No more Mount Washington avalanche forecasts; possible Tucks closure

[sierra]

Being good or not at physical isolation is certainly going to vary from one individual to another. Coupled to that is individual risk assessment. Which certainly varies from one individual to the next. What might not seem risky to one may be extremely risky to another. Being hikers, climbers and skiers folks here some more than others more than likely have a higher threshold to risk tolerance. Unfortunately right now that could lead to a very slippery slope. Thinking that one may be able to fly in under the radar is IMO very selfish and completely ignorant to the fact that they are potentially endangering others.

At some point people have to go out and get it. That's the only way to build up a population with immunities. You cant hide forever.

 

[DougPaul]

I think that is the most important factor. Both supermarkets in my area open at 6 for senior citizens (and I am very senior ) and I have found them practically empty at that time. Not only fewer people in store, but also has been deep cleaned overnight.

Also in the senior group--tried that and I had to wait in a 40 minute line at my favorite supermarket. On the way home (~8am by now) I scouted out a different supermarket and found no line.

Maybe I just need to frequent less popular supermarkets...

Doug

 

[JoshandBaron]

At some point people have to go out and get it. That's the only way to build up a population with immunities. You cant hide forever.

It's not the only way. I've never had measles but I'm immune to it.

 

[TCD]

Obviously getting exposed is the only way to develop immunity **right now**.

There will probably eventually be a vaccine. Experts say 12-18 months.

I think the point is obvious. Keeping the economy shut down for 12-18 months waiting for a vaccine will kill a whole lot more people than COVID19 will kill.

 

[OldEric]

At some point people have to go out and get it. That's the only way to build up a population with immunities. You cant hide forever.

There is little evidence that "getting" it provides long term immunity. In fact there seems to be more evidence to the contrary - reinfection and/or reactivation seems possible.

 

[skiguy]

At some point people have to go out and get it. That's the only way to build up a population with immunities. You cant hide forever.

OK...you first then! Only my opinion but this Virus seems quite dynamic. I’m no epidemiologist but taking a purely Darwinian approach to this seems rather simplistic in logic.

 

[JoshandBaron]

There is little evidence that "getting" it provides long term immunity. In fact there seems to be more evidence to the contrary - reinfection and/or reactivation seems possible.

Those "reinfections" are being attributed to poor testing.

https://gimletmedia.com/shows/science-vs/94hww45/coronavirus-can-you-get-it-twice

 

[Tom_Murphy]

Keeping the economy shut down for 12-18 months waiting for a vaccine will kill a whole lot more people than COVID19 will kill.

I am very worried about the economy; family members have been laid off and my company is hurting.

That said, how does a second Great Depression kill more people than the virus? We have much stronger social safety net in this country than we had 100 years ago.

 

[TCD]

how does a second Great Depression kill more people than the virus? We have much stronger social safety net in this country than we had 100 years ago.

Not starvation, which is what the "safety net" can help prevent. Opioids and Alcohol.

 

[DayTrip]

I am very worried about the economy; family members have been laid off and my company is hurting.

That said, how does a second Great Depression kill more people than the virus? We have much stronger social safety net in this country than we had 100 years ago.

Agree, maybe not actual deaths but the lives of millions of people are being permanently wrecked by the economic shutdown. The various safety nets will help mitigate the damage but it won't be 100%. And that is before we even take into account the ramifications of all these actions on the national debt, the damage to already unhealthy state and local budgets, etc. Anyone who thinks this money is simply a grant or a giveaway will be sorely disappointed in the coming years.

 

[NHClimber]

Those "reinfections" are being attributed to poor testing.

https://gimletmedia.com/shows/science-vs/94hww45/coronavirus-can-you-get-it-twice

Correct. If you listen to the research physicians, they will tell you that once you have the antibodies you are good to go. There is no re-infection issue. This is basic science and there is nothing about this coronavirus that is different in this regard.

 

[ChrisB]

Correct. If you listen to the research physicians, they will tell you that once you have the antibodies you are good to go. There is no re-infection issue. This is basic science and there is nothing about this coronavirus that is different in this regard.

Not quite true.

The Covid-19 virus is mutating and appears that occurs on average about every 7 days.

To date the proteins responsible for grafting on to and penetrating healthy human cells have not been altered in any significant way. But...

If a mutation occurs that is beneficial to the virus we might end up with strains of the Covid virus: some responsive to a vaccine and others not. This would be identical to the state of flu virus vaccines that need to be tweaked every year to remain efficacious.

Also, I have not read anywhere that there is proof that reinfection is impossible. Too early to tell is what I've seen in print.

 

[B the Hiker]

Totally agree with this. From my house I can easily drive 3 hours one way and back home on the same tank of gas, no stops, crossing as many as 3 different states along the way and hike somewhere isolated that I enjoy with minimal or no social interaction (maybe I see people at the trail head or on trail that I can easily avoid).

Last year a buddy of mine was hiking on a nice spring day up in the Whites. Great trail conditions. Experienced hiker, responsible. But then his number came in, and somehow he broke his leg. Next thing he knew, he was being carried by a small army of rescuers, then an ambulance, then he was in a New Hampshire ER.

 

[TCD]

Not quite true.
The Covid-19 virus is mutating and appears that occurs on average about every 7 days.
To date the proteins responsible for grafting on to and penetrating healthy human cells have not been altered in any significant way. But...
If a mutation occurs that is beneficial to the virus we might end up with strains of the Covid virus: some responsive to a vaccine and others not. This would be identical to the state of flu virus vaccines that need to be tweaked every year to remain efficacious.
Also, I have not read anywhere that there is proof that reinfection is impossible. Too early to tell is what I've seen in print.

Yes, we still have a lot to learn about this new virus. But just an editorial note about the flu: It's not really the case that the vaccine remains efficacious. It is correct that it is tweaked every year, but its efficacy varies widely from year to year. That is because the tweaking is based on a "best guess" of which strains of flu virus will become prevalent in the coming (future) year. Sometimes the guess is close to right, and the vaccine may be 75% effective. Other times the guess is way off, and the vaccine is 15% effective (like a couple years ago when the US had 80K flu deaths).

The best sports analogy I can think of for the flu vaccine is a soccer goalie trying to guess which side of the net the penalty kick is coming to. Sometimes they guess right, and make a save. Other times they jump to one side of the net, but the ball comes to the other side.

 

[DayTrip]

Last year a buddy of mine was hiking on a nice spring day up in the Whites. Great trail conditions. Experienced hiker, responsible. But then his number came in, and somehow he broke his leg. Next thing he knew, he was being carried by a small army of rescuers, then an ambulance, then he was in a New Hampshire ER.

And that could just as easily happen right here on my front lawn.....

 

[skiguy]

And that could just as easily happen right here on my front lawn.....

Well at least then you might be able to crawl to your local Hospital rather then putting MRS at risk.

 

[Mike P.]

Well at least then you might be able to crawl to your local Hospital rather then putting MRS at risk.

I believe the movie quote from The Glimmer Man is (I only shot you in one foot, hobble to a hospital)

 

[richard]

And that could just as easily happen right here on my front lawn.....

Not quite as easily. I think it’s a lot more risky hiking in the mountains than it would be hiking across your front yard.

 

[Mike P.]

Not quite as easily. I think it’s a lot more risky hiking in the mountains than it would be hiking across your front yard.

That would be a generalization at best.

Depending on your neighborhood, local traffic, road design, and crime, you may very well be safer in the woods. I've lived in a quiet neighborhood that still had a house hit by a car & had a sibling hit a house.

(After knocking)

I've sustained more bee stings in my yard, the only stitches I've received was as a cub scout vaulting over a fence in the yard. Jammed and sprained fingers playing basketball in my yard and in gyms. By far, the most common injury I've had are sprained / fractures and avulsions of foot and ankle bones. The majority were from playing basketball, with at least one playing indoor soccer and a couple playing VB.

Hiking injuries at this point are one avulsion of the foot on an eroded and muddy section of trail on Hurricane in the ADK. Since then, they have rerouted the trail away from that area. That would be in 28 years of hiking, add another 20 years of hunting in fields and woods without injury. Add 4 nose fracture/dislocations, one bicycling, two in backyards playing sports and one playing BB. More tick bites fishing than hiking in NH.

Good thing I stopped playing BB and soccer.

 

[richard]

That would be a generalization at best.

Depending on your neighborhood, local traffic, road design, and crime, you may very well be safer in the woods. I've lived in a quiet neighborhood that still had a house hit by a car & had a sibling hit a house.

(After knocking)

I've sustained more bee stings in my yard, the only stitches I've received was as a cub scout vaulting over a fence in the yard. Jammed and sprained fingers playing basketball in my yard and in gyms. By far, the most common injury I've had are sprained / fractures and avulsions of foot and ankle bones. The majority were from playing basketball, with at least one playing indoor soccer and a couple playing VB.

Hiking injuries at this point are one avulsion of the foot on an eroded and muddy section of trail on Hurricane in the ADK. Since then, they have rerouted the trail away from that area. That would be in 28 years of hiking, add another 20 years of hunting in fields and woods without injury. Add 4 nose fracture/dislocations, one bicycling, two in backyards playing sports and one playing BB. More tick bites fishing than hiking in NH.

Good thing I stopped playing BB and soccer.

. I think that the terrain alone would be more dangerous especially if you’re not more careful. If you slip or trip, the chance of a more severe injury are much greater.