks one line down (it happened a few years ago) only half the capacity is lost. The other issue is northern New England really couldn't afford to have the existing line shut down for a couple of years while it was upgraded.

If you look at Google Earth you can pretty well figure out where the Coos loop is but you are roughly correct. Eversource made the claim years ago that it would cost $450 million to upgrade the Coos loop and they wanted someone else to pay for it and was pushing for the state to pay for some of the upgrade. There was a second wind farm larger than the Granite Reliable Power farm in Millsfield that was proposed for the ridge line north of RT 26 that was shut down as there was no way to get the power out of the area. During the NP build up, NP stated that the economic mitigation of the project would include 45 million in undefined upgrades to the loop that would give some undefined increase in capacity. They would not disclose details. Eversource has been doing spot upgrades on occasion along the loop, one of them was directly above the Valley Way trail in Randolph and another one was on RT 16 just north of the RR trestle. Lines stretch as they heat up transmitting power, that means the lines sag closer to the ground so if they lift them higher than it can run a bit more power. I expect Eversource has a confidential detailed assessment on all the limitations on the line and its associated switchgear that they could use to guide the 45 Million. There were also a mysterious filing with FERC regarding a possible DC converter station on the Yale Retirement Fund property (Bayroot) at Granite Reliable Power wind farm that never was detailed out. This would be the logical place to tie in additional capacity from the new farm north of RT26. Hydro Quebec had exclusive rights to the line for 20 years so I am not sure what the new converter station would do for the project as every MW sent from the windfarm meant less power that HQ would sell.

One of the reported big choke points is the WMNF crossing along the Reel Brook Trail that crosses the AT and then runs ESE to the Lincoln NH area. NP originally was planning to widen out this right of way and add a new set of poles for NP. This is a right of way under a WMNF special use permit that would need to be revised and expanded. Many figured that would be major rallying point that would drag in national protests and AMC took the lead on showing the public the potential impact. Its been speculated that the AMC effort supported by the rest of the anti NP coalition is why NP elected to switch midstream to burying a portion of the line.

It has been speculated that once the first NP line was in place and online, Eversource would file to put in additional lines next to NP. The demand by southern New England is potentially much higher than just the 1000 MWs from NP as no New England state wants new power plants if they can put it in somewhere else. I have seen speculation that 3000 MWs is probably the short term best goal. HQ has a couple of other river basins they can flood and the ratepayers of Quebec have established that if HQ wants to grow they need to grow elsewhere in order to subsidize cheap power in Quebec. HQ is almost a nation in and of itself ,they call the shots in Quebec Province and few politicians dare push back on them especially as the vast majority of the impact is far north of the population on first nations land.

Note that the US in the 1920s and earlier had grand plans for large ponded dams in rural new england areas. Many of the largest lakes in Maine are hydro impoundments that supply peak power to southern New England. The unfortunate issue with AT hikers drowning at the crossing of the Kennebec at Caratunk is a side effect of upstream dams that are opened in mid morning to supply the gird (also the reason why there is a year round whitewater rafting industry in the area) There was a plan to develop the Androscoggin basin for much more power. There was a proposal to build a high dam in Dummer NH that would flood the river back to Errol NH and and another to build a dam in Gilead NH that would flood Shelburne NH all the way back to Gorham. The last big try was Dickey Lincoln in Maine that would flood the St John River basin that was in play in the 1970s. Its abandonment was one of the earlier major successes for the environmental movement in New England. In general the US has decided that big hydro impoundments are something they dont want in their backyard.
 
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An interesting update, Maine Governor claims Mass is moving on away from NP. http://indepthnh.org/2018/02/15/mai...may-have-already-moved-on-from-northern-pass/

The quote referencing the interaction between the two major Mass utilities as a "steel cage match" is an interesting allusion. For those who grew up in sixties and seventies, it reminds me of Chief Jay Strongbow going up against Lou Albano on Saturday morning wrestling ;)
 
The quote referencing the interaction between the two major Mass utilities as a "steel cage match" is an interesting allusion. For those who grew up in sixties and seventies, it reminds me of Chief Jay Strongbow going up against Lou Albano on Saturday morning wrestling ;)

[drift] Well, Captain Lou Albano was a manager by the time I started watching.

IMO, Northern Pass vs New England Clean Power Link is more like Professor Tanaka vs. Bob Backlund.

Society for the Protection of New Hampshire Forests is Chief Jay Strongbow jumping into the ring to apply the sleeper hold. [/drift]
 
I expect the NP back up plan is already drafted and ready to roll out, Eversource staff may be be trapped in a corporate finance strategy. I don't represent myself as a financier but as its been described to me by accountants, a project like NP is a "capital work in progress" on the balance sheet. A work in progress cost is treated differently than normal business transactions. As long as the project continues, the costs associated with it just tally in a separate register. Once Eversource declares the project dead, all the accumulated costs which reportedly total around 250 million have to be treated as a one time cost that hits the balance sheet in one year as an expense. A charge this large can upset Wall Street. Pure speculation on my part, is the management of Eversource is keeping the project going rather than taking the financial hit?. This is passing the buck to later management but its not unknown.

The backup plan to me is for NP to announce that the Mass RFP was a distraction and that the NP project as originally planned was a merchant project long before the Mass RFP so the project will continue. The administrations in both Mass and VT have both indicated that they are willing to accept NP power as green and regarded as renewable, once that happens NP power is far less costly than many of the renewable alternatives and potentially qualifies for other incentives as its green an fully dispatchable (unlike solar and to some extent wind).

I haven't heard of a massive groundswell of support in the legislature to amend the SEC law (at least yet) and IMHO, that is the only thing that is going to get the current plan approved. Yes the governor is unhappy with the results but he cant change the outcome unless he swaps out all the members of the SEC board. The court is probably trying to avoid getting dragged into the politics and if the Mass RFP gives them cover to make the need for approval less urgent they could remand it back to the SEC and let the new vote and numerous appeals run their course.
 
I can see NP as Leaping Lanny Poffo.

Making sudden fast moves all over the place with no rhyme or reason. Quick changes in direction and plans. Stopping to periodically read some nonsense from the back of a frisbee only to eventually get beat.
 
I guess they were "shocked" by the result and had not gotten their ducks in row for the "shock";). Note I don't think the SEC has actually rendered the written decision required of the statute. They just voted that they couldn't support it but I don't think they have actually issued the formal denial as I expect that denial document is going to be lengthy and require review prior to issuing. I think the agreed upon date to issue the decision is until mid March.

Realistically NP has one shot to make a a first appeal and the NH supreme court is probably not going to suffer fools gladly. In order to appeal they have to develop a fairly extensive and cogent case on why the board's actions violated the SEC process and its underlying law and administrative rules and possibly state where the SEC diverged from past precedent. I also expect that it is a sticky situation. Are they appealing that the board voted too early during the deliberative sessions or are they appealing that the vote not to issue the permit was not supported by the process? I expect the court might want to separate the issues which could mean they review the claim that the early vote before the deliberations were scheduled to be closed and prior to reviewing the last two points was in violation of the SEC rules. In that case the court after some unknown period of time would issue an opinion either supporting the early vote or remanding it back to the SEC with instructions on where they erred in administering the SEC statute. I suppose NP could file for an immediate injunction claiming harm for any delay but they havent to date. I doubt the court would grant one but if they did all it would do is send it back to the SEC to finish the process and issue the decision. If the SEC board wished they could elect to restart from scratch with all new hearings and keep lawyers in their mercedes payments for a few more years.

Note I have seen claims by various supporters of the application that there was supposed to be a "negotiation phase" not called out in the statute wherein the applicant could negotiate with the SEC and come up with alterations to the application to mitigate the concerns over the four points that have to be proven. The claim is this non mandated phase was skipped. IMHO that negotiation phase should have occurred during the public hearings prior to deliberative sessions. Even if this non mandated phase did happen I would expect that it would need to be done in public and would essentially open the public hearings again, thus keeping those Mercedes payments rolling in to those participating. In my mind even if they go with full burial, the ship has sailed, based on pushback that arose from the towns that were going to get buried lines, I think it would be hard to get them and all the other towns to support even a buried project.

Meanwhile the Mass RFP is long since awarded to another project and Eversource management gets to decide how long they want to beat the proverbial dead horse and continue on.
 
I just came back from a road trip to Wisconsin.. again those lines which are so many are so bad in these towns in was in. One has to see the size of these things up close. In Whitefield the NP would come right across RT 3 and the base station whatever it's called would be enlarged from what it is now. Totally take Whitefield down into the dumps more then it is now. Plus the buzzing on the radios etc.
 
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