Strange Pattern to This Winter's Fatalities in the Whites

[Peter Miller]

The four people who have died in the Whites this winter were experienced hikers, very physically fit, and moderately well equipped for survival. This departs from the historic fatality pattern described in "Not Without Peril".

I hope there will be a thoughtful follow up study of these deaths. Are there common threads? If so, what are they, and how can we better educate the hiking community regarding them?

In three of the deaths, there seems to have been an underestimation of the severity of impending conditions. But that can happen any winter in the Whites, and in past decades the more naive hikers were the ones that succombed. This year's deaths are an aberration.

Yes, northern New England has had many severe weather days this winter - I know because I've been out hiking almost every day. But that is not the principal explanation. There are other factors at work here. I believe inquiry can unearth them.

This is a tragic situation. "No man is an island" is not a cliche. Every deceased hiker leaves loved parents, spouses, children, siblings, friends, and colleagues behind, who will be burdened with the whys and what ifs for years afterward, likewise the grief. For the deceased hikers, there are no more trails to explore, no more summits to surmount, no more natural wonders to behold, no more mind/body exhilaration.

These four hikers most likely were caring individuals who looked forward to lots more hiking adventures. So what overruled sound judgement?

Peter Miller

 

[Periwinkle]

So what overruled sound judgement?

Who is to say whether sound judgment was overruled? Will we ever know every decision made by the people in question?

I just hate Monday morning quarterbacking. You said yourself that you've been out there hiking all winter. What if it were you? Your family left behind? Would you want us assuming you had made some gross error in judgment?

Not to be judgmental myself here. Really. I truly wish we could all learn from these experiences, do it better, have one bit of good come from such tragic loss. You have many fine points, Pete. I'm all for sharing details and learning from experience, but I think we should leave the judgments to God. No offense intended. Just my humble opinion.

 

[weatherman]

Funny Peter, I was thinking that same thought myself today. The scientist in me wants to say that it is just a combination of weird weather this year and volume of people who have taken to winter hiking, though those that perished this year were probably up there last year and previously. But I think it must be mainly a combination of those. Perhaps the gear that people now have to keep them comfy makes them a bit more willing to push the envelope? Look forward to hearing more ideas. And I won't second-guess anybody- almost been there myself way too many times to do that.

 

[snowshoe]

Dont forget this was a colder winter than average as well as being strange weather patterns. That could have played a major role as well.

 

[maineguy]

Gone are the days when people hiked for the sheer joy of it. Now it seems that everyone has a list. More people are accomplishing exploits like all 4ks in one winter (or one week), all the peaks in 3 days, hut to hut traverses, pemi traverses in winter, etc etc etc. This, I fear, will only get more extreme.

To accomplish these feats requires the envelope be pushed, sometimes a lot. The result can be death, but not necessarily for these super hikers. While those who accomplish remarkable feats usually are so fit they survive, some people who try to emulate them do not. And by emulate, I don't mean duplicate. Some people will try to bag more peaks than they can handle or hike a greater distance.

This is not to place any blame. I just think that it is human nature.

And just as an aside. I personally know one of these supermen, and greatly respect his accomplishments.

 

[Grumpy]

Emotions probably are too raw, yet, to deal with this subject clinically. But Peter Miller’s question is an important one that needs to be broached and examined honestly at some point.

The hope is to learn what lessons we can so that repeats of this unhappy season may be avoided in the future. It would not honor the memory of those who died to simply dismiss them as victims of statistical probability resulting from increased hiker traffic in the mountains during winter, and of fluke weather patterns, or of "cultural" pressures.

In the meantime our hearts must go out to the friends and families of those who have perished in the hills during recent months.

G.

 

[SherpaKroto]

My .02: with more winter hikers, trails get packed out more frequently, allowing hikers to get further away from safety. As conditions deteriorate, it takes longer to get back, and there is a longer period for the conditions to worsen. The further away, the more distance to be covered, the more possibilities to take a wrong turn, the more serious the consequences. Being 1/2 mile off route is much more serious when you are 10 miles from the highway than when you are 2 miles. every step makes it worse.

One other thought. When I first started winter hiking many years ago (1978), I always kept to a 4 person team rule. As I've gotten more experience, I seem to have all but forgotten that personal rule. That may be a big mistake, and I think I need to rethink that, particularly when above treeline.

Each one of these tragedies has given me much food for thought. I am so saddened by the loss that our community has seen this winter. I can only hope that it will not continue.

 

[audrey]

I don' t think we're being judgemental in wanting to know what went wrong. When I heard the story last night, that the Coxes had become disoriented, I immediately thought they must not have had a compass. Though I've never been in trouble, through caution, skill, or luck, I have to wonder: if I'd been with them, would I have seen trouble coming early enough, or would I have been able to get out of trouble when it hit.

This tragedy hits me even harder than Ken Holmes's, because it's a trip I'd be more apt to be doing, not hunkering down at Guyot on the coldest day of the year.

I hope Mr. Cox gets around to giving details. Mohamed's really got his work cut out for him with the next issue of Appalachia.

 

[Peter Miller]

Reiterating the Question

I do believe this fatality pattern deserves study. There is a book waiting to be written here by someone who has the talent and time to thoroughly research these deaths.

As a long-time hiker and hiking advocate, I am concerned by this winter's deaths in the Whites. I am concerned there are factors within contemporary "hiking culture" that obscure good decision making. I could hypothesize, but I'd prefer to wait until these deaths are researched more.

Yes, this winter has been more savage, on the whole, than the half dozen or so previous ones. But from a long term perspective, it has not been that unusual. I recall more brutal winters in the 1970's. The extreme conditions that caused this year's hypothermia-related fatalities (including, perhaps, the one in Huntington Ravine) were accurately forecasted in advance. There was no mystery as to what was coming down the pike.

My hiking mentors taught "respect nature's fury," "study weather patterns for several years before hiking above treeline in winter," "carry Everest-worthy gear," "assume the worst, and pack accordingly." "The mountain will still be there tomorrow. Live to hike another day."

I believe this timeless advice could have prevented this year's fatalities. I would like to better understand why and how it wasn't heeded by these individuals. I'm not interested in casting judgement. I'm concerned about trends in contemporary hiking culture that may be prompting excessive risk taking. I feel this matter deserves reflective discussion.

Peter Miller

 

[Paul_Bear]

Most accidents have a chain of events, all contributing to the outcome. Throw in a little bad luck and things can get out of hand quickly.

With the huge number of winter hikers these days, the number of accidents is thankfully small.

It's easy to see a few things that may be factors in accidents.

1. Weather. While this winter wasn't particularly hard by historical standards, for a few weeks it was colder than many recent years. If you've only been winter hiking in the last decade it's possible you've not seen how bad the weather can be. A low snow year such as this winter also allows easier access to the backcountry. Also, many winter hikers seem to be day hikers only which could cause them to underestimate what's required to spend an unplanned night out.

2. Increased number of hikers. This allows most trails to be packed out most of the time allowing much quicker access to areas far from the road. This also allows small groups of 1,2,3 people to summit peaks they may not have if trail breaking was required. Also, this may give a false sense of security that other parties will be around to help in case of trouble.

3. Parties travelling with minimal gear. If you want to go fast, you generally need to travel light. This is a tough one to call as the more gear you carry to survive a bivy, the more likely you'll have to bivy. Speed certainly can be an element of safety. There was a time, where you saw many people carry stoves, sleeping bags, etc on a day hike just in case. This year not only did I often see people without snowshoes, but I've even passed a couple of folks hiking without a pack. It's a question of how much margin you want in case of trouble.

 

[Mark]

I think this is a great topic to raise here, not to second guess those who lost their lives, but to remind the rest of us of the risks in winter hiking.

I have posted reports on this board about how, in winter, things can go from good to bad to worse very, very quickly. Conditions deteriorate, fatigue and hypothermia set in, and judgment becomes impaired. It’s potentially a rapid death spiral from there unless we get out quickly.

In warmer weather there is a lot more room for error. With easy access to the mountains and the promise from hi tech gear, I fear some may be lulled into a false sense of security with winter hiking. However, even the fittest, best equipped and most experienced hikers lost their lives to the elements this past winter.

Please, please let this be a lesson to all of us.

I have often looked to these boards as a source of education. I think potential and novice winter hikers come here to learn. Many experienced hikers here have shared knowledge and tips to make me a better winter hiker. For this reason, I really hate it when someone posts a trip report on how they did a 20-mile solo hike with just a day pack and no overnight gear, wearing only sandals. Readers respond with awe and admiration at such an accomplishment. I want to respond that this hiker is one very lucky SOB. One change in the weather or a turned ankle half way into the hike, and we could well have been reading on how they had to fly this hikers remains out by chopper. One can’t count on good luck as a prerequisite to surviving a hike. I’m afraid other less lucky readers will read trip reports such as these and be inspired to give it a go themselves. In winter, we need to give ourselves a much wider margin for error. I don’t admire, and certainly am not inspired by, someone who plays chicken with Nature and wins.

I will be the first to admit that I have not always been the smartest, most well-prepared hiker. I look back on early hikes and now realize how stupid or ill-prepared I was. I realize that I got lucky and survived, but the lesson I hope to pass on to others is to not be as foolish or brazen as I was. With the goals to “finish the list” or even just to make the summit, we are often faced with pushing beyond our limits and entering that zone where one small bad factor can literally push us over the brink.

I understand the thrill of taking some risks, but at what cost? Is it really more fulfilling to know that we dodged a bullet? Personally, when I look back and realize where my judgment was impaired or I just made some really stupid decision, I am not fulfilled by my accomplishment. I’m embarrassed by it. I know many thrill seekers will disagree with me on this. I fear that many posters don’t enjoy a hike unless they know they cheated death in some big or small way.

Until recently, I had never failed to complete a hike to an attempted summit. But when I finally did have to turn back, I got home and thought, “You know – it’s no big deal.” Perhaps we could have made it if we pushed on. Perhaps they would still be looking for our corpses. But at least I am still around to attempt the summit again this year.

 

[Turnbill]

I think Sherpa hit the nail on the head when he mentioned the team rule. With the exception of the Coxes, I believe all these hikers were solo. I'm not trying to second guess their decision to do this, as I have done it myself many, many times. However, it gives me pause to think about how a simple mistake can be magnified when you there is no one else there to either give a second opinion or help out. That's one lesson I'll take away from this winter's tragedies.

 

[Jim lombard]

The Team rule is a good idea as long as somebody in the group has good sense. I tend to want to push it beyond what conditions allow but fortunately I hike with somebody who always has the good sense to turn back. Twice this winter we've had to turn back just shy of summits in bad conditions (Lafayette and Monroe) both times it was his idea to call it a day.

 

[Silverback]

There is an axiom among roofers that the most experienced roofer is the most likely one to fall off. The theory is that they become so comfortable up on a roof they tend to forget that they are, in fact, on a roof. It's like when we drive the same road every day and don't notice the new stop sign that was put up, because we are so "familiar" with the route, we go on auto pilot.

I have no idea what happened in these tragedies, so I can not (nor would I) pass judgment on what the root cause was. However, there is, perhaps, a lesson to be learned for those of us who consider ourselves "experienced hikers". We must always be vigilant, no matter how many times we enter the wilderness, because some day that new stop sign will be put up, or one day we forget where we are and just "walk right off the roof".

Just my cent and a half.

 

[Rob S]

There is an axiom among roofers that the most experienced roofer is the most likely one to fall off. The theory is that they become so comfortable up on a roof they tend to forget that they are, in fact, on a roof. It's like when we drive the same road every day and don't notice the new stop sign that was put up, because we are so "familiar" with the route, we go on auto pilot.

Very well stated, Silverback. I believe this is often true in all aspects of our lives. Thanks for your post, I know I will be paraphrasing your roofer axiom often.

 

[Puma concolor]

In the last couple of years, the bar has definitely been raised in the "Can you top that?" department. From that perspective, it is hardly surprising that we have had a winter like this. Maine Guy alludes to this phenomenon in his post. Record-making and peakbagging have their place, but it has also lowered the guard of many folks who are perhaps somewhat less fit and less experienced than some of the more immensely-talented pace setters. If the White Mountain 48 can be climbed in x days under these conditions, then maybe they aren't so bad after all. Am I blaming Keizer, Seaver, Frodo and Stinky Feet? Heck no. I'm blaming anyone who has allowed their level of respect for the mountains to be diminished as a result of their exploits. That said, I didn't know any of the unfortunate souls who perished this winter and from that level have no idea if these observations are applicable to them. However, I think it is also pretty clear that some bad decisions were made this year by people who you would think should have known better.

 

[JohnL]

Someone may have already said this by the time I finish typing this but of the four hikers who died this year, two of the hikers were solo and the other two were in groups. So much for small samples of data. Not having read Not Without Peril, I'd be interested in knowing what percentage of those involved in accidents and/or deaths were solo. I'd venture to guess that a higher percentage were with groups. Just a hunch. I could be wrong though.

That being said, I fully agree that you increase your percentages of having help close at hand if you do not go solo. There are times when good judgement is needed that two heads are better than one. But now I'll contradict myself in saying that the solo hiker is more likely to be highly focused and is less likely to have a moment of inattention and come to harm from carelessness. Not that it's unlikely or impossible. It is just my belief that the solo hiker is less likely to be distracted since there are not others around them.

There is also the psychological belief that there is safety in numbers. While sometimes true, it is not always so. A leader of three newbies becomes incapacitated and now has to rely on the combined incompetence of the other three. That's not a recipe for automatic success. If you have a false sense of security but do not know it, you are less focused and more prone to making mistakes and bad judgements, relying on the false sense that there are others to back you up. When you are alone, the buck stops with you. There is no one else to rely on. Silverback made another very astute comparison when he talked about the experienced roofer. Indeed, familiarity can sometimes breed complacency. I've hiked this trail before and it was safe so it must be safe now.

When I hear that hikers are "experienced", I sometimes wonder how that determination is made. Experienced as compared to whom? Experienced by what standard? If they had indeed climbed Lafayette a couple times but it was in fine weather, I wonder how much experience that gives you in the conditions they encountered.

Someone earlier on HJ I think said it best. Sh** happens. It can happen to anyone, whether they are "experienced" or not. A small error in judgement, a momentary lapse of attention, bad luck, forces majeure. All can conspire to create a cascading series of events which you can become powerless to overcome once past that fickle point of no return.

I have read a ton of mountaineering books and I continue to be amazed at how easy it is for some people to die in the mountains and yet others seem to be cradled in the hands of other forces. Joe Simpson should have rightfully died at least four times in his climbing career and yet others who have more experience, more skills, more savvy have been taken to their deaths because of the slenderest of threads connecting them to a piece of bad fortune.

It's always a shame when someone dies in the mountains. I grow inwardly quiet and subdued whenever I hear this bad news. Especially yesterday when I had previously heard that they were found and rescued.

Hindsight is always 20/20 so it is usually easy to dissect their plight and figure out where they went wrong. Because, of course, something always went wrong or we would not be talking about them. There is always a point where you can say, right there is their point of no return. That is where they should have done so and so. That is where they made their mistake. It's a little like watching the World Series of Poker. It's so easy to make your bet when you know what the other guy has in his hand. Now try making a bet without knowing the other guy's cards. Now try making the hikers' decisions with them. Real time. At those moments of crisis, pressure and indecision. See how hard it is now?

JohnL

 

[brianW]

Sherpa mentioned "team rule" could I get some clarification on what it means? I just never heard that phrase while talking/reading on hiking. thanks

 

[WalksWithBlackflies]

First let me say that I feel for the family/friends of the deceased. Next, while reading my reply, please note I'm not saying that the deceased weren't properly prepared, or that I'd make better decisions. We must remember that to one degree or another, we all accept a certain amount of risk every time we hike in remote mountainous terrain... especially in winter.

Continuing on, I think you guys hit the nail on the head:

There was a time, where you saw many people carry stoves, sleeping bags, etc on a day hike just in case.

I carry a sleeping bag and bivy sack on every winter hike... a tent if I'm going solo. You wouldn't believe the looks, and sometimes comments, I get on the trail... "Why are you carrying all that weight for a day hike?", etc. I really don't think my 4-lb sleeping bag, 0.5 pound bivy are really slowing me down that much (slowing me down to a much greater degree is the extra 20-lbs around my midsection). If something unexpected happens, at least I have the bare necessities for survival.

Gone are the days when people hiked for the sheer joy of it. Now it seems that everyone has a list

Bagging a peak is not important... its just an extra bonus halfway through a nice hike. I'm prouder of the times I've swallowed my ego and turned around than the peaks I've summitted... last weekend included (see Trip Reports - Iroquois Attempt).

#2- assault on a mtn, to me = disrespect for the mtn,as to attack it with a vengence

Last year, a friend brought me to see Grace... I had no idea who she was at the time. One thing stuck in my head. She said that before each climb, she would first ask for the mountain's permission. Such a simple gesture, but it gets you in the right frame of mind.

 

[Mark Driscoll]

Silverback hit the nail on the head. We need to keep in mind that safety is very important in all that we do. I know that sometimes you can do all the right things and still get into trouble but, hiking should not become so routine, that we forget the hazards. I know that there will be some people that say it is OK to put yourself at risk but we must remember the people that will be sent out to try and save us.

I like all the information that is given out to new winter hikers at this site. Lets us not forget what we tell them. I want to be writing to all of you for many years to come!!!

Mark