Lost Hiker on Mt Lafayette - FOUND!

[DougPaul]

The METAR observations reported by stations are a snapshot at the time of observation, defined as two minutes. So the average sustained coded wind is a two minute average leading up to the time of observation. Gusts are defined as the 10 minute peak wind, leading up to the time of observation. Unfortunately, most of the hour is missed by standard observations.

OK. Thanks.

Seems a bit hokey, but I'm only an engineer. (Electrical engineers have a well developed dicipline of sampling data...) I suppose it could be a funny trade-off between time resolution and coverage.

Doug

 

[Dr. Dasypodidae]

Lots of interesting sub-themes on this thread since my last post here.

First, this whole incident really hit home for me, as I hiked up Lafayette to welcome the New Millennium, reaching the summit just after midnight. I passed Stinkyfeet and friends who were on their way down in deteriorating conditions (they hiked up and down from the parking lot that night). About half way up the cone from Greenleaf hut my only headlamp gave out, which took me a few minutes to replenish with new batteries (I now carry three headlamps at all times!). So, I arrived on the summit a few minutes after two others who had bivied not far from me near the hut. In the time that it took me to snap a couple of flash shots, my fingers went numb, I got disoriented in the whiteout, and began heading down, but towards North Lafayette, almost 60 degrees off route (just like the ultra-running couple on Easter weekend in 2004). Fortunately, I heard the two below screaming at me that I was off route, so I was able get re-oriented, directly into a head wind of 30-40 mph. My compass was inside my parka on a string around my neck, but I did not bother to check it, what with the numb fingers, and I thought that I knew the summit area inside out, having been there over a hundred times. The 300 degree magnetic orientation for descent from the summit is now imprinted on my brain forever.

Through PVSART, I have seen a few photos, from which I think that Brian's footwear was a big problem: reasonably heavy, but single boots (what I would describe as three-season boots, athough I know a lot of really talented hikers on this board wear them all winter), which became useless once they were wet and frozen (probably explains why he was wearing mitts on his feet in his sleeping bag when found). Just the opposite of Beck Wethers (sp?) on the 1996 Everest debacle, who noted later that if he had been wearing EverestOne boots on his hands, he might still doing surgery. So, I am hoping that Brain's frostbite is not severe.

The costs of this rescue will be huge, although most of the 65 search and rescuers are volunteers and the National Guard provides helicopters gratis for practice (surprised there were any available, given the Iraq and Afghan wars). However, NH Fish & Game is really hurting financially, as they have never been fully budgeted for search and rescue, and they are not generating the income that they once did from fishing and hunting licenses (see another thread on this board concering this issue, and the proposed idea of hiking fees in the Whites [not to be confused with parking fees, which go to the USFS]).

 

[alpinista]

The hiker had a -30 degree bag with him which most likely saved his life - he was wearing 3 season hiking boots - he was found in a drainage area over by the 13 falls tent site.

All I can say is "wow"...that is truly amazing. I'm glad he had that minus-30 bag with him, impressed and amazed. I hope he has the courage to talk about his experience. It will be a fascinating story to hear and to learn from it.

And at the end of the day, I hope he gets through this relatively intact physically and emotionally. He had to have had a tough time of it out there.

 

[dr_wu002]

A friend who participated in the search on Sunday relayed the following information to us tonight.

The hiker had a -30 degree bag with him which most likely saved his life - he was wearing 3 season hiking boots - he was found in a drainage area over by the 13 falls tent site.

so, he had a pretty long 'whack. When you get about 1/2 way down Lafayette there is a steep section which probably pushed him Northeast to avoid it. He probably followed a stream which ended up parallel to Lincoln Brook Trail eventually. Hope we get more details. Any word if he lost some toes or something? I hope not. Hopefully it's just some minor damage. I'm sure he's glad to be alive though.

-Dr. Wu

 

[forestgnome]

The term "experienced hiker" has become meaningless to me. I'm truly glad this person made it, and I don't mean to hurt his feelings should he ever read this website, but it's extremely important that all who do read this understand that this person made extremely poor choices that nearly cost him his life and put SAR folks in a very deadly situation.

As DougM states, this was not a freak storm. These conditions were forecast days in advance. As w7xman states, these conditions are beyond what any human without a death wish should voluntarily enter. So, the party either did not bother to check the forecast, or did not know that such conditions would be less than enjoyable.

Another huge mistake was to continue when the other two companions decided to bail. When he made the phone calls, he stated that he didn't even know which side of the mountain was his location. He didn't bring his boots into his bag, which any "experienced" winter backpacker knows to do. Maybe at that point he was hypothermic and losing the capacity to think clearly, blah, blah, blah.

A person planning their very first winter mountain hike could be smarter than this by simply reading and heeding the available information.

Happy Trails

 

[Mike P.]

Dr. D. per regulations as I understand it, only 1/3 of the troops can be on active duty (in the field) so the people at home do like the practice..

The comment on the heavy leather boots, brings up a good point. What night be good enough on a day trip when nothing goes wrong may be inadaquate when something does go wrong.

I believe the conversion from Knots to MPH is 1.15 so 100K x 1.15 = 115 MPH

 

[expat]

Weather reports

There has been quite a bit of discussion about the weather forecast prior to the hike. There have been plenty of times when the forecast has been wrong. I generally don't change my plans based on the forecast, since there have been many times that I have had perfect weather when it was forecast to be bad, and other times when I have had to bad weather when it was supposed to be nice. This applies to every season.

If I stayed at home every time bad weather was forecast, I'd only be in the woods about half the time that I'd like. The key is being able to judge the conditions at the scene, and make the right decision. I've bailed out of a planned trip often, as a result of the conditions. It might be close to 50% of the time that I've either turned around, or changed my trip as a result. If I err in my decision, I like it to be on the conservative side.

 

[Mattl]

I agree completely with forestnome. It would be one thing if this was a freak squall that moved through and caught them off-guard. It was forecast well before, and he shouldn't have been going above treeline in weather like that. He put all those people at risk because of his mistake. Im glad he is alive, and he really is lucky he is. Im not sure how the guys on the ground even found him out there. I have done stupid things like he did he the past, luckilly not having to get rescued, but I certainly learned from them, so I guess I shouldn't be too hard on him. -Mattl

 

[grouseking]

Before we cut this guy down, I think its wise to take a look in the mirror.

We all put ourselves in danger when we hike in the mountains. No matter how prepared you are, or how docile the conditions may be, there is always a chance of something going wrong. My father stood on the top of Monadnock a couple years ago, and for what seems like no reason whatsoever, he fell down and hurt his leg. He wasn't moving or anything.....he just stood there looking around and went down. That is how fast something bad can happen, when you least expect it. The conditions that day were sunny and beautiful.

I also think you cannot judge anyone's actions. This person hiked and we hike and put ourselves in danger. Obviously he was prepared for an ordeal of a couple days in the mountains since he survived. He knew what to do...get below treeline. Anything can happen above treeline in whiteout conditions...trails can be lost very easily so it doesnt surprise me that they got separated.

As for putting other search and rescue teams in danger (I may get lots of flack here)......but it is their job and they're damn good at what they do. It is what it is....he was lost, they rescued him, no matter how sour the conditions. They are trained to do so.

There is too much uproar about this. Were there mistakes made? Some could say yes, but let us not forget that we are also avid hikers. The bottom line now is he learned from his experience and he will probably do things differently. But still, that never cuts out all of the risk.

End of story


grouseking

 

[sapblatt]

Grouseking -
very good points - I have had my share of stupid accidents, how soon we forget the great Hot Cocoa accident of 2006.

Seriously, before I read one of DougPauls posts on this thread I was (at least to myself) crucifyng this guy for not using a compass and heading downhill and west - but as Doug pointed out, that would mean going into a brutal wind and snow storm - would I have kept walking that way, or would I have sought shelter? Hard to say - my brain would tell me to go west, but conditions may well have pointed me the other way for shelter...

We do not know what we will do - read these posts and try to learn - think about the situation - hopfully we never need it, but the information could come in useful for any of us some day.

 

[DougPaul]

Before we cut this guy down, I think its wise to take a look in the mirror.

Agree 100%.

One can make all sorts of mistakes and, if luck cooperates, still have a nice day.

On the other hand, one can do everything "right", have a bit of bad luck, and have a very bad day.

[informed speculation]
In this case, the trio almost certainly knew that conditions were likely to be cold and windy (and he did have a -30F bag). So I think we can fault him for inadequate footwear.* My reading of the reports suggests that they turned back before they split up, so he probably also made a navigational error (missed the turn to Greenleaf Tr).**
[/informed speculation]

Until we have more details on the course of events, I think additional speculation becomes more and more meaningless because it becomes more and more based upon assumed details.

* He is hardly alone here--note how many threads there are of someone asking the group to approve of some marginal boot. Nature doesn't care how much your gear costs or how heavy it is--marginal capability usually means greater risk.

** As Dr D noted, he would be one of a number who have missed that turn. However, if you realize that you have missed the turn and can recognize Skookumchuck Tr, it gets you into the trees fairly quickly.


People might find it instructive (and interesting) to read "The Hall of the Mountain King" by Howard Snyder. The tale of an expedition where 7 of 12 died in a winter storm near the summit of McKinley. Snyder makes very similar comments on the nature of luck in mountaineering.

Doug

 

[bobandgeri]

.
As for putting other search and rescue teams in danger (I may get lots of flack here)......but it is their job and they're damn good at what they do. It is what it is....he was lost, they rescued him, no matter how sour the conditions. They are trained to do so.
grouseking

Okay - a little flack :>

While the National Guard and Forest Service personel may be paid to perform rescues, I am pretty sure that the members of the local S&R teams are just normal people like you and I with families and normal jobs who give up their free time to assist others when needed. Check out the web page of the Pemigewasset Valley Search and Rescue Team - you may see some familar faces.

These people are the true heros that deserve a thank you the next time you see them.

 

[Whiteman]

What would Ed do?

I recently finished Ed Veisturs' book, No Shortcuts to the Top, about climbing the world's 14 8,000 meter peaks. He got all of the peaks without oxygen, though he did use a little O2 on a couple of his many trips up Everest as a guide or on a project.

Looking back, he pointed to only one situation where he questioned his judgment on continuing on, after being talked into it by the others in his party. Many times he turned back, often with the peak just in view, but with threatening conditions, like potentially fragile conrices or worsening weather. He never had an accident, never needed to be rescued, and amazingly never had any high altitude complications. He never hesitated to err on the side of safety, for himself, his family, and his team. Getting up didn't matter if he couldn't safely get down.

He always brought wands with him, and he always found his way back even when the snow was really blowing. Wouldn't those have been handy last Saturday?

And on the weather reports, sure you can't always trust them, and sometimes the weather is better than forecast. But sometimes you just get that feeling in your bones that you can trust the report. If I were a sailor, I would heed such things as gale or hurricane warnings. I think all of us would heed (at least I hope) avalanche warnings. Things like "bridge out" we can easily fathom. -15F and 100 mph is kind of in the same category in my book.

 

[MadRiver]

Thanks for the link Bob. I thought at 52 I was a little long in the tooth to even consider volunteering, but if the group photo is any indication, maybe not.

 

[Skyclimber]

I fully agree with Grouseking!

Why is it whenever someone needs to be rescued, everyone must downplay the situation? It's not always the hikers fault. Facts get turned around, assuming the worst of the hikers incompetence before knowing the true facts about the incident? The man did not choose to be lost and turned around on the Mountain. It was a freak thing that happened, with the weather changing so quickly at treeline. The man has been through a horrible ordeal and does not need to read of all the negativity that he is receiving.

If one has never been in that situation, then one should not throw out the "what if's, that should of been done." Facts tend to get twisted around. I know first hand, how the Press and Public tend to turn things around upon the hiker, making them at fault. Back in 1992, I as well had the unfortunate, unplanned bivuoack in Winter.

When in this situation the hiker does everything possible so they can survive! In my opinion, if you do survive, then you have done everything that was right! Sure if it wasn't for the Rescue Team, this may not of happened. In the meantime, he spent two nights in the frigid cold but bottom line, he knew what to do to survive until the Rescue Team arrived.

 

[sardog1]

Thanks for the link Bob. I thought at 52 I was a little long in the tooth to even consider volunteering, but if the group photo is any indication, maybe not.

One of my favorite SAR dog handler colleagues was 63 when I met him. I know lots and lots of folks who are regularly going on missions in their mid and late 50s. If you have the SAR itch, scratch it! And if you want some contact info for the various groups, send me a PM.

 

[grouseking]

Okay - a little flack :>

While the National Guard and Forest Service personel may be paid to perform rescues, I am pretty sure that the members of the local S&R teams are just normal people like you and I with families and normal jobs who give up their free time to assist others when needed. Check out the web page of the Pemigewasset Valley Search and Rescue Team - you may see some familar faces.

These people are the true heros that deserve a thank you the next time you see them.

I highly agree. Although I am a pretty new hiker, I did recognize some of the faces. Hats off.

I was reading the PDF file that they suppliedPemi Resue Team and noticed that there is a rule on pg 2 stating

"that since PVSART is not a “First Responder” organization and due to liability issues will only respond if requested by the New Hampshire Fish & Game Department or another public safety agency that will provide umbrella liability and worker’s compensation coverage to the members of PVSART."

So that means they don't put themselves in great personal risk, unless they have support by higher trainied organizations. These people who do a tremendous job wont be out there unless someone from Fish and Game or something like the National Guard brings them along. I think thats how I understand it. So the PVSART's varied training and extensive knowledge of the area is an extremely valuable aid.

Every one is a normal person, except some have extremely demanding jobs. And a lot is expected of them. That was my only point, and I'm learning that is how life is. I definitely didn't want to sound harsh to SAR teams but I was merely stating that it is their job. When you sign up for it, it's yours.

All this being said, I've thought a lot about becoming volunteer. Someday, I think I will.

grouseking

 

[Mattl]

The issue here is not whether it's there job or not, its the situation he not only put himself in but the searchers as well. I can understand that everyone can have things happen, but because he went on a day that was extremely dangerous and had a high probability of something going wrong, it then becomes a probable situation for an injury. The winds were over 80 mph and the temperature was well below zero with falling and blowing snow. Injuries can happen anytime, I agree, but going when it is just plain insane outside (and was forecast) is causing you to have a much higher risk of getting into trouble. That then leads searchers to all be put in trouble, when even though it is there job, by you going on a day like that you are almost asking to get into trouble. -Mattl

 

[dms]

Before we cut this guy down, I think its wise to take a look in the mirror.

We all put ourselves in danger when we hike in the mountains. No matter how prepared you are, or how docile the conditions may be, there is always a chance of something going wrong. My father stood on the top of Monadnock a couple years ago, and for what seems like no reason whatsoever, he fell down and hurt his leg. He wasn't moving or anything.....he just stood there looking around and went down. That is how fast something bad can happen, when you least expect it. The conditions that day were sunny and beautiful.

I also think you cannot judge anyone's actions. This person hiked and we hike and put ourselves in danger. Obviously he was prepared for an ordeal of a couple days in the mountains since he survived. He knew what to do...get below treeline. Anything can happen above treeline in whiteout conditions...trails can be lost very easily so it doesnt surprise me that they got separated.

As for putting other search and rescue teams in danger (I may get lots of flack here)......but it is their job and they're damn good at what they do. It is what it is....he was lost, they rescued him, no matter how sour the conditions. They are trained to do so.

There is too much uproar about this. Were there mistakes made? Some could say yes, but let us not forget that we are also avid hikers. The bottom line now is he learned from his experience and he will probably do things differently. But still, that never cuts out all of the risk.

End of story


grouseking

For myself, I could not disagree more. Never, ever, in 30 years of hiking have I ever gone out with a forecast such as was the case here. The dangers set forth in the forecast were clear and unmistakeable. This fact alone creats a different situation from the "normal and usual" search and rescue.

 

[grouseking]

For myself, I could not disagree more. Never, ever, in 30 years of hiking have I ever gone out with a forecast such as was the case here. The dangers set forth in the forecast were clear and unmistakeable. This fact alone creats a different situation from the "normal and usual" search and rescue.

What can I say, I'm sick of people blaming everybody about everything. Its sickening. You hear it on the news all the time. Who cares what happens to Britney Spears kids? We don't know her, and never will.

All I'm saying is we, as humans, or at least as Americans are way too fast to point fingers, about everything. And if you are passionate enough about something, then look out, because thats when the real finger pointing starts. Its not even remotely fair to judge his situation. I went on a hike Sat, but stayed below the trees because thats all I had for protection. He went above the trees with full intentions of camping at Liberty Springs. So he had prepared for his situation. His boots might have been 3 season boots, but what are ya gonna do? Life is full of unexpected twists and turns, and I don't think we as onlookers should go out and blame others and think we could be so much better. It almost sounds like we do this because it makes us feel better about ourselves in the long run because in general, Americans are very unsure people.

A while ago I started a thread wondering if hiking was pop culture. Stepping back and looking around I think its safe to saying that blaming people is very pop culture.

I am a firm believer that the only person you can blame is yourself.

In closing, leave this guy alone.

grouseking

PS (This prob sounded like I was blaming others for blaming! But all I'm doing is trying to observe the situation from afar and it saddens me.)