Hikers knocked down by mini-avalanche on MT Washington

[dug]

Other thoughts on the Avalanche conditions.

If you are camping, you may wake up and not know what the current conditions are. There's no sign to read unless it's at the Pinkham trailhead, for example. I'm not advocating additional signage or anything, just something to think about.

Here's a story, I told a few years ago on this very site. I woke up in the Gulf of Slides one morning after a windy night, gathered up my tent and skied into the bowl to have a look around. On the way up, we passed two skiers who apparently were up the trail from us. They had already gone up, saw the conditions, and in their experienced minds it didn't look good. They were turning around, and suggested we do the same.

Since I was a relative novice, we hadn't intended to do any real skiing, so we were fine with their suggestions. We went ahead, poked around, stayed low, turned around, and skied out.

The two skiers were caught in a slide a few hours later. Against their own advice to us, they had decided to have a go. From what I later understood, while digging a pit to test the conditions the slope gave way......

 

[giggy]

or you can judge the snow yourself and decide turn back if something doesn't seem right.

common sense will go a long way - what was the weather like the night you camped out, rain, snow, odd warm ups, did a moose take a crap on the top of the tuckerman headwall - anything that will change the snowpack? dig a pit and take a look.

if it snowed a couple of inches or more than maybe the danger increased, if it was a cold clear night - might be ok to continue on????

 

[DougPaul]

The two skiers were caught in a slide a few hours later. Against their own advice to us, they had decided to have a go. From what I later understood, while digging a pit to test the conditions the slope gave way......

That is a problem--if you dig the pit safely away from slope in question, you may get an inaccurate reading. Hopefully, you get to see the same snow layers in a similar state to those on the slope. And of course, the only way to check out the entire slope is to dig pits all over it. Might ruin the skiing, tho...

common sense will go a long way

Unfortunately there are still factors that aren't obvious even to the experts. And even less obvious to the novice.

Don't forget, people who have avalanche training are more likly to get caught in one. (Seems to me there was a previous thread on this one...)

Doug

 

[sweeper]

Got to see a small slide up close.

I was skiing with a guide on the Zugspitze, in Germany, climbing the walls above the lifts to get to the umarked powder. We had just crossed under the lift that run from base of the ravine up to the lodge on the side of the mtn. I think we had cleared the lodge above when a small slide broke in front of us. The guide yelled "Kevin, follow me", and skiied INTO the slide. I had followed him for the past 4 days and didn't hesitate when he yelled, I pushed off into the slide. He yelled back "don't get in front of it." It was a couple, 300 yds to the base.
It was the Ultimate ride. WAY more fun then powder. Couldn't tell you how deep it was, but you'd have had measure it in inches and not feet. I was young and dumb at the time and won't have done it on my own and won't do it again.

That was one of my last runs, I hung up the downhill skiies shortly after, that was 24 year ago.

 

[dave.m]

There is a well known aspect of the psychology of risk that explains why people feel better about assuming risk if they dig a pit (micro) while ignoring the larger (macro) factors that would suggest higher risks. That affect is the tendancy for people to feel more comfortable about assuming risk if they feel like they have some control of the sitiuation.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1562978-1,00.html

One of the classic examples is driving in a car. Your risk of dying in a car is essentially the same whether you are driving or a passenger but most people feel safer if they are driving. Digging a pit gives a sense of control in the same way.

Another thing to be cautious about is Risk Compensation or Risk Homeostasis. While the original statement of the theory may be over stated...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_homeostasis
http://ip.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/4/2/92
... we see the basic thrust of the effect in mountaineering all the time.

Carrying an ice axe makes you more prone to climb slopes where you need an axe.

Wearing a climbing helmet makes you more prone to climb slopes with rock fall hazard (Paul Petzold was the first to make this argument that I know of).

Wearing a ski helmet invites you to ski in the woods faster.

Carrying a beacon makes you more likely to ski in avi terrain.

Getting avi training makes you more likely to ski in avi terrain.

This line of reasoning kicks off heated debate in most forums. IMO, we are only beginning to understand how we process risk assessment.