Micromorts - A way to Assess Your Risk

[ChrisB]

This article describes a way to determine risk in a fairly objective manner. It is based on the micromort, the one-in-a-million chance most of us face from dying every day.

In this article the micromort is used to evaluate Covid risk. But it can be used to assess skydiving, climbing and other activities we engage in.

What is your risk profile and how does it compare with others? Let us know!

 

[Mike P.]

This article describes a way to determine risk in a fairly objective manner. It is based on the micromort, the one-in-a-million chance most of us face from dying every day.

In this article the micromort is used to evaluate Covid risk. But it can be used to assess skydiving, climbing and other activities we engage in.

What is your risk profile and how does it compare with others? Let us know!

Is there a link that doesn't require me creating a NYT log in?

 

[ChrisB]

I see it without log in. The NYT has made Covid-related coverage available to all, incl non-subscribers.

 

[maineguy]

You either have to be a subscriber or "create an account online", presumably free, which will enable you to read virus articles for free,

 

[TomK]

What is your risk profile and how does it compare with others? Let us know!

Apparantly, I have no hope...




TomK

 

[Mike P.]

You either have to be a subscriber or "create an account online", presumably free, which will enable you to read virus articles for free,

That's more than I want to do, create a touch point so I can be added to a list....

 

[bikehikeskifish]

https://10minutemail.com/ is another handy trick

Tim

 

[ChrisB]

That's more than I want to do, create a touch point so I can be added to a list....

Sorry for the link hassle. it "just works" for me (And I erase all Firefox history each time I quit Firefox. So who knows why?)

I any case, here is the interesting excerpt from the piece:

Now, if you’re infected with the virus, your odds of dying jump dramatically. Estimates of the fatality rate vary as doctors continue to learn more about this virus and how to care for people sickened by it, but let’s assume it is 1 percent for sake of this discussion. That translates into 10,000 micromorts. That risk is comparable to your chances of dying on a climb in the Himalayas if you go above 26,000 feet, where the tallest peaks, such as Everest and K2, stand (using climbing data taken between 1990 and 2006).

But that risk estimate is for the entire population, with an average age of 38. If you happen to be older, the fatality rate can be as much as 10 times higher, which is just slightly less than flying four Royal Air Force bombing missions over Germany during World War II.

Bombs Away Geezers!

 

[TCD]

Well based on the latest CDC data, that "death rate" fear number from the fear-mongering NYTimes is simply wrong:

https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-c...a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

Now if you are over 80 (and I know a few of us here are) then the risk is much higher. But for the the bulk of the population, the death rate is approximately 0.3% (similar to the seasonal flu).

 

[DayTrip]

Well based on the latest CDC data, that "death rate" fear number from the fear-mongering NYTimes is simply wrong:

https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-c...a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

Now if you are over 80 (and I know a few of us here are) then the risk is much higher. But for the the bulk of the population, the death rate is approximately 0.3% (similar to the seasonal flu).

The article says that 0.3% is the "best case" estimate, not their official estimate. If the death rate is only 0.3% doesn't that imply about 33.333 million people have contracted the virus? Are the case numbers anywhere near that right now? The CDC certainly knows far more on the subject than I do but that doesn't sound right to me. I know we haven't tested nearly as much as we could or should have but still. NYC has to be way, way worse than that and the numbers are being offset by rural areas that have not been exposed to it yet. Most of the "experts" I have seen discussing this on TV have thought the death rate to be around 1%. (the link in the article posted actually goes to a CNN article that states that same number under "Experts Push Back" indicating there are 5 scenarios - i.e. I don't think they really have a clue yet).

To quote Mark Twain "There are lies, damn lies and statistics"....

 

[ChrisB]

Well based on the latest CDC data, that "death rate" fear number from the fear-mongering NYTimes is simply wrong:

https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-c...a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-below-0-3/

I was more intrigued with the methodology suggested for interpreting risk across activities (climbing, sky diving, etc.) rather than Covid-specific veracity.

And as far as that fear mongering NYT goes, I suggest your link to a Libertarian web site implies a bit of bias itself

Stay well!

 

[TomK]

I suggest your link to a Libertarian web site implies a bit of bias itself

Since you bring it up, actually, being Libertarian implies reason and objectivity, the opposite of bias...

TomK