Private Campgrounds can be open in NH

[sierra]

Speculation on my part is most campgrounds have gone to the long term camper model where the majority of the campsites are rented out for the season. Yes they may have transient sites at the fringes of the campground but the prime spots and revenue is in their pocket prior to the start of the season. If there isnt not a reasonable expectation that a seasonal camper is not going to have access to a site, then many will elect not to lease a site or at a minimum will seek sort of cost break. Thus the effort to get the campgrounds open.

My friend has a seasonal site and your theory is pretty damn close. The campground he uses is mostly seasonal sites. My friend called them and they are open for them, not for any others. They in fact would probably go under if they kept out the seasonal, my friend even told me, if they don't let me in, I'm not paying. At that campground its 3 grand a summer, so yes that's the main revenue base.

 

[bikehikeskifish]

more delivery options and everyone seems to be taking full advantage of that. The cars parked in resident spots haven't moved in weeks. The vast majority of traffic is trucks and delivery services.

OK, that makes some sense. Thank you. It was not clear to me what you meant originally by "infrastructure" (but then again, I never get delivery myself... can't easily find a Lyft or an Uber either, unless I am at the airport, or already in Manchester.)

As hikerbrian points out, MA still has 1500 new cases a day. New Hampshire has about 1500 total. Granted, major population (density) differences exist.

Tim

 

[Mike P.]

OK, that makes some sense. Thank you. It was not clear to me what you meant originally by "infrastructure" (but then again, I never get delivery myself... can't easily find a Lyft or an Uber either, unless I am at the airport, or already in Manchester.)

As hikerbrian points out, MA still has 1500 new cases a day. New Hampshire has about 1500 total. Granted, major population (density) differences exist.

Tim

I think the other thing you'll find some of is the number of tests being administered also. Testing going on now in NY is finding a fairly decent percentage of people being tested for antibodies had Covid-19 and never sought treatment. I suspect some of those who embrace the "Live Free or Die" motto may get tested.

 

[peakbagger]

NH is discussing the roll out for restaurants, when they pull the trigger, will be initially be outdoor seating only, 6' minimum space between tables, accessible sanitation stations and group size less than 10 with employee temperature checks prior to start of shift. Next step is interior seating with same spacing requirements.

They have not really got into safe restrooms. The states approach to date is shut down the permanent facilities and switch to porta potties.

I personally am going to stay away from interior seating for awhile unless the facility does not have AC. There are some observations that aerosol size droplets are being spread from a carrier for longer distances by AC units. If makes sense if the carrier is located near the units return air section. Large HVAC systems for many healthcare facilities and some large public facilities like public transportation were upgraded years ago to include UVC sources in the ductwork to cut down on potential Tuberculosis and other airborne pathogen transmission but its highly unlikely small restaurant systems will have a UVC system and even if they did, the tubes are probably not maintained. The typical window unit or the more modern minisplits definitely do not have this capability (I think an entrepreneur could probably make a buck adding a retrofit UVC section on a typical minisplit and if they could get them into rapid production) With the right length tube, a ballast, cardboard and duct tape I could rig up a serviceable unit. Of course UVC tubes are probably not stocked in abundance so demand would rapidly strip supply.

Looks like a new thread to start. Safe Places to eat in the Whites. Tailgating is looking better and better to me.

 

[peakbagger]

UVC is a specific narrow band of UV produced by specialized fluorescent tubes or LEDs, The commercial UVC units are just a rack of tubes mounted across a cross section of a duct so that all the air being discharged from the duct has gone past the tubes at a certain concentration. Generally an AC unit is not cooling all the time, the airflow is generally recirculated with possibly some outdoor air introduced but most systems just cycle the indoor air around and around. In the outdoors there is no re circulation, the assumption is the wind is bringing in fresh air diluting the aerosols. The concentration of UVC in these units are far higher then one would get in sunlight. The units have to be interlocked so that if the tubes need to be accessed the sources turn off. Skin burns and eye damage can occur if exposed. Anyone who has used a Steripen water treatment is using UVC to kill pathogens in the water to be treated. Its also used for larger water treatment systems but has its limitations as the water filters out the UVC. Sunlight does not do it unless someone relives an old Star Trek Episode and flies into the sun to kill it.

Things will never be absolutely safe unless the virus mutates its way out of existence, some small portion of the population with compromised immune systems will have to stay locked up until a vaccine is worked out and herd immunity has developed. Even then like the flu, some portion of the population will die every year even with a vaccine and approved treatments. At some point impacts to society during this lock down will exceed the risks with trying to reopen society.

 

[DayTrip]

What I'd love to know is, Who is getting the virus RIGHT NOW? MA still has 1500 new cases/day. Who are these people? Essential workers? Healthcare workers? Family of previously infected individuals? What is the correlation between stringency of social distancing and probability of infection?

I can't speak for everywhere but in my area of NE CT it is still quite common to see people out in public places without masks or gloves in areas with people (such as gas stations, grocery stores, etc). Yesterday I got gas at the Cumberland Farms closest to my house and nobody had a face mask on and I only saw one person using gloves. I didn't go inside but a steady stream of people went in and out with no PPE. An EMT driver actually went briefly inside and came out with no PPE at any point. Despite all the fear and warnings I think a lot of people still think this is being blown out of proportion. Add that mind set to a densely populated area and I could see why cases are still growing.

If I'm not mistaken MA is also doing a lot more testing than other states in New England so they may just be doing a better job of accurately capturing cases.

 

[bikehikeskifish]

It will be interesting to see, once a cheap, accurate and fast test is available, how many had it and never really knew. I flew on business to Los Angeles around Valentine's Day, and my boss and I both picked up a cold of sorts from a colleague out there. Took me 3-4 weeks to kick it. It was never really bad enough to slow me down. I have been wondering now since mid March if I actually had the virus...

Tim

 

[TCD]

Don't know if this picture will show up. This is Massachusetts COVID19 deaths as of a couple days ago. Obviously the emphasis needs to be on protecting the elderly.

 

[sierra]

Don't know if this picture will show up. This is Massachusetts COVID19 deaths as of a couple days ago. Obviously the emphasis needs to be on protecting the elderly.

View attachment 6389

Holy Cow that is an amazing graph. I really feel for the elderly in Commercial homes, basically sitting ducks.

 

[DayTrip]

Yeah, the data coming out of nursing homes/assisted living and the like is really depressing. More than half of the reported deaths in MA are related to those facilities.

When I was young, my dad's father was suffering from Alzheimer's and we would go over visit him a couple days a week at the nursing home. I'm sure there were many families doing the same thing was their loved ones nowadays. Tragic

The worst part is these people are not being allowed to really visit. They're not even allowed in the building. There has been more than a few heart wrenching stories on the news of people dying alone in isolation because loved ones were prevented access. Not sure how that is legally possible. It probably varies from state to state too I guess. You'd think you could sign a release of liability or something. It's hard to imagine a scenario where I'd let my wife die like that and not be there holding her hand regardless of my health status.

 

[TCD]

Yes the isolation is a bit sad, but it's the best way to protect that age group.

Tidbit: In Florida, the state mandated that virus positive patients be kept away from nursing homes and senior centers. In NY, conversely, the state mandated that nursing homes must accept virus positive patients. You can look up the difference in deaths between the two states.

Nursing homes could do a lot more to promote video visits, such as via Zoom. It would be really easy to do that in the nursing home environment. Sure, the families could do that, but I think it would be good for the institutions to conduct outreach, volunteer to set it up, etc.. It's not hard, but it's new for many families.

We were originally scheduled to visit my mother-in-law in Florida, to celebrate her 90th birthday (Today! Hurray for Mom!). Obviously we canceled the trip some time ago; we are having two Zoom parties today (one with neighbors, the second one with family) and are looking forward to it.

 

[DougPaul]

If HVAC can spread it, can't the wind as well? What about having fans outside? With a 1 mph breeze, it takes under 5 seconds to travel 6'. And sure, UV light might kill it, but what about at night? We established early on in this that if places are open, a lot of people will go because if it wasn't safe - why would it be open?

I'm sure the wind is a factor. When I am near someone outside, I position myself so the wind is blowing at a right angle to the line between us so that our exhalation plumes blow away from both of us. (In other words, avoid being downwind of anyone else.) If you can feel the air blast coming off a runner or a cyclist, you know that there are exhaled particles in the eddies...

The 6 foot distance is not magic--the virus-containing particles do not drop dead just after traveling 5 ft 11 inches... In general, the farther you are, the safer you are.

As others have noted, the far UV (UV-C) required to kill microorganisms damages humans too.

Doug

 

[DougPaul]

Don't know if this picture will show up. This is Massachusetts COVID19 deaths as of a couple days ago. Obviously the emphasis needs to be on protecting the elderly.

View attachment 6389

These data (and a lot more) for MA can be found at https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting. Click on the "COVID-19 Dashboard" for today's date. It is updated daily.

I haven't checked, but hopefully other states are also publishing similar data. (I've been tracking the numbers for my town (from the town website), MA (from the above), all states (from covidtracking.com), the US (from the CDC), and countries around the world (from the WHO) and wrote software to plot them. (A plot of the new cases in New Zealand or Australia is sobering. They have done a **far** better job of controlling the virus than we have...)

Doug

 

[Mike P.]

Same in CT, At one point they were looking at a system were they would move residents so you had Covid and Non-Covid homes. Staffing them is an issue. No one can vist for my wife's birthday, she and the kids went to her Mom's place which is on the first floor and waved from a distance at her window.

They have a better sense of pride than a correctional facility, however, infection rates and spacing and congestion are pretty similar. (I used to joke with my daughter that was my retirement plan if she ever brought a bad boyfriend home.... ) Many unnamed features in the Whites and in ME.... Also has me thinking about Guy Waterman's last day too. (OMG, I got to get off the keyboard and go HIKING!)

 

[TCD]

Of interest regarding state-to-state variation:

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/cor...results-compare-william-bennett-seth-leibsohn

(Read this for the facts and data, even if you ignore the writers opinion on media issues.)

HUGE mistakes were made in NY early on: Not quarantining international travelers (such as the health care worker who returned from Iran (!)); vocally encouraging the continued use of the subways, and the celebration of the lunar new year; and mandating the entry of COVID19 positive patients into nursing homes with frail elderly. This is why NY has over 40% of the nation's deaths.

Due to the time lag for outcomes, we learn a lot about what was "good policy" and what was "bad policy" when we look back at data a couple months later.

Now as states begin to reopen, we are entering another "experiment." Of course there are extreme voices saying that "everyone is going to die!" if we open too early; and there are extreme voices saying that "everyone is going to die!" if we open too late. But if you ignore those voices, there's room for a broad range of reasonable positions about how, and how soon, to open a state's economy. We will learn a lot about what works and what doesn't when we look back around mid-June, and compare results from Georgia, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc..

 

[Daniel Eagan]

I live in New York City. My friends are dying. It happens very fast. Friends my age, older, younger, gone. Sometimes as little as five days.

So I am practicing social distancing. I've refrained from hiking. (All the trails within 60 miles are closed anyway.) I wear a mask when shopping. I believe the scientists and doctors who are warning us.

I don't believe this is the time to blame people for getting sick.

The irony is, if the lockdown works people will use that as proof that COVID-19 isn't dangerous.

 

[skiguy]

I live in New York City. My friends are dying. It happens very fast. Friends my age, older, younger, gone. Sometimes as little as five days.

So I am practicing social distancing. I've refrained from hiking. (All the trails within 60 miles are closed anyway.) I wear a mask when shopping. I believe the scientists and doctors who are warning us.

I don't believe this is the time to blame people for getting sick.

The irony is, if the lockdown works people will use that as proof that COVID-19 isn't dangerous.

Thankyou for posting this. Sorry for your loss. I also know people in your area that have died from the Virus. Many of my friends that live in your region are taking this very seriously. Godspeed.

 

[bikehikeskifish]

I know this is a politically charged subject, and civil discourse is welcome, but kindly avoid the blatant, cheap shots - they don't really add any value and they cause some members to take offense. Cheap shots include

* Character attacks on leaders
* Disparaging comments about the political slant of sources

Do, however, feel free to bring up alternate policy ideas and cite alternate sources to make your (counter) point.

Thanks,
Tim

 

[hikerbrian]

These data (and a lot more) for MA can be found at https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting. Click on the "COVID-19 Dashboard" for today's date. It is updated daily.

I too have been following the MA dashboard. I have to admit, I'm amazed at the performance of the US healthcare establishment, and MA in particular. In the face of an unprecedented global pandemic, at the height of the surge, MA continues to be utilizing only about 50% of max capacity with respect to hospital beds and ICU beds. Current hospitalizations have been stable below 4000 for more than a week now. I donated some masks to a doctor friend a couple of weeks ago, and she said they don't need them in Boston. The deaths are tragic, but so far they are not a result of an over-taxed healthcare system. To me, this is remarkable.

We still don't know how this will end. Australia, Germany, and South Korea are the standouts in terms of low numbers of deaths per capita. But Just about the entire rest of the western world has fared worse than the US (so far). Of course, the US is a big country - NY state has fared worse than almost any other country in the world, as has MA, while many rural states (including NH) have fared better than any other western democracy. I suspect this is a result of multiple undetected nucleating events in NY and MA in early Feb, which were disastrous when combined with public transportation, population density, and a lack of widespread testing. But that is conjecture at this point.

This reminds me vaguely of $5.00 gas. I recall years ago listening to analysts say that when gas hit $5/gal, the entire US would implode. Obviously that did not happen. In this case, in the face of an unprecedented global pandemic, with a unique president, with one of our greatest adversaries (China) having actively withheld critical pandemic information, and another of our adversaries possibly existing in a leadership vacuum (N. Korea), the US continues to carry on. Amidst all of this, my 401k is down 13% YTD (i.e. who cares). This, to me, also is remarkable. This is not to minimize the heartbreaking losses many have suffered. It is to spotlight the resiliency of the country as a whole. So far.

This will be an interesting story, if/when the pieces of the puzzle are revealed. I do hope the positive trends continue and that before too long all of us can go back into the woods, beyond our own backyards.

 

[DougPaul]

The irony is, if the lockdown works people will use that as proof that COVID-19 isn't dangerous.

Or they will decide that the lockdown or other measures are no longer needed. (And if protective measures are terminated it will most likely explode again...)

The ~2 week delay between exposure and hospitalization also makes it hard for many to connect actions and consequences. (The (unchecked) doubling time for cases of this virus is ~3 days in a naive population.)

Fortunately we are getting better at treating it.

Doug